Market research and tech analyst firm IDC reckons that global PC sales will reach 274 million units in 2025. Thus, we should be looking at a 4.1% uplift in PC sales compared to 2024, indicates IDC. This appears to be good news for the PC industry, and factors including a race to beat U.S. tariffs and Windows 11 are behind the upward revision, say the firm’s analysts.
We last wrote about IDC global PC shipment forecasts back in February, when the impact of U.S. tariffs and the cool reception to AI PCs were expected to be headwinds affecting the industry. At that time, IDC expected global PC sales to be up 3.7% (at 273 million units) compared to 2024 (262.7 million units were shipped last year).
IDC has adjusted its previous estimates upward after it observed that PC makers shipped larger-than-usual volumes to the U.S. ahead of tariff deadlines. “The 90 day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90 day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US,” explained Jean Philippe Bouchard, research VP with IDC's Worldwide PC Trackers.
That artificial boost to U.S. shipments might easily be cancelled out by an oversupply of PCs in subsequent months, with the PC maker's actions accentuating the ebb and flow of supply and demand.
Other negative sentiment regarding expected PC shipment volumes stems from things like worsening macroeconomic conditions, upward pressure on pricing, and degraded consumer sentiment, noted Bouchard.
Clock ticking on Windows 10
But it isn’t all doom and gloom for PC makers. Tom’s Hardware readers will be well aware of the clock ticking on Windows 10. The popular OS will reach its end-of-life (EOL) on October 14 this year, meaning no more security updates, technical support, or bug fixes will be forthcoming (probably). In other words, Windows 11 migration will continue steadily throughout the year, if not enjoying a significant boost in or around October.
As for 2026, IDC forecasts “a slight contraction” for the industry. It surmises that Windows 11 migration will stabilize, and the market will be weaker in general. Meanwhile, some hope AI PCs will finally start living up to their promise in 2026, but we shall have to wait and see about that.
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