Memory prices will keep climbing through the third quarter of 2026, but the blistering increases of the past few quarters are set to cool as consumer buyers reach the ceiling of what they can afford, according to a detailed TrendForce report. The research firm's latest memory pricing survey projects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 13% to 18% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 2026, with NAND Flash contract prices increasing 10% to 15%; substantial gains, but a marked slowdown from the roughly 60% jumps recorded in the second quarter.
According to the report, the cooldown is driven by consumer electronics manufacturers' unwillingness and inability to absorb higher memory costs after months of relentless price increases, rather than by improved supply. In other words, memory remains in short supply, but consumers are no longer willing to keep paying ever-higher prices.
AI continues to be the market's driving force. Demand for AI inference systems and hyperscale data centers remains strong enough to keep both DRAM and NAND supply constrained, while memory manufacturers continue shifting production capacity toward higher-margin server products. This leaves less capacity available for consumer memory, preventing prices from falling even as demand from PCs and smartphones weakens.
As a result, the memory market is increasingly split between enterprise and consumer customers. On the server side, TrendForce expects demand to remain healthy through 2027 as improving CPU availability supports continued deployments of AI servers built around x86 processors and registered DIMMs (RDIMMs). Although server DRAM is expected to remain undersupplied during the third quarter, price increases should moderate because a portion of purchases is covered by long-term supply agreements.
Consumer markets appear to paint a very different picture. Notebook manufacturers are expected to keep replenishing inventories, but higher memory costs are gradually feeding through into retail pricing, a trend TrendForce believes could weigh on PC shipments for the rest of the year. Smartphone vendors face similar pressure, with many expected to raise handset prices to offset persistently high LPDRAM (low-power DRAM) costs while simultaneously becoming more cautious with production plans as consumer demand softens.
The same pattern is beginning to emerge across storage products. PC manufacturers accumulated substantial client SSD inventories during the first half of 2026, reducing their willingness to accept another round of price increases. Suppliers have responded by taking a more flexible approach during contract negotiations, helping to moderate SSD pricing even as enterprise storage continues to benefit from AI infrastructure spending.
Not every segment is seeing the same level of demand. TrendForce notes that NVIDIA's RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell has yet to generate the expected wave of GDDR7 demand, while weaker notebook shipments have also softened demand for graphics memory. At the opposite end of the market, retail products such as USB flash drives and memory cards remain sluggish as higher upstream costs become increasingly difficult to pass on to consumers.
For PC builders, the report suggests that meaningful price relief is still some way off. Memory prices are continuing to rise because AI infrastructure remains the industry's top priority. However, the pace of those increases is slowing as consumer demand reaches its breaking point.
Follow Tom's Hardware on Google News, or add us as a preferred source, to get our latest news, analysis, & reviews in your feeds.
