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Nvidia's Kepler to Arrive in 2012

Ken Brown, a spokesman for Nvidia, told X-bit Labs that Kepler silicon will be available this year, but now it seems production of graphic cards will not happen until 2012. So far, we have been under the impression that Kepler cards could be arriving just in time for Christmas, even if Nvidia already had said at the International Supercomputing Conference in June that the new cards may be delayed by a month or two.

Kepler will be succeeding the Fermi architecture and use a 28 nm production process. There have been rumors that Nvidia is struggling with the 28 nm production and that manufacturing is causing the delay. Of course, Nvidia isn't commenting on the delay and no chip manufacturer would ever give a statement on yield issues anyway. However, Nvidia is under pressure of getting Kepler out on time and especially get to Kepler right. (The current Fermi architecture was delayed several times and had a less than perfect launch.)

According to information released by Nvidia so far, Kepler cards will triple the dual-precision floating point performance of Fermi and hit up to 6 dp GFlops, while its successor Maxwell (scheduled for a 2013 release) is expected to with almost 16 dp GFlops. These are big promises and Nvidia wouldn't want to miss them.

  • At least that means my current one will live longer...
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  • Moore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.
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  • verbalizer
    good-luck, I'm waiting for you and you better come correct.
    I'm hating all these AMD/Radeon fanbois talking all this nonsense about the HD 7xxx series.
    (nVidia: the way it's meant to be played...)
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  • dragonsqrrl
    "According to information released by Nvidia so far, Kepler cards will triple the dual-precision floating point performance of Fermi and hit up to 6 dp GFlops, while its successor Maxwell (scheduled for a 2013 release) is expected to with almost 16 dp GFlops. These are big promises and Nvidia wouldn't want to miss them."

    ...sigh,

    You left out a small yet crucial piece of information that completely changes the meaning of this last paragraph. Per W. Nvidia says Kepler will triple the double precision performance per Watt over Fermi, they've never said anything about a flat out tripling in dp performance.
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  • Grebuloner
    How about some proofreading and checking your facts...6 (or even 16) dp gflops is way below most GPUs and many CPUs. Do you mean GFLOPs/watt as the chart that's made the rounds says? That's a little more impressive.

    /Thinking ahead to Maxwell or post-SI as next upgrade cycle.
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  • 4745454b
    This wasn't up when I made a post about this subject this morning. I'll copy what I wrote in this thread. Props to dragonsqrrl who caught what I did and Charlie missed.

    http://semiaccurate.com/2011/07/05/nvidias-kepler-comes-in-to-focus/

    I know you guys hate him, but he was correct with Fermi. Anand is also running an article saying the same.

    http://www.anandtech.com/show/4572/kepler-gpus-shipping-this-year-nvidia-says-yes

    Back to the article on Fudzilla, the second paragraph contains three bullet points, that the chip has taped out, there is a lot of leakage yet to be dealt with, and the 40nm to 28nm transition is tough.

    Remember that for each respin of silicon, you'll need to tack on another 6 weeks or so. If tape out happened in June, the first respin won't be done until mid July at the earliest, probably more like August sometime. IF that one is the one they want to run with, production is 3mo, so they could have something ready by Nov. Nvidia has already said it's not happening, so the leakage much be bad.

    I'd like to point out there seems to be an issue with the S/A article. He keeps going on about 2.5x the number of transistors, but I think he missed something. S/A quote.

    First is that Kepler has about 2.5x the DP floating point performance of Fermi, at least according to Nvidia projections.

    That doesn't quite match what Anand reported.

    For Kepler NVIDIA is expecting "about 3x improvement in performance per watt"

    I added the bold part as I think this is what Nvidia meant. I think Charlie missed that. Other then that error, I don't think you'll be seeing Kepler for sale until H1 2012. Right now it depends on how many respins they need to fix their leakage problem.
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  • hotchrisbfries
    ch1pluvrMoore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.
    Law of Diminishing Returns

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns
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  • jeremy1183
    figures
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  • ojas
    Finally!
    i hope the cards are good, might upgrade my aging 9600GT finally...i just hope a smaller architecture means less heat, and consume less power...

    Hope they're cheaper than fermi at launch ;)
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  • legacy7955
    I for one am happy to see that a hardware company is actually SLOWING down the release of a product, because so many times in recent history product gets rushed out the door and is not completely tested and or checked as thoroughly as it should have been.

    I'd rather wait a bit longer and get good durability, usability, and reliability than get a product that was rushed to market plagued with problems.
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