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Analyst Hits Nvidia Outlook, Stresses Importance of Non-PC

By - Source: Forbes | B 23 comments

The third quarter was a breather for Nvidia, but it appears that financial analysts have begun zeroing in on the company with product concerns again.

Those rather short-term concerns are, for the most part, focused on the company's core business: GPUs for PCs. Forbes reported that Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer cut his rating on Nvidia shares to Perform from Outperform and canceled his $17 price target for the company.

That was a rather dramatic move, given Nvidia's strategy to diversify its business. However, Schafer still indicated that any exposure to the PC business is not seen as an advantage these days. Forbes quoted him saying that Nvidia is "the only traditional PC vendor with a credible mobile diversification strategy," while adding that "most of its GPU share gains are now reflected in estimates" and cautioning "the absence of share gains leaves [Nvidia] increasingly exposed to secularly declining PC units."

Translation: If you depend on the PC these days, you are screwed.

Schafer's advice was to leave Nvidia alone for the time being and wait until Nvidia's non-PC business becomes "more meaningful". Of course, that non-PC business has also its issues, especially since Nvidia had high hopes for Microsoft's Surface RT tablet. If it is true that Microsoft is cutting Surface RT order from four to two million units in Q4, Nvidia is sitting on two million Tegra 3 processors that had been reserved for Microsoft's tablet. Windows RT may also have some launch issues, further impacting Nvidia's Tegra 3 sales.

However, Nvidia is one of those tech companies that may be easily able to wait out the current recession and any Windows 8 problems. The company has more than $3.4 billion cash on hand.

 

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  • 21 Hide
    bucknutty , December 10, 2012 12:35 PM
    Being a financial analyst must be a fun job. You get to use big words over and over and spew complete BS as long as you mix in a tiny bit of common sense every one will listen and even publish what you say. You never need to be correct and you still get paid.

    OK so here is my first go at being an analyst for Q1 of 2013. Due to the laborization of the labor pool in the industry the labor rate will go up. As a result we will see prices on electronics go up. Profits will go down for many electronics manufactures but this will not affect the share holders because the manufactures will simply cut jobs to balance the cost of laborization.

    That being said the benchmarks of the Tegra 3 are pretty impressive so I think Nvidia will be fine in the near future.
  • 11 Hide
    drwho1 , December 10, 2012 12:48 PM
    ... started reading nonsense ...
    ... noticed the name Wolfgang ....
    ... stopped reading ...
  • 11 Hide
    tburns1 , December 10, 2012 12:57 PM
    bucknuttyBeing a financial analyst must be a fun job. You get to use big words over and over and spew complete BS as long as you mix in a tiny bit of common sense every one will listen and even publish what you say. You never need to be correct and you still get paid.OK so here is my first go at being an analyst for Q1 of 2013. Due to the laborization of the labor pool in the industry the labor rate will go up. As a result we will see prices on electronics go up. Profits will go down for many electronics manufactures but this will not affect the share holders because the manufactures will simply cut jobs to balance the cost of laborization.That being said the benchmarks of the Tegra 3 are pretty impressive so I think Nvidia will be fine in the near future.

    Please take my money.
Other Comments
  • 4 Hide
    ivanto , December 10, 2012 12:33 PM
    Clayton Christensen's disruption classic - incumbents don't enter the new market until it's big enough, but when they enter, the market is already occupied by entrants. And, incumbents can't compete.

    nVidia relies on Microsoft gaining market hare. While MS is too late to the party where iOS and Android are rocking.
    -IvanTO
  • 21 Hide
    bucknutty , December 10, 2012 12:35 PM
    Being a financial analyst must be a fun job. You get to use big words over and over and spew complete BS as long as you mix in a tiny bit of common sense every one will listen and even publish what you say. You never need to be correct and you still get paid.

    OK so here is my first go at being an analyst for Q1 of 2013. Due to the laborization of the labor pool in the industry the labor rate will go up. As a result we will see prices on electronics go up. Profits will go down for many electronics manufactures but this will not affect the share holders because the manufactures will simply cut jobs to balance the cost of laborization.

    That being said the benchmarks of the Tegra 3 are pretty impressive so I think Nvidia will be fine in the near future.
  • 11 Hide
    drwho1 , December 10, 2012 12:48 PM
    ... started reading nonsense ...
    ... noticed the name Wolfgang ....
    ... stopped reading ...
  • 8 Hide
    CaedenV , December 10, 2012 12:54 PM
    This is something I always feel bad about for publicly traded companies. Nvidia has seen the issues of future GPU market decline for years, and they have made appropriate moves to diversify themselves. They have a profitable business model, growing CPU sales, and steady GPU sales. They are doing just fine, and will not be going anywhere soon.

    When there is an emerging market (like the current ARM market) where there are a multitude of players, it is more important to get your foot in the door and offer solid products that have a good margin. Grow too fast in this new market and you loose your ability to keep the company's growth in balance. The last thing you want to do is have 1 good product, spend all your money on increasing production, and then loosing track of R&D, or marketing, or internal costs in the form of retirement or benefits plans.

    nVidia is doing pretty good so far. They have a decent road map, and are sticking to it. They are not turning into AMD where they have to sell off parts of their company every year in order to keep afloat.
  • 11 Hide
    tburns1 , December 10, 2012 12:57 PM
    bucknuttyBeing a financial analyst must be a fun job. You get to use big words over and over and spew complete BS as long as you mix in a tiny bit of common sense every one will listen and even publish what you say. You never need to be correct and you still get paid.OK so here is my first go at being an analyst for Q1 of 2013. Due to the laborization of the labor pool in the industry the labor rate will go up. As a result we will see prices on electronics go up. Profits will go down for many electronics manufactures but this will not affect the share holders because the manufactures will simply cut jobs to balance the cost of laborization.That being said the benchmarks of the Tegra 3 are pretty impressive so I think Nvidia will be fine in the near future.

    Please take my money.
  • 8 Hide
    Old_Fogie_Late_Bloomer , December 10, 2012 1:06 PM
    bucknuttyBeing a financial analyst must be a fun job. You get to use big words over and over...

    "secularly declining PC units"

    I saw that and was like, "Dafuq did I just read?" Seriously, I consider myself to have a strong vocabulary and that is the first time I have ever seen the word "secular" used according to Merriam-Webster's 3c definition: "of or relating to a long term of indefinite duration". I didn't even know the word could mean that. :p 

    Also, I still think there's a lot of overly-enthusiastic doom-and-gloom talk about "The End of PCs as We Know Them!!1" Are PCs going through a decline now? Yes, because consumers have decided that other form factors can do the things that they previously needed laptops to do. But we're hardly at the point yet where laptops can be completely replaced by tablets, and I think that we'll see a bottoming out of that decline.
  • 4 Hide
    amdwilliam1985 , December 10, 2012 1:18 PM
    ivantonVidia relies on Microsoft gaining market hare. While MS is too late to the party where iOS and Android are rocking.-IvanTO


    Nvidia has plenty of other Android devices running on their tegra 3, for example, Nexus 7 and HTC One X. But tegra 3 is getting really old now, please work on and bring out tegra 4 already.
  • 8 Hide
    ojas , December 10, 2012 1:54 PM
    Let's not forget, Wolfgang is an analyst himself so he loves spreading the BS that his brothers and sisters spew out.
  • 1 Hide
    ivanto , December 10, 2012 1:57 PM
    amdwilliam1985Nvidia has plenty of other Android devices running on their tegra 3, for example, Nexus 7 and HTC One X. But tegra 3 is getting really old now, please work on and bring out tegra 4 already.


    Fully agree AmdWilliam 1985
    nVidia's early move into mobile was a critical decision for and I think they will do fine.
    -IvanTO
  • 0 Hide
    scook9 , December 10, 2012 2:27 PM
    Tegra 3 is pretty much considered a mainstream part for tablets now, in phones they are ok but not the favorite by far. Nvidia needs to get Tegra 4 with A15 cores and a much better GPU (Mali 400 destroyed Tegra 3....) to regain traction.

    Beginning of 2012 Tegra 3 was the chip to have but that has quickly passed in lieu of the nice silicon coming out of Samsung and Qualcomm. It has been a year now and they need to get those designs out the door and into partner OEM devices asap. As is, they will fail to stay competitive - optimized games for tablets is not enough to carry them anymore.
  • 1 Hide
    TeraMedia , December 10, 2012 2:32 PM
    What is more unfortunate about this is that it repeats the signal that R&D $ on discrete GPUs is rapidly approaching an end. Already there is not enough market for NV to continue investing at anywhere near their historic rate on GPU technology. As APUs/iGPUs get better, the market for dGPUs shrinks. Rather than a 6- or 12-month release cycle with near 2x the performance, the time to achieve that level of change will most likely increase to 2x or even 4x as long. Meanwhile, as iGPUs increase their total contribution to the value of processors sold, R&D on them will increase. The bottom of the market will improve at a faster rate, but the top will stagnate. Since enthusiasts participate in the top of the market, we lose - at least in the short-term.
  • 0 Hide
    cats_Paw , December 10, 2012 2:42 PM
    nVidia is in my opinion a great company, and does a good job (many other companies could learn from them).

    I have a gaming laptop, and no ipad, smartphone. Maybe i am an exception and the big majority of the population does not buy laptops anymore, but nVidia still does a decent job with their table processors, and as far as i know they have big plans for the future.

    We will see if the analysts are right or wrong i guess, but for me this is just speculation (and thats what got ues in trouble in the first place with banks speculating on how much they could gain).
  • 0 Hide
    Cazalan , December 10, 2012 4:18 PM
    It's true they don't have a breakaway product. Tegra4 is due soon, but there are several A15 designs coming out in 2013.

    NVidia is in a much better position than AMD financially, but they're both getting squeezed by much bigger players. Samsung, Apple, Qualcomm, Intel.

    A rating of "Perform" isn't bad considering.
  • 0 Hide
    alidan , December 10, 2012 5:24 PM
    ivantoClayton Christensen's disruption classic - incumbents don't enter the new market until it's big enough, but when they enter, the market is already occupied by entrants. And, incumbents can't compete.nVidia relies on Microsoft gaining market hare. While MS is too late to the party where iOS and Android are rocking.-IvanTO


    microsoft isnt to late with their arm windows, they are just to expensive for their own good.

    the ipad and android both have an ecosystem that you cant compete with out of the gate, ios more or less locked down the 500+ range while android is trying to lock down the 200 range...

    ideally microsoft would put out a 2-300$ table at cost, meaning they break even, and try to get market share by offering a better product than those around it.

    make if for businesses, make it for the people who are cheap, and after a bit of time, go up to the 5-600$ range with minimal profit off each unit sold, out preform ios so massively they cant compete, dominate from the bottom up, make others play your game.

    but microsoft, at least with the arm variant, failed to realise they arent cool, they arent new, and they offer nothing there that android ro ios don't already do for cheaper.

    bucknuttyBeing a financial analyst must be a fun job. You get to use big words over and over and spew complete BS as long as you mix in a tiny bit of common sense every one will listen and even publish what you say. You never need to be correct and you still get paid.OK so here is my first go at being an analyst for Q1 of 2013. Due to the laborization of the labor pool in the industry the labor rate will go up. As a result we will see prices on electronics go up. Profits will go down for many electronics manufactures but this will not affect the share holders because the manufactures will simply cut jobs to balance the cost of laborization.That being said the benchmarks of the Tegra 3 are pretty impressive so I think Nvidia will be fine in the near future.


    you look at finantial records, look at past ones, and try to predict where things are going.
    in some cases you are privy to details that are not public yet, or not known in plain english and need to be seen between the lines for everyone else.

    you get far in your job by being right, if you are constantly wrong, you dont have a job anymore.

    big words... you are trying to get people to hire you, do you go to an interview and talk like you just got baked 15 minutes prior? dood, you know, nividia man, they know... things, and stuff... totally worth looking into because... they arent all pc and for the man, man. who in their right mind would hire someone like that. you have to at least sound professional and know what you are talking about, even know the proper way to use filler even when on the inside you are tearing your hair out screaming THEY TOLD ME NOTHING YOU MORON, I GOT MY FIST SO FAR UP MY (dont want sanction) THAT I FEAR I CANT PULL IT BACK OUT.

  • 0 Hide
    bustapr , December 10, 2012 6:52 PM
    reason why the analysts was just talking out his ass? Nvidia doesnt rely on windows market increase. if pc users were to switch over to mac then theyd more likely have nvidia cards in those than with stock oem windows pcs. nvidia mostly relies on gamers and developers. so in part, there would be a more obvious tendency to predict nvidias success based on pc games sales. also they would rely on games like crysis, metro, and battlefield where pcs need extra juice to run those games. pc games sales look like theyve increase vastly as the consoles got older.

    theres also reliability on amd doing well. the rivalry between amd and nvidia one of the most influential selling points of graphics cards today because of the excitement there is in seeing highly competitive cards battling it out in the price point war and getting better at a much faster rate than other tech.

    so basically what Im saying, nvidias pc siccess isnt based on windows share increase because "more windows users" =/= "more gamers and devs". there may be increase, but its barely noticable behind the already established pc gamers and aspiring gamers who already know not to look at mac for serious gaming. nvidia relies on gamers, devs, and competition.
  • 0 Hide
    Wisecracker , December 10, 2012 7:21 PM

    Whatever the platform, there is a big squeeze going on for nVidia. Hard to see where a big surge can be made by them at this point.

    But, that can change ...

  • 0 Hide
    somebodyspecial , December 10, 2012 8:59 PM
    What sqeeze wiscracker? AMD losing ground (lost market share to NV in gpu and cpu to intel), losing money and now selling everything they own to keep up. Intel isn't making gpu's for cards. So at worst NV will be alone in the next few years to charge us whatever they want for a gpu.

    They are the top super computer, even Intel lost. This is new ground they're moving into.

    They are moving into mobile. Tegra1 was just getting things going, 2 was getting in the door, and 3 is obviously selling. 4/5 will be in house designed (one of them, not sure which is fully in house) which should yield apple a6 like results. 3/4/5/6 were all being dev'd at the same time so says Jen ages ago in an conference call. Tegra4 comes March (announcement in CES jan I think). It will at least double the gpu and match everything out now and cpu currently does that in most things (since they went quad cpu first while everyone else double gpu first). TI just quit SOCS race moving to low end. Nobody is putting the squeeze on NV here either, rather, NV is attempting to squeeze into Samsung/Qcom/Apple's world.

    Denver and Boulder are entering Intel's space for real. CPU for desktops and cpu for servers. Instead of competing against a weak AMD, they're going to deal with a 3.5B cash company in Nvidia vs. Intel now. Much different. Not saying NV will win, but they should do much better than a broke AMD.

    Intel sold 352mil chips last year, and 348mil this year. The market is down a bit, but that's 1%. Gpu sales have not dropped significantly either. So it's basically the same market it's always been with a small hiccup due to economy fears which everyone is dealing with (hence the super small drop in intel's chips shipped). We have Wayne, Grey, Logan, Stark all left in the pipleline for SOCS, so I see the roadmap going pretty well at this point for a company who now basically is out of the "getting your feet wet" phase and moving into an excellent product market share on tablets and Tegra4 should get them into even more devices. Once kepler is fully in these things the war will really get interesting in SOCS.

    Intel owes NV again in Jan. That's going to make a nice quarter again too. They should have no trouble weathering this small pc storm (1%?, umm, wind gust not storm?) and are improving their marketshare everywhere. There is no data to support what you're saying
  • 0 Hide
    10tacle , December 11, 2012 12:15 AM
    bucknuttyBeing a financial analyst must be a fun job. You get to use big words over and over and spew complete BS as long as you mix in a tiny bit of common sense every one will listen and even publish what you say. You never need to be correct and you still get paid.


    And that differentiates them from politicians who make lot of money off the backs of the taxpayers how, exactly?
  • 1 Hide
    10tacle , December 11, 2012 12:39 AM
    I've been a PC builder and gamer for 20+ years, have had six different gaming consoles up to the current PS3 during the same time, and play games on my current Droid devices. However, I always still return to the PC because it offers the best graphics for those who can afford the hardware (and the ultra-high resolution monitors that show it off).

    Twelve years ago, a 19" 1600x1200 Sony Trinitron CRT monitor was the awesome display to own (and I still have mine collecting dust in an attic) when most still only had 640x480 CRT TVs to play consoles on. While the consoles of today have reduced that gap significantly as well as the 1080p HDTVs, it's still no contest when PC games allow graphics upticks of quality settings like AA that consoles don't allow. And then there are the 2560x1600 or x1440 ultra-high resolution monitors that really allow dedicated GPUs like what Nvidia and AMD offer to really shine.

    I sincerely hope that the move to tablets and consoles by the simpleton mass market consumers and gamers will not destroy the PC market along with dedicated GPUs long term (the next 20 years). That would truly be a sad day.
  • 0 Hide
    Wisecracker , December 11, 2012 12:05 PM
    Quote:
    What sqeeze wiscracker? AMD losing ground (lost market share to NV in gpu and cpu to intel), losing money and now selling everything they own to keep up. Intel isn't making gpu's for cards. So at worst NV will be alone in the next few years to charge us whatever they want for a gpu.

    They are the top super computer, even Intel lost. This is new ground they're moving into.

    They are moving into mobile. Tegra1 was just getting things going, 2 was getting in the door, and 3 is obviously selling. 4/5 will be in house designed (one of them, not sure which is fully in house) which should yield apple a6 like results. 3/4/5/6 were all being dev'd at the same time so says Jen ages ago in an conference call. Tegra4 comes March (announcement in CES jan I think). It will at least double the gpu and match everything out now and cpu currently does that in most things (since they went quad cpu first while everyone else double gpu first). TI just quit SOCS race moving to low end. Nobody is putting the squeeze on NV here either, rather, NV is attempting to squeeze into Samsung/Qcom/Apple's world.

    Denver and Boulder are entering Intel's space for real. CPU for desktops and cpu for servers. Instead of competing against a weak AMD, they're going to deal with a 3.5B cash company in Nvidia vs. Intel now. Much different. Not saying NV will win, but they should do much better than a broke AMD.

    Intel sold 352mil chips last year, and 348mil this year. The market is down a bit, but that's 1%. Gpu sales have not dropped significantly either. So it's basically the same market it's always been with a small hiccup due to economy fears which everyone is dealing with (hence the super small drop in intel's chips shipped). We have Wayne, Grey, Logan, Stark all left in the pipleline for SOCS, so I see the roadmap going pretty well at this point for a company who now basically is out of the "getting your feet wet" phase and moving into an excellent product market share on tablets and Tegra4 should get them into even more devices. Once kepler is fully in these things the war will really get interesting in SOCS.

    Intel owes NV again in Jan. That's going to make a nice quarter again too. They should have no trouble weathering this small pc storm (1%?, umm, wind gust not storm?) and are improving their marketshare everywhere. There is no data to support what you're saying


    Oh, really?

    Seen an nVidia chipset motherboard, lately? Their chipset business (formerly their fastest growing segment 4 years ago) is gone. That would be $225m -- a year ... and represents 10% of total revenues.

    Cash from operations? Yet to return to 2008 levels

    Tegra3 graphics? Out-performed by Mali400 from September ... of 2011.

    Any reasonable examination of discreet graphics price-points would reveal better performance by AMD products in each segment.

    In case you haven't noticed: Over the last 3 years of discreet new product release, nVidia is consistently 6 months behind the AMD graphics division.

    In case you haven't noticed, Part Deux: APU *SIMD Engine Arrays* on AMD CPUs out-perform nVidia discreet at $75 and below (or, roughly half of all video cards listed on the Egg) -- even before over-clocking the APU graphics engine.

    HPC?

    AMD FirePro S10000: 5.91 TFLOPS single-precision 1.48 TFLOPS double-precision floating-point calculations -- with 480 GB/sec memory bandwidth

    nVidia Tesla K20X: 3.95 TFLOPS single-precision and 1.31 TFLOPS double-precision floating-point calculations -- with ??? GB/sec memory bandwidth


    :lol:  at your alternate reality










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