When you are done reading this article, you will agree that Intel is going to overtake Qualcomm in three years. We know that Intel's technology hasn't gone into any smartphones yet, while Qualcomm realized more than $4 billion of revenue in the last quarter.
So, to make our point, we have to perform a magic trick. All magic tricks have three acts. The first part is called "The Pledge." That's where we do something ordinary: talk about CPU architecture. Any editorial team can do that. The second act is called "The Turn." We take our ordinary article and make it do something extraordinary. This is where we get into the details of chip fabrication and the history of mobile GPUs, something only a few editorial teams can do.
Now you're looking for the punchline. You still don't believe Intel has what it takes. But you won't see the secret because you don't know where to look. You don't really want to know. You are waiting to be fooled, and you're not yet ready to clap because writing about CPU architecture, chip fabrication, and mobile graphics isn't enough. That's why every magic trick has a third act, the hardest part, the part we call "The Prestige."
Three years ago, Internet Explorer was the industry’s dominant Web browser. Today, Google Chrome is in the lead. Today, Qualcomm is the dominant player in the mobile system-on-a-chip (MSoC) industry. In less than three years, Intel will take that position away.
That’s a bold claim, sure. But our team has been following the tech industry for over 15 years, and we’d like to think that experience gives us a unique perspective. We’ve seen AMD and Intel duke it out, ARM overtake MIPS and Super-H, and PowerVR and BitBoys rise from the ashes.
MSoCs are going to be a hot topic for the next three years, so you’re going to see a lot of prognostication. You’ll have completely crazy predictions, such as Robert X. Cringley’s. He’s the former tech writer for PBS.org who was once caught faking a Ph.D. from Stanford University and recently predicted that Intel was going to buy Qualcomm.
In our analysis, Intel will actually prove itself the company to beat.

A Difference Of Opinion
White papers and architectural analysis are very different from actual implementation and real-world testing. When most tech writers discuss a company’s developments, they use the abstract. But companies don’t create technologies; individual people do.
Take sports teams as an example. The Lakers might be better some years than others, but players like Kobe Bryant and coaches like Phil Jackson make Los Angeles a championship team. Put simply, when a company gets bought, rarely does the buyer want the whole company. Rather, it’s paying a premium for access to certain patents and, more importantly, access to critical human talent within the company.
To that end, the future of MSoCs will depend on, first, SoC architecture, second, fabrication skill, and third, graphics technology.
FTC disclosure: We own no stock in any of the companies discussed today. We work with all of them, though, and we review hardware that includes technology from each of the involved organizations.
Really?
Putting this sentence aside, its an interesting article.
Finally, I would say I did not like these global claims that intel has never failed in fab as I think they have been delayed for a bit on their last process or always demonstrated great platforms (since the original atoms I would not consider great to use for running windows...). I like intel and own their stock so I hope they do well, but I think they face more of an uphill battle that you see. I don't think that people did not think they would come into the market at a somewhat competitive place in analysis, but I really feel they are a disconnected fit (and this could just be me...) to this market. I have read money market people say that they will have a harder time entering into the smartphone market with ARMS market share expanding greatly in the next 3 years. I like the idea of the pairing with motorola for their chips because I think that will a) tie them to android (as I think meego is dead...) b) may let them offer solution akin to what the Atrix ideal could have been. Overall, an interesting article about future challenges with FAB/Design
You look at just Intel and Qualcomm,ignoring players that are more than capable to compete.
You also assume that performance is the most important aspect when in the end the reality is that CPUs are getting cheaper,a lot cheaper and those cheap chips will keep gaining market share while Intel can't match those prices without getting crippled. Servers and a growing market will help Intel for a while but at some point the funds available for R&D and fabs will start to shrink.(BTW my post,unlike this article,is not sponsored by anyone.)
Also (and more importantly) will the software help Intel in the same way as during the Wintel dominance? Microsoft itself has planned Windows 8 for less resource requirements than Windows 7 has now. Will there any need be for "above the ARM level" of performance in the coming years?
Also (and even more importantly) how Intel will cope with the mounting pressure on its chip prices? If Intel will not be able to held those prices high enough it could fast loose the revenue it is getting now.
In other words: during those three years Intel's ware may become a commodity where only price or Price/performance what is counting. Even now, as noted in today's news by Digitimes:
"TSMC seeing 3G chip orders boom, sources say
...
Qualcomm, MediaTek and Broadcom have all introduced their more integrated single-chip solutions targeted at the market for low-priced 3G smartphones in China. Each of the new chips - manufactured using 40nm and below node technologies - accounts for less than US$10 of total component cost a model would carry, the sources pointed out."
How Intel will compete with that, not in 3 years, but in 2012? Than in 2013? And finally in 2014?
So, given all that above I could subscribe to your prophecy at all!
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5365/intels-medfield-atom-z2460-arrive-for-smartphones
though at the end of the article, christian bale didn't have a twin.
The most important piece of the Jigsaw is missing, power consumption. But you would expect thaf from somebody fixated on performance. Intel will struggle to make X86 work in anything other than tablets and High end handsets, it will have a tiny niche in three years, if it is lucky. And with MS opening up Windows they will lose share in thin clients and laptops.
LOL
no one got away with seeing the underside of the cards on the table
The problem of course is that because Intel can use a much more advanced node it can make the chips extremely cheaper than what ARM chips can be made. Medfield is somewhere around 65mm^2 while the Tegra 3 is somewhere in the neighborhood of 90mm^2. After Intel's SoC moves to a 22nm node the die size should shrink to around 45mm^2. Which means Intel will be able to push these things out for pocket change.
Great spin but waaaaaaaaaaay too much Intel bias in here to really be objective. Dont just assume Intel is the only one in the market that will advance in the future and everyone else will try to peddle by on what they already have.
I don't think Intel 2015 will beat Qualcomm 2015 *and* Qualcomm 2012 proportionally. Intel 2015 will beat Qualcomm 2015 also because NVIDIA 2015, TI 2015, Samsung 2015, Marvell 2015, and Apple 2015 will be eating away at Qualcomm.
intel has a lot more money and experience....it could happen...btw nice phone, where can i get one
I remember when the demo scene started and downloading them from local BBSs in South Florida.. The scene went from dedicated groups pushing the limits, to every pirating group releasing their own demos and including them in all of their releases along with ANSI graphics and/or ASCII file_id.diz's..
Anyway, back on topic.. As dragonsqrrl already mentioned, Intel already has Medfield and it seems to be very competitive already.. If Intel wants into this market, nothing can stop them.. They have the fabs, engineers, and more importantly the capital to invest to such a point that they could someday dominate this market as they do the desktop CPU market..
My bet is on Intel + MS, why? The x86 windows platform. If MS puts all the basic api's ect in the phone OS i look forward to be able to run the same software ect both on the phone and the computer. Windows is also the standard in desktop OS with a huge software library and they are trusted by most corps and that should give WP the push it needs. My guess of a possible future but new things surface the whole time so it could change tomorrow - I love progress!
Don't "Follow the money". Follow the People.