Anthropic CEO says AI could cause up to 20% unemployment within five years, wipe out half of all entry-level white collar jobs
AI is seemingly the train that cannot be stopped
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who helms the company behind ChatGPT rival Claude, has warned that artificial intelligence could wipe out a staggering 50% of all entry-level white collar jobs, while spiking unemployment by up to 20% in the next five years, in a new interview with Axios.
Amodei reportedly said in an interview that AI could wipe out "half of all entry-level white-collar jobs", Axios reports, while increasing unemployment by 10-20%. Perhaps more unsettling, he says this could happen in the next one to five years.
According to the report, Amodei says that AI companies and the government should stop "sugar-coating" what's coming, namely, "the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs."
Axios says Amodei wants to buoy government and AI companies into action to get the country ready for such an event, and to protect people from the incursion.
Amodei hinted that lawmakers are asleep at the wheel, saying most people seemed unaware "that this is about to happen," and that because it sounds crazy, people simply don't believe it.
The report highlights Anthropic's Claude 4 Opus rollout, which recently launched with the ability to code at a near-human level, as well as scheme and deceive. It's the same model that we recently reported sabotaged shutdown mechanism commands, even attempting to blackmail the humans trying to turn it off.
Amodei told Axios he envisions a future where "Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced — and 20% of people don't have jobs" as one possible scenario that could be unlocked by the "unimaginable" possibilities of AI.
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Amodei reiterated that producers of AI tech have a duty of care and an obligation to be honest about the future threat, and highlighted a clear, strange dynamic at play. Amodei believes critics think AI builders are just trying to hype up their own products, ignoring warnings about the future of AI as a result.
He went on to spell out how this "white-collar bloodbath" could unfold, driven by the advancements of AI models like OpenAI's ChatGPT. The U.S. government, driven by fears about falling behind China or spooking workers, stays quiet about the dangers and doesn't regulate. Likewise, most Americans ignore the growing threat of AI, specifically to their jobs, before finally business leaders realize the savings of replacing humans with AI, doing this en masse, with everyone else only realizing before it's too late.
According to the report, Anthropic's own research shows AI is currently being used mostly to augment jobs done by humans, but Amodei says this will eventually progress more towards automation, where AI does the job instead of a human.
The report highlights further context around significant layoffs at companies like Microsoft and Meta's vision of a future where mid-level coders will soon be unnecessary.
Amodei likened the task to a train that can't be stopped by just stepping in front of it, but rather one that requires steering. He says a change in course is possible but needs to be enacted "now."
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Stephen is Tom's Hardware's News Editor with almost a decade of industry experience covering technology, having worked at TechRadar, iMore, and even Apple over the years. He has covered the world of consumer tech from nearly every angle, including supply chain rumors, patents, and litigation, and more. When he's not at work, he loves reading about history and playing video games.
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Gururu Bought time. We need those people to take on trade skills to increase competition among plumbers and electricians. Prices way too high.Reply -
SomeoneElse23 Like the disclaimer you see on all on "AI":Reply
This information may not be accurate. -
Jabberwocky79 It's all fun and games until it happens to you. I recently lost my most lucrative contract because they company decided to eliminate the design department in favor of AI. In most cases, it's not that AI can actually do a better job than a human, but the problem is that CEOs believe it can. Throw in the tremendous cost savings, and they believe it's worth the gamble, even at the expense of sub-par results.Reply
This is just the start. I think society is going to change tremendously in the next 5 years, and I don't think it's pretty. There are a lot of people in white collar jobs because they don't have the physical capability of doing blue collar work. How is everyone going to support themselves? -
Heat_Fan89 Reply
That sucks and sorry to hear that. That is the problem when those in charge, just think it will go according to plan because they wish it so. It's kind of like NAFTA when Ross Perot was derided for saying out loud, "the giant sucking sound" or how California wants to eliminate gas powered vehicles by 2035.Jabberwocky79 said:It's all fun and games until it happens to you. I recently lost my most lucrative contract because they company decided to eliminate the design department in favor of AI. In most cases, it's not that AI can actually do a better job than a human, but the problem is that CEOs believe it can. Throw in the tremendous cost savings, and they believe it's worth the gamble, even at the expense of sub-par results.
This is just the start. I think society is going to change tremendously in the next 5 years, and I don't think it's pretty. There are a lot of people in white collar jobs because they don't have the physical capability of doing blue collar work. How is everyone going to support themselves?
California did not consider that they have an electric grid problem that can't currently handle the current 10% of their EV's, even requesting that EV owners charge their vehicles outside of peak hours. EV's tend to cost more and cost more to insure and if they get flooded by water, they become a fire/explosion risk so they are essentially totaled.
The people in charge never think things thru and don't consider how the real world works. You asked how is everyone supposed to support themselves? The idea of a "universal basic income" has been floated by governments around the world. -
Jabberwocky79 Reply
Thanks. Yeah, I'm convinced that there is no solution to any major problem that doesn't create a different major problem. Whether it's technology, economy, politics, or physics, there is no such thing as a 100% fully justified, fair solution to all principles involved.Heat_Fan89 said:That sucks and sorry to hear that. That is the problem when those in charge, just think it will go according to plan because they wish it so. It's kind of like NAFTA when Ross Perot was derided for saying out loud, "the giant sucking sound" or how California wants to eliminate gas powered vehicles by 2035.
California did not consider that they have an electric grid problem that can't currently handle the current 10% of their EV's, even requesting that EV owners charge their vehicles outside of peak hours. EV's tend to cost more and cost more to insure and if they get flooded by water, they become a fire/explosion risk so they are essentially totaled.
The people in charge never think things thru and don't consider how the real world works. You asked how is everyone supposed to support themselves? The idea of a "universal basic income" has been floated by governments around the world.
I often use AI in my daily workflows on a small scale, and there are a handful of uses where I genuinely adore it. But as for the AI revolution as a whole, I wish I could pitch it into the hottest volcano imaginable. -
Eximo I think you will find that pretty much all modern cars are totaled by flooding. The labor to go through all the electronics is usually more than the car is worth unless it is brand new.Reply
Needs drive infrastructure. Everyone was so anti-nuclear power for the last 30 years. Soon as all these AI datacenters popped up, look what is being fast tracked.
Home charging of an EV requires relatively little power as well, easily serviced by a quite small solar installation and battery. I believe I saw a chart recently that showed the same growth in US solar power in the last 3 years, as the previous 8, and that compared to the previous 15.
Yes, EVs are more expensive up front but there is real long term savings. Average gasoline car fuel and maintenance, $4475, $3000 of that being fuel. (Though that would be something like 30,000 miles per year in a 4 cylinder, but I assume the average includes trucks) Fuel mileage of EVs is, at worst, twice as good, so $1500 in fuel, plus reduced maintenance. US DoE is a little more pessimistic and states a roughly 40% savings annually.
The main issue today is rapid depreciation, which is more of a matter of consumer sentiment than anything else. -
USAFRet Reply
Which, unfortunately, does not work if you live in apartment or condo.Eximo said:Home charging of an EV requires relatively little power as well, easily serviced by a quite small solar installation and battery. -
Jabberwocky79 Reply
I would argue that a bigger problem than rapid depreciation is the damage being done to the environment to manufacture those things. That's not an argument against EVs, just illustrating my point that there isn't a solution that doesn't create another problem. Applying that back to the original topic - AI is making a few corporations rich, and some other software development companies may be able to figure out how to capitalize on it, but it seems to be on track to create a huge economic problem for individuals. Any 'solution' to a problem can seem great - it just depends on what ramifications you choose to ignore.Eximo said:I think you will find that pretty much all modern cars are totaled by flooding. The labor to go through all the electronics is usually more than the car is worth unless it is brand new.
Needs drive infrastructure. Everyone was so anti-nuclear power for the last 30 years. Soon as all these AI datacenters popped up, look what is being fast tracked.
Home charging of an EV requires relatively little power as well, easily serviced by a quite small solar installation and battery. I believe I saw a chart recently that showed the same growth in US solar power in the last 3 years, as the previous 8, and that compared to the previous 15.
Yes, EVs are more expensive up front but there is real long term savings. Average gasoline car fuel and maintenance, $4475, $3000 of that being fuel. (Though that would be something like 30,000 miles per year in a 4 cylinder, but I assume the average includes trucks) Fuel mileage of EVs is, at worst, twice as good, so $1500 in fuel, plus reduced maintenance. US DoE is a little more pessimistic and states a roughly 40% savings annually.
The main issue today is rapid depreciation, which is more of a matter of consumer sentiment than anything else. -
Eximo Reply
That is a separate problem, and not insurmountable. Some apartments already offer charging points, a lot depends on the parking layout.USAFRet said:Which, unfortunately, does not work if you live in apartment or condo.
Typical daily driving can be serviced by a regular outlet. Even at the paltry rate of 5mi/hour, I generally spent more than 10 hours at home each day, usually more, that was 50 miles range. I did it for several years.
A lot of fast charging infrastructure is built in places with excess capacity to start with. Hotels and large retail locations being the most common in the US. Though I have been seeing more gas stations / convenience stores start to put them in. -
USAFRet Reply
Right.Eximo said:That is a separate problem, and not insurmountable. Some apartments already offer charging points, a lot depends on the parking layout.
Typical daily driving can be serviced by a regular outlet. Even at the paltry rate of 5mi/hour, I generally spent more than 10 hours at home each day, usually more, that was 50 miles range. I did it for several years.
A lot of fast charging infrastructure is built in places with excess capacity to start with. Hotels and large retail locations being the most common in the US. Though I have been seeing more gas stations / convenience stores start to put them in.
I didn't say unsurmountable, but rather...a whole other problem.
For my daily commute use, an EV would easily serve.
But I've have to rewire the house, AND get rid of my pet JCW.