MP3 Players and Phones
Both Sandisk and Samsung will be increasing the pressure on Apple dramatically with much richer lines and better integration with music and video systems. Even bigger will be a new generation of media rich phones. This topic will probably put the most pressure on CES, as Apple is expected to announce a "segment breaking" device to market. With Apple suddenly acting much closer to Microsoft than they have done historically, there is some speculation as to what the phone will actually be running as an operating system. All I know is that - whatever they are planning - the result is supposed to be "surprising".
Look for a variety of products with vastly better sound, better and faster displays, longer battery life, and aggressive industrial designs. Also look for accessories that better integrate these things with other parts of your digital life from connections so they can back up cameras to advanced wireless technology allowing them to function without ever needing to be connected to a TV. The iPod with the large display isn't expected until the second half of the year, but Apple likes upsets so the player may show up early.
PCs
CES is a big part of the Microsoft Windows Vista coming out party. Expect some laptops and desktops purposely designed for Vista. Some of these go well beyond what even Apple, Dell XPS, or Alienware have done and I really don't think folks are aware of how wild some of the OEMs are planning to become. You talk about lust boxes, I've seen some amazing prototypes and while the initial products will be relatively expensive, often showcasing technology that will take awhile to come down in price, the industrial designs are stunning and Apple will likely face design pressure they haven't seen before.
However, due largely to their new closeness with Intel, there is every indication they know what is coming and have put together their own stunning response. MacWorld is where we will see just how far Apple is willing to go to hold on to their design lead. Look for wider screens, vastly better graphics, and improvements in battery life. Also look for some interesting ways to customize laptop and desktop PCs and some incredibly wild new active cooling systems for the gamer set.
Speaking of gamers, look for Microsoft to start showcasing Vista's gaming capability along with the new integration into the Xbox live gaming framework so that folks on PCs and Xbox 360s can play against each other. The game developers have been looking forward to this and controllers that work with both the Xbox 360 and PCs will probably be in abundance. This is just the beginning and as we get closer to the show I'll try to provide updates in areas that I've either not covered or that have become more clear based on what I've actually been shown.
Until then, keep your eyes on us and your hand on your wallet, because next year is already looking much more expensive, in terms of technology products, than any previous year I can recall.
Rob Enderle is principal analyst for the Enderle Group. He can be reached at renderle@enderlegroup.com.
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