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The GPU Price Index: Still Waiting for the Crash

Our GPU pricing index shows a very strong correlation between eBay prices and potential Ethereum mining profits. The good news is that Ethereum's price has mostly settled down during the past month, after a massive jump in early May. Combined with increased mining difficulty, that means lower profits and less reason for miners to buy all the graphics cards. For the first time since we started tracking eBay prices back in February 2021, we're seeing a downward trend on nearly every GPU in our list. (The one exception: RX 6900 XT, which went up a small 1.3% since mid-May.)

It could be that the recent launch of the RTX 3080 Ti and RTX 3070 Ti are also partly to blame for the dropping prices. Those both have Nvidia's hashrate limiter, and the 3080 Ti in particular had a lot of units sold (on eBay at least) since its launch. We've added both cards to our list, but there's no "historical" data to compare them with just yet. Also: Both are incredibly overpriced, relative to the official MSRPs. Here's the data from early June.

Graphics CardAvg eBay PriceQTY SoldPrice Change
GeForce RTX 3090$3,002491-4.4%
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti$2,307621N/A
GeForce RTX 3080$1,9781114-11.5%
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti$1,40742N/A
GeForce RTX 3070$1,3001258-8.5%
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti$1,238264-12.6%
GeForce RTX 3060 12GB$874693-3.9%
Radeon RX 6900 XT$1,884931.3%
Radeon RX 6800 XT$1,487153-6.0%
Radeon RX 6800$1,260109-8.1%
Radeon RX 6700 XT$915303-5.6%

Hooray for lower prices! Boo for still-too-high prices!

The good news, as mentioned already, is that every GPU (other than the 6900 XT) has gone down in price on eBay since our previous update. Interestingly, the RTX 3060 Ti, RTX 3070, and RTX 3080 show the biggest dip, of nearly 10% on the 3070, and over 10% on the other two cards. All three of these GPUs are now shipping in LHR (Lite Hash rate) models, with the previous higher hashrate variants being 'retired.' Only the RTX 3090 remains untouched on hashrate, and it saw less of a drop.

Of course there's another element to the story. With the launch of the RTX 3080 Ti and RTX 3070 Ti, Nvidia has added two more cards that use the same GPUs as existing models. It claimed that these are in addition to cards already on the market, but compared to data from one month ago, the quantity of cards sold dropped for many of the GPUs — RTX 3090 units were down 35%, 3080 was down 5%, 3070 was down 25%, 3060 Ti went up 1%, and the RTX 3060 dropped by 19%. AMD's unit sales are also down in general, by 27% for the 6900 XT, 5% on the RX 6800, and 29% on the RX 6700 XT; only the RX 6800 XT showed an increase in units sold of 9%.

More critically, compared to the first two weeks of May (see the next page for details), the total number of GPUs sold on eBay was lower by 240 units for Nvidia and 154 units for AMD. That means Nvidia's introduction of two new GPUs didn't increase supply of GPUs on eBay at least.

Since we're looking only at sold listings on eBay, it's difficult to say how much the trends we see there correlate with the larger graphics card market. JPR estimated about 700,000 GPUs were sold to miners last quarter, which would also mean around 2.8 million discrete graphics cards total were sold. By our estimates, only 30,000 GPUs were sold (or resold) on eBay during that same time.

Overall, most of the graphics cards are still averaging prices of over 2x the official MSRPs, with the RTX 3080 Ti (1.9x), RX 6900 XT (1.9x), and RX 6700 XT (also 1.9x) being the exceptions. The worst 'deals' on eBay continue to be the RTX 3080 (2.8x) and RTX 3060 Ti (3.1x), with the RTX 3070 and RTX 3060 doing slightly better at only 2.6x MSRP. Along with the 3080 Ti, the RTX 3070 Ti also lands closer to its MSRP, at 'only' 2.3x the MSRP. And just to complete the list, the RX 6800 XT costs 2.3x its MSRP while the RX 6800 is 2.2x its MSRP.

Nvidia outsold AMD — on eBay — by a factor of 6.8 to 1, which is higher than previous updates. Nvidia also has substantially higher prices overall, so the total dollar value of GPUs purchased off eBay (Ampere vs. RDNA2) favored Nvidia by a 9.5 to 1 ratio. The RTX 3070 and RTX 3080 were the most popular cards overall for Nvidia, and AMD's RX 6700 XT continues to account for more sales than the other three RX 6000-series GPUs combined.

Weekly Summary: Heading Downhill?

Mountain biker heading downhill, hopefully an apt illustration of where mining profits are heading

(Image credit: Shutterstock)

One thing that's clear after tracking GPU prices and cryptocurrency profitability for the past several months is that nothing is clear. Cryptocurrencies can be so volatile that what looks like the start of a downward or upward trend can quickly reverse course. But! Right now, prices and profitability look like they're finally heading in the right direction.

We're still many months away from seeing 'normal' prices, even if the current downward trend continues. The impact of Covid and the increased demand for graphics cards hasn't fully let up either, so all miners could halt GPU purchases and we still wouldn't have enough graphics cards to go around. Maybe by fall, though, we could see prices only 25% above MSRP instead of 125% above MSRP. We hope.

On a related note, the profitability of Chia farming has also tanked during the past few weeks, with netspace ballooning and still no proper pooled farming support. Maybe interest in Chia temporarily reduced the interest in GPU mining, though neither seems likely to disappear just yet.

Flip to the next page for a look at historical charts and data.

Jarred Walton

Jarred Walton's (Senior Editor) love of computers dates back to the dark ages, when his dad brought home a DOS 2.3 PC and he left his C-64 behind. He eventually built his first custom PC in 1990 with a 286 12MHz, only to discover it was already woefully outdated when Wing Commander released a few months later. He holds a BS in Computer Science from Brigham Young University and has been working as a tech journalist since 2004, writing for AnandTech, Maximum PC, and PC Gamer. From the first S3 Virge '3D decelerators' to today's GPUs, Jarred keeps up with all the latest graphics trends and is the one to ask about game performance.

  • Kridian
    "The most desirable cards are now selling for close to triple their official launch prices."And THAT my friends, is why we don't buy sh*t on eBay (aka: Scalper's Haven).
    Reply
  • exploding_psu
    Me blindly buying a second-hand Vega 56 above MSRP years ago didn't look so bad now
    Reply
  • Sat32
    This scalping <Mod Edit> needs to end and Nvidia, ASUS, EVGA, MSI, Sony could stop this if they wanted to in a second.
    Years ago I ended up with a DVD exercise program P90 I think, since I didn't want it I listed it on ebay took about 15 minutes for the add to be pulled for copyright infringement.
    I wasn't a authorized dealers and P90 was there copyrighted trademark like Nvidia, ASUS, EVGA, MSI, Sony are all copyrighted trademarks so they do have the ability to stop this.
    People should be able to sell there stuff on ebay and make money but not in this way sucking everything up from every retailer amplifying the shortages for there own benefit.
    Nvidia could simply ask for every add that uses there copyrighted trademarks more then 10% above MSRP pulled down the scalping and bots would disappear overnight.
    Reply
  • ThisIsMe
    Only eBay can stop this in a heartbeat. All they have to do is ban people from selling new graphics cards or game consoles or whatever for 6 months. That’s it. People need to wise up and boycott eBay altogether until they wise up.
    Reply
  • excalibur1814
    You know what else needs to stop, on eBay? 0 feedback accounts.

    I've been watching Nikon Z6 auctions for over a month and EVERY single one is bid up to around £850. EVERY. Single.One. All tech item prices are seemingly being inflated and that benefits oems, eBay and share holders. It's annoying. It's obvious. It's so obvious, yet most threads are full of people shouting that it isn't an issue and that there's nothing going on.

    Yeah, okay.
    Reply
  • LolaGT
    It used to be really easy to track on auction sites with a little detective work.
    It has been many years now since ebay hid the bidding IDs so it was almost impossible to confirm it, and of course now that you can't see the obvious, it doesn't happen as far as ebay is concerned.


    Shill bidding in auctions is the deliberate placing bids on the seller's behalf to artificially drive up the price of his auctioned item. Shill bidding has been known to occur in auctions of high-value items like art and antiques where bidders' valuations differ and the seller's payoff from fraud is high.
    Reply
  • Clarence_Darrow
    ThisIsMe said:
    Only eBay can stop this in a heartbeat. All they have to do is ban people from selling new graphics cards or game consoles or whatever for 6 months. That’s it. People need to wise up and boycott eBay altogether until they wise up.

    Ebay makes far too much money to ever do this willingly.
    Reply
  • daworstplaya
    Clarence_Darrow said:
    Ebay makes far too much money to ever do this willingly.

    ^This!
    Honestly in this climate MS and Sony should just stop selling their consoles for a loss and sell the consoles for a higher price themselves and keep the profits vs allowing these low life scalpers (aka leeches) to make a quick buck.

    GPUs are a different story though, what needs to happen is for all the Cryptocurrency servers to be shut down in China and where ever else they are currently running. Kill Crypto and this whole thing goes away. There is absolutely no reason from Crypto currency ponzi scheme to exist.
    Reply
  • blacknemesist
    At least mining is getting diminished returns, hopefully it keeps dropping more and more and not only do they stop buying they will need to sell them to cut their losses.
    I would be happy if all gamers boycotted the 3xxx series just to let crypto crappers suffer all the losses but that isn't going to happen,
    Reply
  • Sat32
    Ebay is making money off the scalpers there is no reason for them to stop it. On the other hand Nvidia and it's vendors are dealing with pissed off customers and losing sales with tie in sales. I suggested a solution to this issue one call from one of Nvidia's lawyers letting ebay, stock-x, Facebook market place know if there products are sold on there sites all sellers will need to be authorized resellers. or they can expect legal action seeking damages for copyright infringment
    Reply