Intel says PC market is ‘a tale of two kingdoms’ with mainstream ‘taking a beating’ — VP suggests a split between mainstream and enthusiast sockets across the industry
“This is not just Intel,” Robert Hallock stressed.
Intel’s Robert Hallock, vice president and general manager of the enthusiast channel business, believes that the consumer market will see a split in sockets for mainstream and enthusiast platforms to address the rising costs of PCs for cash-strapped buyers. Tom’s Hardware Premium recently spoke with the technical marketing leader about the state of the PC market, which Hallock described as a “tale of two kingdoms.”
“I think the market's experiencing a tale of two kingdoms. For the folks who have a significant amount of discretionary budget, they can absorb the cost impacts of what's going on in the industry, and most other people cannot,” Hallock said. “And that's having a very different impact, as you can imagine, on different parts of the market. Low-end, mainstream is really taking a beating. Enthusiast and premium, not so bad. You could, depending on the device class, maybe even [say] growing positive. So it's a very starkly divided market at the moment.”
Hallock’s take on the market is interesting. The doom and gloom of the RAM and NAND shortages is omnipresent, but we’ve also seen very expensive launches despite that. Gigabyte launched the $5,300 RTX 5090 Infinity OC in June. Asus demoed its 20th anniversary ROG lineup at the same time, which includes a $3,300 motherboard and CPU cooler bundle, as well as a $6,000 RTX 5090. Saying the enthusiast market is growing given the current market conditions may be a stretch, but RAM prices haven’t killed it — an extra $300 or $400 in RAM in the context of a $5,000 PC doesn’t really move the needle.
That’s not the majority of the market, however, and presumably, those few high spenders aren’t enough to sustain a business at the scale of Intel. We’ve already seen concessions in hardware to reach buyers during the memory shortage, particularly in laptops, with the MacBook Neo, Intel’s own Wildcat Lake, and the newly-detailed Snapdragon C. On the desktop, we’ve seen AMD re-release the Ryzen 7 5800X3D and introduce the Ryzen 7 7700X3D. Intel has sold off its new Arrow Lake Refresh chips at much lower prices than expected, with the new Core Ultra 5 250K Plus recently dropping to just $155 in a limited-time sale.
On desktop, at least, these seem like short-term measures. Hallock suggests that, going forward, there will be a more clear divide between mainstream and enthusiast platforms, not just at Intel, but across the industry if prices don’t let up.
“I truly believe that what the market is going to see going forward, and this is just like an industry-level comment… and I want to stress this is not just Intel. You're probably going to see a split. You'll have a premium socket and a mainstream socket from everybody,” Hallock said. “If you’re playing in desktop space, that is probably what you'll do because the supply chain costs, the upstream costs, the same costs that are currently harming the entry-level and mainstream market, I don't see those abating anytime soon.”
AMD has stressed in its previous two earnings calls that gaming revenue, in particular, is declining due to higher component costs. In Intel’s most recent earnings, it reported revenue in its client business up 13% year-over-year, though clarified that was due to higher average selling price, not increased unit sales, because of “some inflation on our cost and [needing] to pass that on to the end customer,” said Intel’s chief financial officer David Zinsner during the earnings call at the time.
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Hallock buttoned up the point clearly: “You're going to have to make some concessions in your product stack, and that's purely to control costs and give people an option that they can actually afford. Otherwise, if you don't do it, the other alternative is it just disappears because it's unaffordable.”
It seems for Intel that the socket split looks like LGA 1700 for mainstream and LGA 1954 for enthusiasts, though Hallock didn’t say that explicitly. In June, Tom’s Hardware first reported on “Raptor Lake Next,” which is supposedly a third refresh to Intel’s Raptor Lake lineup set for early 2027. Hallock didn’t confirm the range to us, though he said that Raptor Lake remains a “core part of the portfolio” that he wants to offer “for years to come.”
LGA 1954 is the socket that Intel’s upcoming Nova Lake CPUs will use. There’s a lot of anticipation surrounding Nova Lake, not only due to the lackluster reception of Arrow Lake, but also the various rumors that have swirled around the range, including the introduction of bLCC as a 3D V-Cache competitor and a 52-core flagship, neither of which have been confirmed by Intel.
Although a lot is riding on Nova Lake, Hallock was clear that, given the current market, it won’t appeal to everyone. “A product like Nova Lake cannot address every single slice of the market. It just can't, given the current market that we're in,” Hallock said. “But I do hope and do believe that people will look back and go, ‘Damn, you know, that was pretty freaking good.’ That's what we’re hoping for.”
You can read the transcript of the full interview at our Tom's Hardware Premium site.
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Jake Roach is the Senior CPU Analyst at Tom’s Hardware, writing reviews, news, and features about the latest consumer and workstation processors.
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laxman10100 So TL;DR:Reply
PC component market has entry level and high-end/premium levels. But currently, both are unaffordable to a majority of the market. Intel claims that their upcoming Nova Lake CPUs are pretty darn good, but won't appeal to the whole market (as they're - the ones with the 3D VCache - presumably going to have the current premium pricing, eg $700+ per CPU). -
usertests Reply
There are supposed to be some budget configs with Nova Lake, like a 4P + 0E + 4LPE, so we'll see about that.laxman10100 said:So TL;DR:
PC component market has entry level and high-end/premium levels. But currently, both are unaffordable to a majority of the market. Intel claims that their upcoming Nova Lake CPUs are pretty darn good, but won't appeal to the whole market (as they're - the ones with the 3D VCache - presumably going to have the current premium pricing, eg $700+ per CPU).
If the idea is to launch a smaller socket simultaneously with a larger premium socket, that sounds dumb and anti-consumer.
If they want to keep an older socket alive longer like AM4 and AM5, that's fine. And a big part of that is they get to support two memory standards at once.
I also think many people would be fine with BGA mobile chips soldered to boards, like the cheap 16-cores Minisforum puts out. Even Wildcat Lake soldered to Mini-ITX might meet someone's requirements, although the PCIe lanes are obviously lackluster. -
TerryLaze Reply
Yeah but when you can justify only making the big models because "market conditions" then there is very little chance that they will make the small models in big numbers.usertests said:There are supposed to be some budget configs with Nova Lake, like a 4P + 0E + 4LPE, so we'll see about that.
I mean they have to make money as long as there is any money to be made, if the (A.I. ) market crashes there's going to be a long stretch of not making much money at all because the whole economy will be kaput. -
Jabberwocky79 Same thing has been happening in the auto industry for years - Manufacturers are either building ultra-cheap vehicles, or uber-expensive ones, and nothing in-between. Nearly every automaker is building a million-dollar-plus halo car with limited runs, and they sell out before they're ever made. The world is becoming more and more divided between the haves and the have-notsReply -
PEnns Two kingdoms?Reply
I was expecting something along the lines of: After centuries of ruthless battles, the Lannisters have won the Warhorse Socket Wars, aka AM4 and AM5 and also the RAM wars that can work with them. Those war horses last a really long time!! The people were happy not having to buy a new horse, aka socket, every 2 years or so. They even have a new very powerful and fast horse they named X3D.
The Hightowers on the other hand, despite intrigue and having to bribe everyone, from vendors to techie websites, are still stuck with their lonely, old horse who people must replace with a newer, expensive one every 1-2 years.
Now there is talk the Hightowers are resurrecting an old and long buried war horse for their next attempt in this lopsided war. Their people see a ray of hope over Westeros (or is it Easteros?), but they're not sure yet if it's a ray of hope or a dragon vomiting napalm flying in their direction.
More to follow in the new season. -
hotaru251 Reply“some inflation on our cost and needing] to pass that on to the end customer,”
not needing.
Choosing.
Any company in the Fortune 100 100% COULD absorb the cost somewhat but they CHOOSE to not do so. -
TerryLaze Reply
The only flaw in you story is that people that buy a system that is not easy to upgrade keep it for 5-6years and "lately" ,because of how powerful system have become, more like 10 years unless it breaks down before that...PEnns said:Two kingdoms?
I was expecting something along the lines of: After centuries of ruthless battles, the Lannisters have won the Warhorse Socket Wars, aka AM4 and AM5 and also the RAM wars that can work with them. Those war horses last a really long time!! The people were happy not having to buy a new horse, aka socket, every 2 years or so. They even have a new very powerful and fast horse they named X3D.
The Hightowers on the other hand, despite intrigue and having to bribe everyone, from vendors to techie websites, are still stuck with their lonely, old horse who people must replace with a newer, expensive one every 1-2 years.
Now there is talk the Hightowers are resurrecting an old and long buried war horse for their next attempt in this lopsided war. Their people see a ray of hope over Westeros (or is it Easteros?), but they're not sure yet if it's a ray of hope or a dragon vomiting napalm flying in their direction.
More to follow in the new season.
The only scenario a long living socket makes sense is if you want, or need, to upgrade the cpu every 1-2-3years. -
Thunder64 ReplyTerryLaze said:The only flaw in you story is that people that buy a system that is not easy to upgrade keep it for 5-6years and "lately" ,because of how powerful system have become, more like 10 years unless it breaks down before that...
The only scenario a long living socket makes sense is if you want, or need, to upgrade the cpu every 1-2-3years.
So Intel is seemingly going towards long end sockets with 1700/1954 because...? -
timsSOFTWARE Bubbles don't last forever. I remember the point in time just a few years ago now when my car was worth more on the used market than it was new, and there were billboards on the freeway advertising employment at the local grocery store. Of course everything changed in the past 5 years.Reply
This too will pass - not because AI is likely to ever go away, but because a combination of increased hardware production capacity coming online, and investors eventually realizing dumping limitless sums into rapidly depreciating hardware today is not going to lead them to some kind of infinite money glitch.
The thesis behind this spending was mostly based on the idea that we were going to reach the "singularity" in 18 months and there wouldn't be a point to anything humans do past that point. Even the possibility of it was enough to drive capital allocation. But it seems pretty clear now that won't be the case. So at some point the market will catch up to reality. There will most likely be a market sector crash, some companies will go under; others will survive, using ML/training models to solve otherwise intractable problems will become a standard part of CS, life goes on, and hardware pricing basically returns to normal. -
usertests Reply
There's this vague warning from Hallock, but we'll see what actually happens. Intel could be making at least low-end Nova Lake CCDs on 18A, eating its own dog food, a node which won't be sold in appreciable numbers to external customers (14A is the new hope).TerryLaze said:Yeah but when you can justify only making the big models because "market conditions" then there is very little chance that they will make the small models in big numbers.
I mean they have to make money as long as there is any money to be made, if the (A.I. ) market crashes there's going to be a long stretch of not making much money at all because the whole economy will be kaput.
Intel will continue to sell tens of millions of chips for office PCs. They will make "low-end" on the socket if those customers buy it.
See preliminary SKU list at the bottom: https://videocardz.com/newz/intel-nova-lake-s-reportedly-gets-two-18-core-core-ultra-400-cpus-with-bllc
Everything is supposed to be made from a combo of these CCDs:
4P + 0E
4P + 8E
8P + 16E
8P + 16E + bLLC
Everything gets 4 LPE cores which are located on a different chiplet. The 8P + 16E can be used twice for up to 52 cores (16P + 32E + 4LPE) and optionally up to 288 MiB bLLC.
Does it make sense for Intel to make 4P + 0E + 4LPE disabled to as low as 2P + 0E + 4LPE? Well, it's still technically triple/quadruple the cores of those dual-core Alder Lake-S chips Intel made (from a 6P + 0E die).
There's no guarantee that those 6-cores or 8-cores would come out at prices DIY are willing to pay. Core Ultra 3 205 is OEM-only in the US. Core Ultra 5 225 is not attractive at around $180.
Is the economy and pricing going to be so screwed up that businesses will not be able to buy 6/8-core Nova Lake with 8 GB DDR5 and 256 GB SSD? We will see.