China drafts $295 billion plan to build national AI data center grid running on 80% homemade silicon — projected 2028 timeline could run into limits of local chip production
Beijing's spending ambitions run into the reality of limited chip output.
China is drafting a plan to spend roughly 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over five years on a nationwide web of AI data centers. The goal is for at least 80% of the underlying technology, AI chips included, to be sourced from domestic suppliers such as Huawei, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the discussions.
The National Development and Reform Commission is responsible for the blueprint of this network, while state carriers China Mobile and China Telecom will operate most of the facilities and link them up to a single computing grid by 2028. The build-out of this grid leans heavily on sovereign debt and ultra-long special government bonds. Folding in power grid upgrades could push the total capital requirement beyond 5 trillion yuan, those sources told Bloomberg.
Funding the build-out is easy, though; filling them with domestic accelerators is a different story. The 80% domestic sourcing requirement effectively locks out Nvidia and AMD accelerators, so China will be capped by whatever amount of chips SMIC can physically produce. The foundry’s most advanced stable node remains its N+2 process, which is roughly equivalent to 7nm and is currently running above 93% utilization, leaving little headroom as every government-certified Chinese chipmaker competes for the same wafer slots.
Another major chokepoint is high-bandwidth memory. Highly limited domestic HBM supply constrains how many Ascend-class accelerators Huawei can assemble. Huawei alone shipped around 812,000 chips last year and projects some $12 billion in processor revenue for 2026, a pace that its own supply chain has struggled to sustain. It’s estimated that China’s domestic suppliers will cover only around 76% of all Chinese AI chip demand by 2030, even as that market grows toward $67 billion.
Beijing has massively tightened its restrictions on foreign silicon in a series of new controls. Last August, Beijing introduced a requirement that data centers source at least 50% of chips locally, and by November, state-funded projects were barred from foreign accelerators entirely, with builds less than 30% complete reportedly told to strip out Nvidia, AMD, and Intel parts.
China's own industry has questioned whether domestic hardware can keep pace. SMIC co-CEO Zhao Haijun has cautioned that the rush to add capacity risks leaving data centers idle, comparing it to building highways ahead of the traffic. Chinese chip executives have separately conceded the country trails the leading edge in AI data center silicon by five to 10 years. When DeepSeek was steered toward Huawei hardware for model training, it eventually reverted to Nvidia hardware, lending credence to the idea that domestic parts still struggle with the heaviest training workloads, even where they suffice for inference.
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Luke James is a freelance writer and journalist. Although his background is in legal, he has a personal interest in all things tech, especially hardware and microelectronics, and anything regulatory.
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TCA_ChinChin Reply
You say that kinda sarcastically, but its probably going to be reality for at least a couple more years. I can see better compute parity in like 10 years, but if they follow through with the 2028 deadline, I think you'd be more right than wrong.ThisIsMe said:The remaining 20% will likely provide 80% of the total compute capacity.
jk …maybe -
Geef Maybe the 80% silicon will be the 'made in China' motherboards they put the 'made in Taiwan' 20% CPUs on? 🤔Reply
OR?
The server farm is sitting on the beach and they count the sand as the 80%? :D🩴 -
JarredWaltonGPU Reply
Or it could be 80% Chinese silicon by weight! And some of those might just be defective silicon ingots.... I mean, I know what China's gov't is saying, but how that ultimately ends up being interpreted and enforced is a completely different story. Big Brother only needs enough token support to tell the world how superior its AI solutions are.ThisIsMe said:The remaining 20% will likely provide 80% of the total compute capacity.
jk …maybe -
Zaranthos For fun I ran some rough numbers to see what just one USA based AI company was spending on AI for a relatively similar time period. xAI was pretty easy because it's relatively new compared to many other AI companies. xAI alone is likely to spent over 220 billion on combined projects to drive their domestic and orbital AI plans.Reply
Google, Meta, and Anthropic will likely have all spent much more than that by 2028 as well. xAI is likely to spend more in less time, though some of that spending is for more than just AI since I lumped terafab into the mix since that is a virtual necessity to reach the compute goals planned.
Never in my lifetime have I seen a global tech race anything like this. I don't think in the history of mankind, even adjusted for inflation, there has ever been a tech race that comes close to the AI race going on right now. It's fueling growth in all kinds of other tech as well along with renewed production of tech adjacent manufacturing needed to shore up supply chains. China is just another little fish in the sea here, and some of the other fish are a lot bigger. As long as we don't destroy ourselves in the process it is an exiting time to be alive. -
derekullo Reply
I'm glad i exited leveraged tech funds before the latest crash ... TECL !!!Zaranthos said:For fun I ran some rough numbers to see what just one USA based AI company was spending on AI for a relatively similar time period. xAI was pretty easy because it's relatively new compared to many other AI companies. xAI alone is likely to spent over 220 billion on combined projects to drive their domestic and orbital AI plans.
Google, Meta, and Anthropic will likely have all spent much more than that by 2028 as well. xAI is likely to spend more in less time, though some of that spending is for more than just AI since I lumped terafab into the mix since that is a virtual necessity to reach the compute goals planned.
Never in my lifetime have I seen a global tech race anything like this. I don't think in the history of mankind, even adjusted for inflation, there has ever been a tech race that comes close to the AI race going on right now. It's fueling growth in all kinds of other tech as well along with renewed production of tech adjacent manufacturing needed to shore up supply chains. China is just another little fish in the sea here, and some of the other fish are a lot bigger. As long as we don't destroy ourselves in the process it is an exiting time to be alive.
$240 a share was indeed exiting time lol -
Greywulffcvg Reply
I think you probably meant "exciting," but exiting might be appropriate.Zaranthos said:it is an exiting time to be alive. -
Alastor01 Reply
Is it really that exciting tho?Zaranthos said:For fun I ran some rough numbers to see what just one USA based AI company was spending on AI for a relatively similar time period. xAI was pretty easy because it's relatively new compared to many other AI companies. xAI alone is likely to spent over 220 billion on combined projects to drive their domestic and orbital AI plans.
Google, Meta, and Anthropic will likely have all spent much more than that by 2028 as well. xAI is likely to spend more in less time, though some of that spending is for more than just AI since I lumped terafab into the mix since that is a virtual necessity to reach the compute goals planned.
Never in my lifetime have I seen a global tech race anything like this. I don't think in the history of mankind, even adjusted for inflation, there has ever been a tech race that comes close to the AI race going on right now. It's fueling growth in all kinds of other tech as well along with renewed production of tech adjacent manufacturing needed to shore up supply chains. China is just another little fish in the sea here, and some of the other fish are a lot bigger. As long as we don't destroy ourselves in the process it is an exiting time to be alive.
Astronomical price increases for memory / storage, shortage of same, fake frames, dropping quality of anything digital, massively generated Internet rubbish, etc?
I mean sure, there are some good things, but bad things far outweigh them. -
Zaranthos Reply
Haha, indeed.Greywulffcvg said:I think you probably meant "exciting," but exiting might be appropriate. -
Zaranthos ReplyAlastor01 said:Is it really that exciting tho?
Astronomical price increases for memory / storage, shortage of same, fake frames, dropping quality of anything digital, massively generated Internet rubbish, etc?
I mean sure, there are some good things, but bad things far outweigh them.
Internet rubbish has been a thing since the internet existed. I'm still scarred from MySpace links I clicked decades ago. ;)
Most of the price increases will pass and in many cases may even result in cheaper prices overall in the long run. But there is no denying that the cost of a computer is going to suck for quite some time yet. Myself, I could easily just buy some cheap Steam game sales on old remastered games and run the same computer for many years and not really care about new expensive hardware. That and the insane demand for more and more powerful AI computers will probably mean pretty powerful local AI computers will end up on the used and refurb markets as people race to replace them with faster hardware.