SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung says that 2027 will be the "worst year" for the ongoing memory shortage in comments shared with Reuters. The remark comes on the heels of SK Hynix successfully marking the largest-ever IPO for a foreign company on the U.S. stock market, raising $26.5 billion. Although Kwak points to next year being the worst for RAM shortages, the executive expects the memory crunch to last until 2030.
"We forecast that next year will be the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective," Kwan told Reuters. "We still forecast that customer demand will remain higher than our supply capacity even beyond 2030. But we are doing our best to solve the problem."
In March, SK Group chairman Chey Tae-won also suggested shortages would last until 2030, and the company has previously pointed to 2027 as a key shortage point, alongside Samsung. DRAM demand is largely driven by the HBM used in AI accelerators, which require far more sophisticated manufacturing and packaging processes compared to consumer DDR5. On top of advanced manufacturing, HBM also consumes more wafer capacity than DDR5, forcing major memory brands to reallocate supply and double down on an already sticky supply situation.
Forecasts like this are tricky. It's in SK Hynix's financial interest for memory shortages to continue, even well beyond 2030. SK Hynix has set a record for quarter-over-quarter revenue, and rival Micron has seen its stock value increase 213% this year, pushing its share price to around $990.
However, Kwan's remarks aren't just a bid to rally behind SK Hynix stock. Over the past few months, we've seen Micron and SK Hynix ink long-term supply agreements (LTAs). These agreements commit supply over multiple years to particular companies and define a price floor and ceiling during the agreement term. Although LTAs don't directly influence market prices, they secure demand, and we've seen a lot of LTAs over the past several months to bind DRAM supply.
Although memory (and NAND) prices will remain elevated for at least the next several months, we've seen some signs of the market cooling. Earlier this month, a TrendForce report showed DRAM contract prices up 15% to 18% quarter over quarter for Q3 2026. That's a large increase, but far lower than the QoQ increases we've seen previously.
We're nearing some semblance of stability in the memory market, just stability at vastly elevated prices. How long that lasts is anyone's guess. Although memory brands like SK Hynix have visibility into market trends, those can rapidly change. Just this year, we've seen a massive pivot toward AI spending going toward CPUs, pushing Intel's stock to record highs while shedding around $1 trillion in Nvidia's market cap; a year ago, that would've been almost impossible to predict.
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