AMD Stock Plummets 25% in Response to K10 Release - Investors Scared - Page 3

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Well Chief, I'm from Nevada and we're known for gambling, So I bought some AMD at 9.73. I know its high risk, but that's why I call it gambling money and its not so much that I would scream if it drops. Then again, if it goes up even a dollar I make some money. Actually, I'd like to see it so up to 15 or so, maybe with a sudden announcement that the Phenom problem was fixed. For that matter, I don't care if they make money on CPUs or graphics cards, as long as they make some money.

Dat is a big hat, though. . o O ( )

ok settle down children...

Getting back to econ 101: First off the markets expand and contract all the time. Currently it's not a wise time to invest in tech or cpu makers. For one while Intel has been doing well for sometime now there stock is still stuck in the mid to upper $20's this is way off their high. Why would you buy a range stock? Unless your happy to just receive a dividend.

Amd is in a worse position. But you have to understand tech is a boom to bust type stock. When the times are good they are really good and when times are bad things are downright awful.

Intel stock while better than Amd is nothing really to cheer about. IMHO.

It's true you should avoid investing in any company that gets paid primarily in USD {CURRENTLY}, because the dollar is likely to fall further. The reason the dollar has fallen is complex but these events have happened before throughout history.

Part of the problem is too many dollars on the market. If the FED keeps priniting money like a drunken sailor this will continue to worsen. It's common knowledge when you flood the market with something the value of if falls. Being that the USD is tied to oil payments this is another facet that makes up the USD's problem. If oil keeps going up it takes more dollars to buy it and the dollar becomes worth less and less. This is only part of the problem.

As far as US interest rates go... the FOMC is between a rock and a hard place. The subprime mess has caused liquidity crunches because all the banks are fearful to lend money... to pretty much anyone including other banks. So when they pull out there's not enough liquidity in the markets for them to function properly which is why the FED has at times had to inject billions of dollars into the market to free things up.

Interest rates have been dictated more or less by inflation or the lack thereof. Additionally if growth is above 3 -4% It's common the FED will step in raise rates to slow things down for fear inflation will come along and spoil the party. Currently fast growth is not the problem it's actually the opposite. So the FED will likely lower rates again come Dec 11. If inflation ticks back up rates will go back up and this could happen quickly due to soaring energy prices mostly.

In regard to interest rates there has been a shift in other countries that has caused the dollar's interest rate to be less than other countries like the UK, Swiss, and Japan has had very cheap swap rates for some time. By carrying these currencies or baskets of them in hopes they will appreciate because they are paying a premium over what the USD charges. [Commonly known as Carry trade]

If you've read the news lately you might have heard about carry trades unwinding etc. This usually happens when you have a one way bet and some bad news comes out that make the carry side of the trade fall apart {LOSSES}. But the Carry trade is also one facet of many that has caused the dollar to fall or exacerbate the problem.

Raising interest rates for the US would have a devastating effect if it were to happen. Countless people would be foreclosed upon, job creation would fall and so would the stock market... unemployment would rise etc. It would be very bad to say the least. Let's hope for everyone's sake the rates stay low for the time being. Next we need someone in the WhiteHouse that knows how to balance a friggin check book... we need to cut the national debt back to Y2k levels. This will inturn take $ off the open market and bring supply back in line with demand. This is my opinion what needs to happen, but you know everyone has their own opinion.

There is much more that goes into this than what I've said here, but this is a basic glimpse of what is currently going on.

About that "drunken sailer" remark. I don't print money when I'm drunk, I spend it!

As to the rest of what you wrote, its pretty much true. However, I'm a contrarian investor who buys when the market price is down. Its easy to buy when the market is doing well, but when stock A is selling at $40 in good economic times, for instance, the likelyhood of its raising higher is not much, However, if stock A drops to $10 in bad economic times, then it becomes a smart buy, because when good economic times come again, it will raise back to the area of $40, where it was in the beginning.

There are three main reasons for a stock to drop in price. One is that its products aren't selling well. How many people buy an outdated or defective product? Anybody buying Ageia Phyixs accelerator cards?

A second is that the market in general is down. Fluctuations occur in pricing, there may be a product oversupply that needs a correction. This occurs in regular cycles, whether its an oversupply of cars, houses, or any other thing. When there are multiple products that are in oversupply, the entire market gets affected and not just one sector.

A third problem is panic selling. This can occur for many reasons, but the result is generally the same. The Fed chairman coughs during a speach, an Arab leader makes a stupid comment driving up the spot price of oil, whatever. The market reacts and a blind selloff starts. Companies that are in no difficulty what-so-ever get brought down because brokers go into a sell mode. At some point in time, the brokers wake up and start buying again. The reasoning behind the buy back may have as little good reason as the selloff. It doesn't matter the reason, what matters is the results.

You mention Intel and AMD. Ok, Intel is a huge company and the current price war is hurting it, but because of its sheer size it can take quite a beating and keep on going. AMD is tiny in comparison. It makes a mistake and the damage is far greater in proportion. Then again, if it does something good that sells well, it effect is equally great in its bottom line. AMD has had a bad year, but I personally think it will recover. The new ATI line of cards are selling well. Phenom has some problems, but they might well get fixed one way or another. Barcelona is selling ok, not a standout, but ok. With the Arab investment, the next year might be a lot better. I think the fact of the Arabs investing hints that something good will be happening, as they have analyzed the company and they wouldn't throw away money on what they thought was a looser. Personally, I think AMD is a great buy, though one that takes some patience. AMD was over $40 less then two years ago. At $10 a share, it has very good growth potential. I'm not saying that it will go up to $40 again, but it could well reach $20 or more within a couple years, maybe less, and that would be a good investment in any terms.

Ooooooooooooookkkk.....

It also might surprise you that rainbows come out of my butt and......

And your point of this is?

Of course, Intel is in far better financial position than AMD at the moment, as most people can guess.

Well, things don't look so rosy for AMD now do they?!

Sometimes I wish Intel didn't own so bad right now, but then again they've been pretty good with their price.

Ok. As far as how far the market is down, I was hearing it said a day ago that the market is down by over 10%, thus making the present situation a "Correction" of overpricing. The meaning of this is that hopefully the market will turn back up again. If it continues to go down, then the predictors get far more serious in the overall consequences.

Anyone buying gold these days? Last I read, it was almost $800 an ounce. I really should have bought more last winter.

Though I could be wrong, I'd expect that if AMD drops much below $7, it will end up being bought out, even if by hostile takeover. IBM has a bit of a claim on AMD and that's the first company I'd look to for a takeover bid. There's a couple others that might make a bid. If IBM took over, it could be a very good thing for AMD shareholders. Can't say about any others.

I expect oil may be going up a lot next week. Chaves has threatened to end all exports from Venezuela next week if he doesn't win the elections. Not sure how he'd stop exports if he looses, unless he somehow destroys the wells adn/or the refineries. Even if nothing happens, the oil traders will probably push the spot price way up. Best fill the car up with gas tomorrow.

I've made a bunch of money trading AMD this year as well, probably more than all my other investments. Some people hate volatility, but I see it as opportunity. I have a bunch of AMD shares from a higher price as well. I'm hoping to balance that with what I bought yesterday. Can only wait and see how things go.

And that's how investors make money. Its not buying $500 or $1000 dollars of stock, holding and hoping, and then selling for small gains after paying the brokerage fees. Its buying 500 or 1000 or more shares and then selling for large gains.

Of course, there's a risk factor. If you buy a lot and it drops, well, let's just say I didn't buy a new sailboat because of what the market has done these last several weeks. Now I am holding, waiting, and hoping. Ok, I've bought a bunch of stock in a number of companies at these cheap prices. If the market goes back up to what it was before the sell off, I buy the sailboat and have enough to do some world cruising. If it keeps dropping, well, beans and pancakes aren't that bad, are they?

Um, it could have something to do with the fact that AMD is an American company, and he meant that he wanted a good company to buy it, as opposed to a bad company, since he obviously doesn't want AMD to fail. But you saw "good" and "american" next to each other, and decided that was politically incorrect because we all know America is the devil.

blah blah blah, America is corrupt, blah blah blah,we've heard it all before. US politicians may be corrupt, but newsflash, so are most government figures from any county, and I'd say we have it a lot better here than any other county. I thought our government was bad for a while, till I saw what was actually going on in other countries.

They were, now theyre not.

Im surprised your but has the bandwidth to spare for rainbows and your posts all together

Ah, so many things... like no government, or king, or anyone of any authority at alll... which is great until you realise they wanted it to continue their loony religous practices.

And the problem with America, so-to-speak is that in practice they fall far short of their ideals. I'm going to get shot for that... but hey, as I said I like playing Devils Advocate. Your tenets are freedom of thought... provided you don't disagree with your government (cf Patriot act\getting into your country). Your ideals are democracy... in a country with a 98% incumbancy rate, a court that is non-elected and partisan, and a President that is... illegal. Your dream is to work hard and acheive... in a country where politcal and celebrety dynasities are common; there is massive gender and ethnic disparity of wealth and opportunity, and the top 1% of the nation own 40% of the wealth.

It's not that the rest of the world dislikes America... its just theres a difference between what they say and what they are. And, whilst you might point out its the same for the rest of us - and you're right - we a) dont have the bomb and b) don't have the cultural hegemony and c) dont have the Fundamentalist Christians acting as "Leaders" for the rest of us.

America is great - we just get dissapointed when you fail to reach your own standards.

and [/rant]... breathe...

Apologies... for all concerned.

I agree with all the comments that the Phenom is one of a number of symptom and not the reason for AMD stock sinking. The market isn't that smart!! They can see a company hemmoraging money though!!

Actually (in response to earlier posts) the Phenom architecture is quite well engineered. The problem is simply that AMD don't have the $$$ to research better process technologies to build the actual chips... I am sure the chips would fly if they weren't running 1Ghz too slow...

Personally I don't think ATI are doing too great either. Not since they haven't held the performance crown since the Radeon X1900XT(X)!! If I was getting a new card just now it wouldn't be ATI (and I have an 512Mb X1950 Pro just now for the record)!! They are also aiming for the more budget end as the 8800 GTX/Ultra 768Mb still hold the top (v.) expensive end!! That means lower revenues per card. ATI really need to pull another 1900 type architectural leap out of the hat to help AMD out a bit - till they can get bought out anyway....

Bob

There losing because there losing $500 million a quarter (see front page news), the competition provides an overall better product, lenders are tightening there belts, money is more expensive and AMD have a piles of debt on there books which they need to service and pay back.

Oh spongebob, take your head from out of your bottom. Keep up with the news concerning this subject.

On the points youve brought up, I will say that that it is nailed on the 3850 & 3870 will sell very well, given the buzz around them at the present time. Saying they wont is like saying the 320mb gts wouldnt sell well, when it came out, or some other good 'great performance for the money' card from the past.

AMD are aiming low with the phenom I would speculate. That is not going for the top performance segment of the market, but the low and medium range, and a 'new', 'true' 'quad-core' cpu is exceedingly attractive from a marketing point of view. Impressive sounding and pressing all the right buttons in the minds of 'mom and pop' looking in the shops and online vendors for their first/next pc. Remember the gigahertz wars.

My, aren't you a class act...

So, no links then, eh?

No sir, you brought them up. I was merely wondering whether you were offering opinion or whether you might be able to site any reptutable sources that support you point of view.

I never said they wouldn't sell well. You tossed out a guesstimate of hundreds of thousands... I'm just curious where you got your numbers.

One might also argue that being able to claim the performance crown at the high end is also a valuable marketing tool - "The Q6600, from the makers of the best performing x86 processor". Sounds silly, but that's exactly what ATI did with the 1900 - on the box: "From the makers of the fastest GPU on the planet".


Having said all that, any links to support your other assertions?

I didnt post links that were 2 years old. Where did i do that? That was another user I think.

To the last 3 guys who quoted/replied off my post, yes it might sound like a load of hokum, but take OFF your informed person hat and put ON your uninformed one. Those who dont take an interest in pcs or gaming, or no nothing about substantial about the general subject, can both easily be baffled and impressed by the words "native quad core" or what have you. Numbers and impressive sounding names and features CAN sway many a uninformed consumer when confronted by them by the salesman or tv or newprint adverts upon pondering or buying a new / first pc. Yes it sounds guff but yes it is very much marketable. Yes it iss dumn but architectural specifications and impressive adjectives are to consumers what shiny things are to magpies. Hence p4s were very successful products for intel, hence amd and cyrix used the pr/+ system to mark their products, hence people will buy cheap crap gpus with 512mb of vram because they think that high number has an effect or donates real ability. You can debate the merits and falsehoods of this entire way people are irrationally influenced by advertising, but gentleman, it is real, it is happening right now, and it will continue to go on.

The gigahertz wars were indeed pathetic, and it eventually all came a little undone for intel, but win it, in that they pulled the wool over many peoples eyes and made alot of money from a poor product, they certainly did. I know I know a better product makes better advertising, but a poor product can also be spun very well. #see above.

But again, if someone who's not enthusiasts, why would a quad core interest them? For the group you just described, they could've still live in "gigahertz > anything". Those people could've buy a Dell, an Hp, or a Gateway. Do they have Phenom in their product lineup?

For the enthusiasts crowd, its pretty obvious how well Phenom is selling. You can look around this forum, and see how many people actually bought Phenom, and how many people bought Q6600.

Who will really buy Phenom? Have you asked that question yourself?

That is assuming, AMD pours in a sizable amount of PR into spinning. Unfortunately, AMD doesn't do that, and has no financial mean to pull off what Intel did to P4.

Again, Intel poured in large amount of money into PR. AMD doesn't.

The difference is that I back my claims up (many times, but not all the time) with facts. You just make claims and NEVER back them up with facts.

If I post about AMD's finances, I reference stock prices, assets, debt, etc. You merely just say, "Well, I'm an optimist so I believe they are doing well despite having alarming losses that have sent their stock from $40 a share down to $9."

I wouldnt say I was being optimistic, just observing that the good ship amd with its 5 mile turning circle, doesnt seem to be taking on as much water as it was, it might even be bailing some of it out as we speak. AMD does seem rather hard done by as far as share prices go, but a large company in uncertain times in an uncertain stock market with lots of debt has to expect the rough with the smooth. Lets light the blue touch paper again when q4 results come out

...all this replying is cutting into my link finding time you know...

You mean, ignore that one? That's basically one of the important things to look at. Why? Cause at lower resolutions, the CPU is taking allot of the load. Higher resolutions, the GPU does more, hence why you don't see a difference.

And what ya know... this is what it says below that cap:

I don't think AMD's stock value will see much of an increase until Hector is replaced. Irregardless of whether or not someone could do any better - investors have lost confidence in him, and investor confidence is what makes or breaks a listed company.

Again, no links. TBH I feel like you're just giving out words based on your opinions, not facts. We'll see how AMD does once their Q4 earning is out. I don't expect a large increase from the desktop segment.

http://image.ak.outpost.com/art/re [...] .11508.pdf <= rebates for Diamond 3870/3850.

3870 will be a great deal, but probably only to those with Xfire boards. Dell was selling 8800GT @ 210USD a pop. But I agree, RV670 will probably be a break even for ATi, and cover up some losses from R600 debacle. To say it will be profitable is a little stretching it.