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iSuppli: Expect DRAM Prices to Climb

By - Source: IHS | B 9 comments

Elpida may be disappearing soon, but it appears that the bad news is being replaced with an overall positive outlook for the DRAM industry.

Few markets are used to being financially rattled as dramatically as the memory industry, so it may be seen as good news that the analysts at IHS iSuppli have found that DRAM inventory continues to drop. IHS iSuppli estimates that inventory now stands at 11.6 weeks, down 4 percent from 12.1 weeks in the fourth quarter of 2011. Keep in mind that inventory levels steadily rose throughout 2011.

"The latest drop in the Inventory Index is due primarily to an aggressive stockpile burn-off from Japanese supplier Elpida Memory, which declared bankruptcy in February," said Clifford Leimbach, analyst for memory demand forecasting at IHS.

"The action taken by Elpida—and the resulting drop in overall inventory levels for the industry in the first quarter—is a one-time event unlikely to be repeated. Even so, the reduction in stockpiles in early 2012 means that pricing should continue to strengthen in the second half of the year."

Stronger demand, of course, mean that DRAM is likely to get more expensive again. Average pricing for DRAM in the 1 gigabit-equivalent density is estimated to have risen by 1.5 percent in the second quarter, IHS said. the company believes that DRAM will see another 7.7 percent gain in the current third quarter and a 3.5 percent in the fourth quarters. In Q3 and Q4 of 2011, DRAM dropped by 24 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively.

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  • -2 Hide
    drwho1 , July 18, 2012 4:52 PM
    iSuppli: Expect DRAM Prices to Climb

    Translation: Expect DRAM stock in some pile on some warehouse until prices drop again to their senses.
  • 0 Hide
    rooket , July 18, 2012 5:59 PM
    I'm still amazed that I could buy 12GB of DDR3 for $28 AR 2 days before black friday. How can they make any money that way? I remember when RAM was so expensive that there would be stories circulating of Russian maphia using grapple hooks to climb into RAM factories and steal a bunch of expensive goods. These days, that would definitely not happen because 1 gig of RAM costs $5 rather than 1 megabyte used to cost about $50.

    DDR2 prices are nuts too. I see that 1 gig is like $1.10 but I haven't seen it sell that low. I see 4GB kits selling for $40 on ebay even though they're only worth about 4 bucks in reality.

    I am guessing that once everyone shifts to DDR5 in PCs they can overprice it and then start making a profit again.
  • 5 Hide
    stevenrix , July 18, 2012 6:16 PM
    I bought 32 megs of RAM 15 years ago for $1500.
  • 4 Hide
    jupiter optimus maximus , July 18, 2012 7:10 PM
    I doubt that i will ever see 100% spike in ram prices anytime soon.
  • 0 Hide
    alidan , July 18, 2012 10:59 PM
    rooketI'm still amazed that I could buy 12GB of DDR3 for $28 AR 2 days before black friday. How can they make any money that way? I remember when RAM was so expensive that there would be stories circulating of Russian maphia using grapple hooks to climb into RAM factories and steal a bunch of expensive goods. These days, that would definitely not happen because 1 gig of RAM costs $5 rather than 1 megabyte used to cost about $50.DDR2 prices are nuts too. I see that 1 gig is like $1.10 but I haven't seen it sell that low. I see 4GB kits selling for $40 on ebay even though they're only worth about 4 bucks in reality.I am guessing that once everyone shifts to DDR5 in PCs they can overprice it and then start making a profit again.


    i want 2 8gb kits. yes i can use that much ram, what for... not saying, i know the reason i could use it is stupid, but those things are 100-200$, a kit... sad that i am one of the few who would still buy that.
  • 0 Hide
    QEFX , July 18, 2012 11:01 PM
    stevenrixI bought 32 megs of RAM 15 years ago for $1500.


    Ha, got you on that one. We had a 486dx50 workstation with 16 slots. 4MB sticks were going for, after tax, almost $500 each. That $8k nut was hard to swallow .. for 64MB. How times have changed, thankfully.
  • 0 Hide
    chewy1963 , July 19, 2012 4:10 AM
    stevenrixI bought 32 megs of RAM 15 years ago for $1500.


    That was back in the 'Great Epoxy Plant Fire Period' in the early 90's. I bought 4 1-meg sticks (30 pin SIMMs) for $250 and that was a deal.
  • 0 Hide
    tomfreak , July 19, 2012 4:25 AM
    I guess b4 the RAM raise, I gonna get another 8GB ram kit to make my system 16GB and forget every RAM for the next 5yrs, since that pretty much more than enough for everything for 1155 socket platform.
  • 1 Hide
    stingstang , July 20, 2012 11:25 AM
    QEFXHa, got you on that one. We had a 486dx50 workstation with 16 slots. 4MB sticks were going for, after tax, almost $500 each. That $8k nut was hard to swallow .. for 64MB. How times have changed, thankfully.

    o.O