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Your Odds of Winning Newegg Shuffle Are Just 0.001%

Newegg logo
(Image credit: Newegg)

It's no secret that buying components is basically a bloodsport at this point. In an attempt to let real people, rather than bots and scalpers, buy components, retailer Newegg instituted the Newegg Shuffle to create a lottery for a chance to buy parts.

What are your chances, though? Newegg told PCMag that 100,000 people tend to enter the raffle, setting your chances at 0.01% to win any individual Shuffle. That number, of course, disregards that many people get a chance each Shuffle, as multiple GPUs, motherboards and other components are available each time. And when there are multiple items or bundles, you could submit multiple 'entries' each day.

Newegg may have dozens of each potential combo as well, so perhaps your actual odds — if you try for every single combo on a given day — are much higher. That's 100,000 people entering almost daily for the chance to buy expensive and overpriced PC parts. Prices on Newegg, however, are often better than what scalpers are putting up on eBay.

Still, that number could be worse. For instance, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, your chance of getting struck by lightning is roughly one in 500,000, so you're more likely to win the Newegg Shuffle rather than have electric current blast down from the sky and run through your body.

Another lottery, Mega Millions, places its odds at winning the jackpot at one in 302,575,350, while the chance to win a million bucks is one in 12,607,306. That's far less likely than winning Newegg's drawing. Even if you have to enter the Newegg Shuffle multiple times to win, at least you don't have to pay for a ticket each time.

It's not impossible, however. One of our editors recently won a chance at winning a GPU (though ultimately passed on it), while PCMag reporter Michael Kan needed 13 attempts for the chance to buy an RTX 3070. Still, many on Twitter and other social networks have tried far more and claim to not have won just yet. 



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Some have criticized Newegg's practice of putting bundles in the Shuffle, which forces winners to purchase other items, like motherboards or monitors, when they finally get the chance to buy one of the best graphics cards or best CPUs.

But for many, this is their best shot, other than constantly monitoring sites or checking in daily with local big box stores. But on the internet, that line is 100,000 people long.

Andrew E. Freedman

Andrew E. Freedman is a senior editor at Tom's Hardware focusing on laptops, desktops and gaming. He also keeps up with the latest news. A lover of all things gaming and tech, his previous work has shown up in Tom's Guide, Laptop Mag, Kotaku, PCMag and Complex. among others. Follow him on Twitter: @FreedmanAE

  • gravagehulk
    Well, I’m done with them. The shady bundles and the way they’ve been handling this “lottery” ensured that they’ll never get my business again.
    Reply
  • Hrunga Zmuda
    They also don't do much for truly fraudulent Chinese sellers who have a record of not sending the item, faking deliveries, and then making it very difficult to get our money back unless we are ridiculously persistent.

    I would never buy from any company other than Newegg from their website. And I'm mostly not going to do that either.
    Reply
  • montyw47
    Has ANYONE come forward and say they actually WON from NewEgg.com??? These things are close holding out that chance of winning when the odds are so high against anyone. Has any NewEgg.com employee or in someway connected to them . Did corporate buyers have winner(s)? This whole ginning thing looks and acts like a sham.
    Reply
  • dennphill
    Tried to be persistent (and continually checked-in) keeping alive bookmarked pages for products I wanted (3060 and 3060Ti and 3070, as well as RX 6700 XT on NewEgg, B&H, Best Buy and AMD USA Store. (Ans Zotac.) Always Out of Stock or maybe Coming Soon, but never any product. (So WHERE does "24/7 Live Stock Alert for (yadda, yadda...)" on YouTube get away with saying there are 'product drops' and daily sales from the above sites? I NEVER see any! And, yes, the NewEgg Shuffle is a bunch of trash...seldom anything except very high priced NVidias...and usually combined in combos with motherboard I do not want or memory (only 2X8GBs!) that I do not need. New Egg is out of my shopping lane now and for the future. I turned off their stupid deal notices and "Shell Shockers" - as if ten bucks off is a great deal! Amazon usually beats their prices by this amount. Anyway, very poor options on their Shuffle...maybe I should just go out and buy a Megamillions quickpick...probably have a better chance of winning there.
    Reply
  • dennphill
    Oh, and BTW, if you look at NewEgg's today's Shell Shockers, you will see (as you may have seen several times in the past week or so) a MSI GeForce GTX 1660 SUPER Video Card GTX 1660 SUPER VENTUS XS OC GPU that is now (and has been whenever I've seen it on New Egg!) as being out of stock!!! ("Sold Out at $489.99," though there at least three vendors currently selling the card on New Egg for around $875+/-! Oh, and BTW, this is nearly the current card I have in my current PC build that I am trying to upgrade. This old MSI GeForce 1660 Ventus XS 5G OC that I have is just not the Super version, and it only cost me $199.99 from New Egg on May 7, 2019.
    Reply
  • AtrociKitty
    montyw47 said:
    Has ANYONE come forward and say they actually WON from NewEgg.com??? These things are close holding out that chance of winning when the odds are so high against anyone. Has any NewEgg.com employee or in someway connected to them . Did corporate buyers have winner(s)? This whole ginning thing looks and acts like a sham.
    I started entering shuffles on April 14th and was selected on the 26th.

    I suspect the odds are actually very different between each option, and I never enter all of them all myself. I'm sure the bare graphics cards and cheaper bundles have the most competition. In my case, I won an RTX 3060 and monitor bundle. I didn't quite need the monitor, but the bundle was still several hundred dollars cheaper than just the RTX 3060 from eBay, so I'd say it was a good deal. I understand the criticisim of the bundles, but if it's still significantly less than market value for a card, is it really a bad deal?
    Reply
  • spongiemaster
    AtrociKitty said:
    I understand the criticisim of the bundles, but if it's still significantly less than market value for a card, is it really a bad deal?
    Agreed. And 1 out of 100,000 is still way better odds than no shuffles, and you coincidently being on Newegg's site when new stock is made available on a few models out of dozens listed and then you being able to beat the bots through the check out process.
    Reply
  • evilhomer99
    montyw47 said:
    Has ANYONE come forward and say they actually WON from NewEgg.com??? These things are close holding out that chance of winning when the odds are so high against anyone. Has any NewEgg.com employee or in someway connected to them . Did corporate buyers have winner(s)? This whole ginning thing looks and acts like a sham.

    I'm curious what the sham would be? They advertise parts, then not sell them? I have won shuffle 4 times. Odds are low, my results not typical. But the prices are clearly marked, as is the return policy. I'm curious what you think the "sham" is on entering a lottery for free and you don't have to buy anything.
    Reply
  • LolaGT
    The shuffle winners aren't winners. There is nothing winning about being selected to pay what I still consider a scalper price for a video card.
    Reply
  • Heat_Fan89
    AtrociKitty said:
    I started entering shuffles on April 14th and was selected on the 26th.

    I suspect the odds are actually very different between each option, and I never enter all of them all myself. I'm sure the bare graphics cards and cheaper bundles have the most competition. In my case, I won an RTX 3060 and monitor bundle. I didn't quite need the monitor, but the bundle was still several hundred dollars cheaper than just the RTX 3060 from eBay, so I'd say it was a good deal. I understand the criticisim of the bundles, but if it's still significantly less than market value for a card, is it really a bad deal?
    I define market value as MSRP. If I can’t get the item for it’s list price, I wait. So to me it’s a bad deal if I have to pay more than $649 for an RX 6800xt. The same goes for a Playstation 5 or an RTX 3080. I’m all about fair play.
    Reply