Analysts: 20 Million BB10 Devices Will Be Active by Year's End

ABI Research claims that RIM, or rather the newly-christened BlackBerry, will have 20 million BlackBerry 10 smartphones in active use by the end of the year. The firm also expects to see 45 million Windows Phone devices activated before the arrival of 2014. But how will these platforms fare after December 31?

"The greatest fear for both Microsoft and BlackBerry is that the initial sales of their smartphones will disappoint and thereby kill off the developer interest, which then would effectively close the window of opportunity on further sales success," said Senior analyst Aapo Markkanen.

But the pre-existing consumer base of the prior-generation platforms (aka BB9, WP7) should be large enough to keep these two in the game. It will definitely also help that both firms have actively kept the developers’ interest in mind while designing and rolling out their new platforms, he said.

The firm said on Thursday that on a more global, multi-platform scale, 1.4 billion smartphones will be in use before the end of 2013. Unsurprisingly, 57-percent of these will run on Android and 21-percent on iOS, thus leaving 22-percent of the market to BlackBerry 10, Windows Phone 8 and other mobile platforms (like Firefox OS).

On the tablet front, there will be 268 million units in active use by the end of 2013, with 62-percent offered by Apple and 28-percent using Google's Android OS. Microsoft is also expected to have 5.5 million Windows-powered tablets, having launched both Surface RT, Surface Pro and related products offered by OEMs. The annual growth rate against 2012 will be 44-percent for smartphones and 125-percent for tablets, the firm said.

"Despite of Apple’s and Google’s strong hold of the market, ABI Research anticipates that the future won’t be quite as duopolistic as it may seem now," the report said.

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  • deftonian
    here goes another analyst prediction. They're just like the Mayans... wrong.
    Reply
  • merikafyeah
    deftonianhere goes another analyst prediction. They're just like the Mayans... wrong.The Mayans weren't wrong. ("Wrong" implies they made some kind of statement)
    Some morons who claimed to understand the Mayan calendar were wrong.
    Reply
  • deftonian
    Whoa buddy, come to the defense of the mayans much? Okay okay, it wasn't the mayans that were incorrect, it was the other analysts that made predictions based on what mayans produced. So either way, my point stands.
    Reply
  • chicofehr
    Analysts =A modern version of a psychic who makes predictions based on who is paying him at the time.
    Reply
  • dan-fish
    An analyst must have an easy life. I bet 5 year olds could make better predictions than this. How does one become an analyst?
    Reply
  • redeemer
    You morons forget things like marketing, manfacturing, licensing costs! Sure over here in North America it is a very tough market but overseas! BB10 devices will be eaten up, so 20 million might be too low?
    Reply
  • Vorador2
    The worst thing about analyst is that most of the time they're like an oracle. If they're right, all happy. If they're wrong, they just shrug their shoulders and put the blame elsewhere.

    After all, they're gonna get paid anyway.
    Reply
  • Thunderfox
    BB10 is just the os. How many current devices will be updated?
    Reply
  • omnimodis78
    I am so tired of Android (on Samsung phones), and on principle refuse to buy an iPhone that's made in sweatshops - so, come October I'm getting a BB. Something about "Made in Canada" actually seems to get something aroused in me... It might be a bad decision, who knows, but I've never owned a BB and I want to give it a go.
    Reply
  • gamersglory
    omnimodis78I am so tired of Android (on Samsung phones), and on principle refuse to buy an iPhone that's made in sweatshops - so, come October I'm getting a BB. Something about "Made in Canada" actually seems to get something aroused in me... It might be a bad decision, who knows, but I've never owned a BB and I want to give it a go.
    Pretty much every cellphone is made in in a sweatshop. But Foxconn who makes the iphone is one of the better jobs in china
    Reply