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Coronavirus Will Hurt PC Sales in H1 2020, IDC Predicts

(Image credit: Shutterstock)

COVID-19 is reportedly wreaking havoc on the technology industry. IDC's latest predictions shared Thursday put some numbers on how the coronavirus outbreak may hurt the PC market this year with its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, which covers desktops, laptops, workstations and tablets.

"We have already forgone nearly a month of production given the two-week extension to the Lunar New Year break, and we expect the road to recovery for China's supply chain to be long with a slow trickle of labor back to factories in impacted provinces until May when the weather improves," Linn Huang, research VP, Devices & Displays, IDC, said in a statement. "Many critical components, such as panels, touch sensors and printed circuit boards, come out of these impacted regions, which will cause a supply crunch heading into Q2."

(Image credit: IDC)

IDC's figures detail forecasts that were made before the coronavirus hit, as well as after, as you can see in the table above. Before the outbreak, the analyst expected the shipments of traditional PCs to decline 6.8% year-over-year in Q2; now it expects it to fall 10.3%. IDC also attributed the decline to the transition from Windows 7 to Windows 10, now that Windows 7 has reached end-of-life

IDC also said it's expecting an 8.2% drop in shipments during Q1 2020, followed by a 12.7% decline in Q2 "as the existing inventory of components and finished goods from the first quarter will have been depleted by the second quarter."

IDC predicted that the second half of 2020 will also show a market decline but better growth than the first half.  

  • Gurg
    First Trump warned the tech industry they should move their production to US or friendly nations with fair labor practices and that weren't stealing our technology. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump lowered tax rates as an in incentive for the tech companies to move their production back to the US. The tech industry shrugged it off and did nothing. Then Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump announce that the Defense Dept was reviewing the sourcing of goods and would stop purchasing goods produced in China to ensure sourcing if hostilities broke out with China. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump banned some sales of US tech to Huawei and purchases from them. The tech industry whined and did nothing. I'll be generous and just say that poor Chinese hygiene and inferior medical care resulted in the Coronavirus and Chinese factory closings. Will the tech industry response again be to just whine and do nothing? Or will they finally come to their senses and move their production from China?
    Just how thick headed are the CEOs of the tech companies?
    Reply
  • Questors
    Gurg said:
    First Trump warned the tech industry they should move their production to US or friendly nations with fair labor practices and that weren't stealing our technology. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump lowered tax rates as an in incentive for the tech companies to move their production back to the US. The tech industry shrugged it off and did nothing. Then Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump announce that the Defense Dept was reviewing the sourcing of goods and would stop purchasing goods produced in China to ensure sourcing if hostilities broke out with China. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump banned some sales of US tech to Huawei and purchases from them. The tech industry whined and did nothing. I'll be generous and just say that poor Chinese hygiene and inferior medical care resulted in the Coronavirus and Chinese factory closings. 1. Will the tech industry response again be to just whine and do nothing? Or will they finally come to their senses and move their production from China? 2. Just how thick headed are the CEOs of the tech companies?
    Yes, they will whine, blame the president and raise prices. Lefties are incapable of learning from their mistakes as present day failures and history clearly reveals. Besides, it's too easy to blame someone else and pad your wallet all the while.
    Since human being are not supposed to be able to live and function without a brain, there is no real answer here.
    Reply
  • pcperson11
    Questors said:
    Yes, they will whine, blame the president and raise prices. Lefties are incapable of learning from their mistakes as present day failures and history clearly reveals. Besides, it's too easy to blame someone else and pad your wallet all the while.
    Since human being are not supposed to be able to live and function without a brain, there is no real answer here.
    All it takes is a search and you will see Trump is a do as i say not as i do person.
    "But many of his own products wouldn't fit that bill. The president and his daughter largely manufacture Trump-branded products in countries like China, Indonesia, Turkey and Canada. " "Unfortunately, my ties are made in China," Trump admitted in June 2016. " and that's not all
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-event-touted-made-america-goods-lot-his-merchandise-couldn-n893656
    live and learn he is not what you think like many others who had power, they lie to the people and the people eat it up, today no excuse so many places to do research and with Trump most lies come right out of his mouth.
    Reply
  • imamofo
    Gurg said:
    First Trump warned the tech industry they should move their production to US or friendly nations with fair labor practices and that weren't stealing our technology. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump lowered tax rates as an in incentive for the tech companies to move their production back to the US. The tech industry shrugged it off and did nothing. Then Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump announce that the Defense Dept was reviewing the sourcing of goods and would stop purchasing goods produced in China to ensure sourcing if hostilities broke out with China. The tech industry whined and did nothing. Trump banned some sales of US tech to Huawei and purchases from them. The tech industry whined and did nothing. I'll be generous and just say that poor Chinese hygiene and inferior medical care resulted in the Coronavirus and Chinese factory closings. Will the tech industry response again be to just whine and do nothing? Or will they finally come to their senses and move their production from China?
    Just how thick headed are the CEOs of the tech companies?

    Even if these companies wanted to move production back to the US do you really believe this could be done in 3.5 years? Apple, Microsoft, etc dont manufacture their own products; they hire companies specializing in production to do that for them. They would need to find companies willing to produce the products in the US which would require huge investments in new factories and supply chains because we simply don't have the infrastructure required. This would be a massive undertaking and really isn't feasible while keeping the prices of products at their current level. The massive failure of the promised Foxconn factory is Wisconsin is a good case study of how well this would go.
    Reply
  • Gurg
    imamofo said:
    Even if these companies wanted to move production back to the US do you really believe this could be done in 3.5 years? Apple, Microsoft, etc dont manufacture their own products; they hire companies specializing in production to do that for them. They would need to find companies willing to produce the products in the US which would require huge investments in new factories and supply chains because we simply don't have the infrastructure required. This would be a massive undertaking and really isn't feasible while keeping the prices of products at their current level. The massive failure of the promised Foxconn factory is Wisconsin is a good case study of how well this would go.

    TSMC started construction of new Fab 18 in Taiwan for 5nm tech in spring of 2018 and expects to achieve volume production in 2020 on Phase 1 of three. Roughly one year of construction, second year move in equipment and third year volume production.

    https://www.cleanroomtechnology.com/news/article_page/TSMC_starts_construction_of_Fab_18_in_Taiwan/139101
    Cost of new Fab is up to around $10 Billion. At 12-31-2019 Apple cash and short term investments of $107 Billion was enough to fund 10 massive new Fabs.

    Reply