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Analysts: 20 Million BB10 Devices Will Be Active by Year's End

By - Source: ABI Research | B 18 comments

BlackBerry 10 should have a good foundation before the end of the year.

ABI Research claims that RIM, or rather the newly-christened BlackBerry, will have 20 million BlackBerry 10 smartphones in active use by the end of the year. The firm also expects to see 45 million Windows Phone devices activated before the arrival of 2014. But how will these platforms fare after December 31?

"The greatest fear for both Microsoft and BlackBerry is that the initial sales of their smartphones will disappoint and thereby kill off the developer interest, which then would effectively close the window of opportunity on further sales success," said Senior analyst Aapo Markkanen.

But the pre-existing consumer base of the prior-generation platforms (aka BB9, WP7) should be large enough to keep these two in the game. It will definitely also help that both firms have actively kept the developers’ interest in mind while designing and rolling out their new platforms, he said.

The firm said on Thursday that on a more global, multi-platform scale, 1.4 billion smartphones will be in use before the end of 2013. Unsurprisingly, 57-percent of these will run on Android and 21-percent on iOS, thus leaving 22-percent of the market to BlackBerry 10, Windows Phone 8 and other mobile platforms (like Firefox OS).

On the tablet front, there will be 268 million units in active use by the end of 2013, with 62-percent offered by Apple and 28-percent using Google's Android OS. Microsoft is also expected to have 5.5 million Windows-powered tablets, having launched both Surface RT, Surface Pro and related products offered by OEMs. The annual growth rate against 2012 will be 44-percent for smartphones and 125-percent for tablets, the firm said.

"Despite of Apple’s and Google’s strong hold of the market, ABI Research anticipates that the future won’t be quite as duopolistic as it may seem now," the report said.

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Contact Us for News Tips, Corrections and Feedback

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Top Comments
  • 22 Hide
    merikafyeah , February 3, 2013 4:09 PM
    deftonianhere goes another analyst prediction. They're just like the Mayans... wrong.

    The Mayans weren't wrong. ("Wrong" implies they made some kind of statement)
    Some morons who claimed to understand the Mayan calendar were wrong.
  • 14 Hide
    chicofehr , February 3, 2013 4:39 PM
    Analysts =A modern version of a psychic who makes predictions based on who is paying him at the time.
Other Comments
  • -1 Hide
    deftonian , February 3, 2013 3:19 PM
    here goes another analyst prediction. They're just like the Mayans... wrong.
  • 22 Hide
    merikafyeah , February 3, 2013 4:09 PM
    deftonianhere goes another analyst prediction. They're just like the Mayans... wrong.

    The Mayans weren't wrong. ("Wrong" implies they made some kind of statement)
    Some morons who claimed to understand the Mayan calendar were wrong.
  • 14 Hide
    chicofehr , February 3, 2013 4:39 PM
    Analysts =A modern version of a psychic who makes predictions based on who is paying him at the time.
  • 8 Hide
    dan-fish , February 3, 2013 5:30 PM
    An analyst must have an easy life. I bet 5 year olds could make better predictions than this. How does one become an analyst?
  • 0 Hide
    redeemer , February 3, 2013 7:37 PM
    You morons forget things like marketing, manfacturing, licensing costs! Sure over here in North America it is a very tough market but overseas! BB10 devices will be eaten up, so 20 million might be too low?
  • 1 Hide
    Vorador2 , February 3, 2013 7:54 PM
    The worst thing about analyst is that most of the time they're like an oracle. If they're right, all happy. If they're wrong, they just shrug their shoulders and put the blame elsewhere.

    After all, they're gonna get paid anyway.
  • -2 Hide
    Thunderfox , February 3, 2013 8:19 PM
    BB10 is just the os. How many current devices will be updated?
  • 2 Hide
    omnimodis78 , February 3, 2013 8:48 PM
    I am so tired of Android (on Samsung phones), and on principle refuse to buy an iPhone that's made in sweatshops - so, come October I'm getting a BB. Something about "Made in Canada" actually seems to get something aroused in me... It might be a bad decision, who knows, but I've never owned a BB and I want to give it a go.
  • 1 Hide
    gamersglory , February 3, 2013 9:09 PM
    omnimodis78I am so tired of Android (on Samsung phones), and on principle refuse to buy an iPhone that's made in sweatshops - so, come October I'm getting a BB. Something about "Made in Canada" actually seems to get something aroused in me... It might be a bad decision, who knows, but I've never owned a BB and I want to give it a go.


    Pretty much every cellphone is made in in a sweatshop. But Foxconn who makes the iphone is one of the better jobs in china
  • 0 Hide
    scannall , February 3, 2013 10:26 PM
    omnimodis78I am so tired of Android (on Samsung phones), and on principle refuse to buy an iPhone that's made in sweatshops - so, come October I'm getting a BB. Something about "Made in Canada" actually seems to get something aroused in me... It might be a bad decision, who knows, but I've never owned a BB and I want to give it a go.


    If you were purchasing a smartphone on principle, you would never have purchased a Samsung. Nokia until recently was manufactured in Europe.
  • 2 Hide
    faer , February 3, 2013 10:40 PM
    Just someone with a bunch of blackberry stock. Probably wasn't smart enough to sell when they were going down and wants to break even now.
  • -1 Hide
    TheMadFapper , February 3, 2013 11:02 PM
    Um...no. 12 million max and they'll all be overseas and those hardcore loyal business users. I work at a Fortune 500 company and most of them are equally as reluctant to accept a brand new OS for use in the office (company issued phones). So really this is kind of a ridiculous prediction. We're still on iPhone 4's. Not 4S.
  • -2 Hide
    anti-painkilla , February 3, 2013 11:38 PM
    Correction:

    Blackberry Paid Independent Analysts: 20 Million BB10 Devices Will Be Active by Year's End
  • 0 Hide
    mihaimm , February 4, 2013 11:00 AM
    I remember the times when everybody was looking at Palm Pre to be the iPhone killer.

    To sell 20Mil+ BB10 will have to be on devices that are
    - iPhone killers
    - S3 killers
    - Lumia killers

    Kind of tough...
  • 0 Hide
    CaedenV , February 4, 2013 1:50 PM
    omnimodis78I am so tired of Android (on Samsung phones), and on principle refuse to buy an iPhone that's made in sweatshops - so, come October I'm getting a BB. Something about "Made in Canada" actually seems to get something aroused in me... It might be a bad decision, who knows, but I've never owned a BB and I want to give it a go.

    Almost all phones are made in sweatshops. The only reason Apple gets outed all the time is because they take their sweatshop phone and sell it as if the cost of manufacturing was in America.

    Amazingly, my Nokia is made by Nokia, in a Nokia factory, by Nokia employees. Not saying it is not a sweatshop of sorts, but if there are problems Nokia deals with them and takes responsibility rather than attempting to shift the blame on some 3rd party. On top of that they still produce a better phone for a better price than Apple, all while turning a profit (just not the insane profit that Apple makes).
    mihaimmI remember the times when everybody was looking at Palm Pre to be the iPhone killer. To sell 20Mil+ BB10 will have to be on devices that are- iPhone killers- S3 killers- Lumia killersKind of tough...

    Agreed. I like the new PalmOS, but I am afraid that most of the sales are just going to be to people who miss their old BB devices.
    If MS had any advertising sense they would sell WP8 devices as business phones. All of the features are there and work great... but instead they try and sell it as the hipster phone to try and get more app sales. But if they did have a business focus they could eat up the BB market without much trouble at all.
  • 0 Hide
    dalethepcman , February 4, 2013 2:59 PM
    Honestly, I just don't see it. It doesn't matter how good their BB OS 10 is, BlackBerry is a dead product with their current business model.

    Only selling the devices using the "in house" name of BlackBerry doesn't do any good when everyone wants a Galaxy S3, or iPhone. If they licensed this software out to other manufacturers at a cost of $0.00, then they would sell devices by the truckload.
  • 1 Hide
    dozerman , February 4, 2013 3:00 PM
    I believe it. It's an incredibly good phone that fills in a space between the uber-open spyware vounerable android and the super-closed iOS that IS spyware. I've been rocking a playbook for the last year or so, and when I got my note, it pissed me off how much less intuitive it was, and I expect 10 to be even easier to use.