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Nvidia's Kepler to Arrive in 2012

By - Source: X-bit labs | B 33 comments

Nvidia will release its next-generation graphics cards later than expected.

Ken Brown, a spokesman for Nvidia, told X-bit Labs that Kepler silicon will be available this year, but now it seems production of graphic cards will not happen until 2012. So far, we have been under the impression that Kepler cards could be arriving just in time for Christmas, even if Nvidia already had said at the International Supercomputing Conference in June that the new cards may be delayed by a month or two.

Kepler will be succeeding the Fermi architecture and use a 28 nm production process. There have been rumors that Nvidia is struggling with the 28 nm production and that manufacturing is causing the delay. Of course, Nvidia isn't commenting on the delay and no chip manufacturer would ever give a statement on yield issues anyway. However, Nvidia is under pressure of getting Kepler out on time and especially get to Kepler right. (The current Fermi architecture was delayed several times and had a less than perfect launch.)

According to information released by Nvidia so far, Kepler cards will triple the dual-precision floating point performance of Fermi and hit up to 6 dp GFlops, while its successor Maxwell (scheduled for a 2013 release) is expected to with almost 16 dp GFlops. These are big promises and Nvidia wouldn't want to miss them.

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  • 27 Hide
    dragonsqrrl , August 5, 2011 11:57 PM
    "According to information released by Nvidia so far, Kepler cards will triple the dual-precision floating point performance of Fermi and hit up to 6 dp GFlops, while its successor Maxwell (scheduled for a 2013 release) is expected to with almost 16 dp GFlops. These are big promises and Nvidia wouldn't want to miss them."

    ...sigh,

    You left out a small yet crucial piece of information that completely changes the meaning of this last paragraph. Per W. Nvidia says Kepler will triple the double precision performance per Watt over Fermi, they've never said anything about a flat out tripling in dp performance.
  • 21 Hide
    Anonymous , August 5, 2011 11:45 PM
    Moore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.
  • 19 Hide
    Grebuloner , August 5, 2011 11:59 PM
    How about some proofreading and checking your facts...6 (or even 16) dp gflops is way below most GPUs and many CPUs. Do you mean GFLOPs/watt as the chart that's made the rounds says? That's a little more impressive.

    /Thinking ahead to Maxwell or post-SI as next upgrade cycle.
Other Comments
  • 10 Hide
    Anonymous , August 5, 2011 11:44 PM
    At least that means my current one will live longer...
  • 21 Hide
    Anonymous , August 5, 2011 11:45 PM
    Moore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.
  • 27 Hide
    dragonsqrrl , August 5, 2011 11:57 PM
    "According to information released by Nvidia so far, Kepler cards will triple the dual-precision floating point performance of Fermi and hit up to 6 dp GFlops, while its successor Maxwell (scheduled for a 2013 release) is expected to with almost 16 dp GFlops. These are big promises and Nvidia wouldn't want to miss them."

    ...sigh,

    You left out a small yet crucial piece of information that completely changes the meaning of this last paragraph. Per W. Nvidia says Kepler will triple the double precision performance per Watt over Fermi, they've never said anything about a flat out tripling in dp performance.
  • 19 Hide
    Grebuloner , August 5, 2011 11:59 PM
    How about some proofreading and checking your facts...6 (or even 16) dp gflops is way below most GPUs and many CPUs. Do you mean GFLOPs/watt as the chart that's made the rounds says? That's a little more impressive.

    /Thinking ahead to Maxwell or post-SI as next upgrade cycle.
  • 0 Hide
    4745454b , August 6, 2011 12:27 AM
    This wasn't up when I made a post about this subject this morning. I'll copy what I wrote in this thread. Props to dragonsqrrl who caught what I did and Charlie missed.

    http://semiaccurate.com/2011/07/05/nvidias-kepler-comes-in-to-focus/

    I know you guys hate him, but he was correct with Fermi. Anand is also running an article saying the same.

    http://www.anandtech.com/show/4572/kepler-gpus-shipping-this-year-nvidia-says-yes

    Quote:
    Back to the article on Fudzilla, the second paragraph contains three bullet points, that the chip has taped out, there is a lot of leakage yet to be dealt with, and the 40nm to 28nm transition is tough.


    Remember that for each respin of silicon, you'll need to tack on another 6 weeks or so. If tape out happened in June, the first respin won't be done until mid July at the earliest, probably more like August sometime. IF that one is the one they want to run with, production is 3mo, so they could have something ready by Nov. Nvidia has already said it's not happening, so the leakage much be bad.

    I'd like to point out there seems to be an issue with the S/A article. He keeps going on about 2.5x the number of transistors, but I think he missed something. S/A quote.

    Quote:
    First is that Kepler has about 2.5x the DP floating point performance of Fermi, at least according to Nvidia projections.


    That doesn't quite match what Anand reported.

    Quote:
    For Kepler NVIDIA is expecting "about 3x improvement in [double precision] performance per watt"


    I added the bold part as I think this is what Nvidia meant. I think Charlie missed that. Other then that error, I don't think you'll be seeing Kepler for sale until H1 2012. Right now it depends on how many respins they need to fix their leakage problem.
  • 9 Hide
    hotchrisbfries , August 6, 2011 1:36 AM
    ch1pluvrMoore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.


    Law of Diminishing Returns

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns
  • -1 Hide
    jeremy1183 , August 6, 2011 1:45 AM
    figures
  • 3 Hide
    ojas , August 6, 2011 4:47 AM
    Finally!
    i hope the cards are good, might upgrade my aging 9600GT finally...i just hope a smaller architecture means less heat, and consume less power...

    Hope they're cheaper than fermi at launch ;) 
  • 6 Hide
    legacy7955 , August 6, 2011 4:56 AM
    I for one am happy to see that a hardware company is actually SLOWING down the release of a product, because so many times in recent history product gets rushed out the door and is not completely tested and or checked as thoroughly as it should have been.

    I'd rather wait a bit longer and get good durability, usability, and reliability than get a product that was rushed to market plagued with problems.
  • -5 Hide
    dragonsqrrl , August 6, 2011 5:30 AM
    4745454bThis wasn't up when I made a post about this subject this morning. I'll copy what I wrote in this thread. Props to dragonsqrrl who caught what I did and Charlie... I added the bold part as I think this is what Nvidia meant. I think Charlie missed that. Other then that error, I don't think you'll be seeing Kepler for sale until H1 2012. Right now it depends on how many respins they need to fix their leakage problem.

    I'd expect nothing less out of Demerjian...
  • 7 Hide
    shin0bi272 , August 6, 2011 10:58 AM
    (god I love when I post something when Im not logged in then log in on the pop up so what I posted will post and it doesnt post... thats great. Lets have some more of that!)

    a good article on the issues that tsmc is having...

    http://news.softpedia.com/news/AMD-Southern-Islands-and-Nvidia-Kepler-May-Use-Different-28nm-Processes-Report-212552.shtml
  • -5 Hide
    4745454b , August 6, 2011 12:03 PM
    Quote:
    Finally!
    i hope the cards are good, might upgrade my aging 9600GT finally...i just hope a smaller architecture means less heat, and consume less power...


    What are you smoking? Who said anything about a smaller arch? I'm sure Nvidia is piling more shaders into their chip, so even with the die shrink I bet it will be larger then Fermi.

    Quote:
    I'd expect nothing less out of Demerjian...


    Sometimes your hatred of a company means you miss things. Good thing I don't hate Nvidia, just dislike them:p 

    Quote:
    a good article on the issues that tsmc is having...

    http://news.softpedia.com/news/AMD [...] 2552.shtml


    Interesting, though I'm not sure it explains the issues TSMC is having. I wonder after reading that however if this means AMD will have clock speed with their cards. Low power usually equals lower clocks as well. I wonder how this will impact AMD.
  • 2 Hide
    hannibal , August 6, 2011 12:21 PM
    Quote:
    Quote :
    a good article on the issues that tsmc is having...

    http://news.softpedia.com/news/AMD [...] 2552.shtml


    Interesting, though I'm not sure it explains the issues TSMC is having. I wonder after reading that however if this means AMD will have clock speed with their cards. Low power usually equals lower clocks as well. I wonder how this will impact AMD.


    It depend on how long time it will take Nvidia to get Kepler right with more advanced technology. If they are lucky. Nvidia has much better GPU this time. If they are unlucky, the AMD is ready for their 8xxxx series when TMSC finally manage to make desent chips to Nvidia...
  • 3 Hide
    4745454b , August 6, 2011 1:10 PM
    I was thinking about this over my last hour of work. It might not be bad for AMD. The article said something about AMD using this low power process for its 7670 and 7650 chips? These would be the upgraded 6670? AMD could do this to be "first", while waiting for the HKMG 28nm process to get finished and then release the rest of their chips on that. If anyone has any info on what the clock speeds could be on the low power process I'd love to see it.
  • -6 Hide
    BluntObjection , August 6, 2011 1:15 PM
    So basically hold on to your current card till 2013. Doesn't make sense to buy a card during 2012, then have its big brother come out a year later. As slow as the gaming industry is I doubt I could justify replacing my current card for another 3 years even.
  • 4 Hide
    drumsrule786 , August 6, 2011 4:46 PM
    I think the reason things are seeming to slow down is it is getting harder and harder to push silicon any smaller. Pretty soon we are going to have to switch to different materials, there's a limit to what silicon can do, and it seems we are reaching that within a decade or so
  • 1 Hide
    danwat1234 , August 6, 2011 7:48 PM
    ch1pluvrMoore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.

    They don't use that much power when idle. I like new video chips, I can use them to encode video faster and to run folding@home/seti@home for science. Plus it makes all the cooler running chipsets cheaper.
  • 0 Hide
    Anonymous , August 7, 2011 1:32 AM
    danwat: Been drinking? I fail to see how that applies to the engineering difficulties associated with the next Nvidia chip being the size of a dinner plate.

    Besides, anything you've described could be done with a much more reasonable GPU like a Radeon 6850 or below....
  • 1 Hide
    zxcvbnm44 , August 7, 2011 3:13 AM
    nVidia should have used Gallium-Arsenide compound semiconductors for 6xx series.

    /thread

    owait, GaAs contains extraordinarily high levels of impurities in relation to silicon and thus cannot be manufactured past a 500 nm node, not to mention gallium is rarer than gold and arsenic is very toxic and a carcinogen.

    nvm

    nVidia, you do good job, keep going with your Kepler stuff.

    (P.S. GaAs is just plain BA. The Cray 3 ran off of it, and it can support frequencies up to 250 GHz)
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