PC RAM Price Declines Are Slowing, Says TrendForce
But prices are being held up by artificial means like limiting production and holding large inventories.
The DRAM price drops seen in recent quarters are slowing, according to a new report by TrendForce. The computer industry market researchers say that, in the current quarter, we will only see DRAM prices decline in the region of 0-5%. This figure contrasts with Q2 2023 DRAM price decline of between 13-18%. These headline figures are for the DRAM market as a whole (including sever, mobile, graphics), but also hold true for the segment that interests us most - PC DRAM.
According to TrendForce, one of the reasons that DRAM price declines have slowed is that the big three manufacturers have been cutting their production. Such action may provide temporary relief for the producers, but attempting to artificially create scarcity, and running production much slower than it could be, isn't usually a sustainable strategy in a competitive market. We would rather DRAM makers spur demand by making higher capacity RAM configurations more affordable, for example.
Another fly in the ointment for DRAM producers is that TrendForce asserts there are high DRAM inventory levels. Holding excessive inventories is also not a solid long-term strategy. Any release of pressure from the production line or inventory by any of the big players could precipitate further big price declines. In the meantime, they may hold in hope of a new device or platform inspiring lots of DRAM purchases.
With the Q2 and Q3 figures, and market knowledge, TrendForce says it doesn't see the chance of a rebound in DRAM prices "until 2024."
Looking more closely at PC DRAM in particular, TrendForce says that there is still DDR4 oversupply - and in the current quarter (Q3) prices are expected to slide 3-8%. PC DDR5 will see a more modest 0-5% drop in Q3, says the market researcher. Thus we can see the influence of PC makers and DIYers shifting gradually to systems using the newer, faster memory standard, and perhaps even early adopters now splashing out on higher-capacity DDR5 kits.
Graphics DRAM is a similar story to PC DRAM's decelerating Q2 vs Q3 pricing declines. TrendForce notes that GDDR6 16Gb chip (2GB VRAM) demand is pretty high due to recent RTX 40 launches. Moreover, we are approaching the peak season for component makers to integrate VRAM, so graphics RAM might bottom out (and rise) before PC system memory.
In conclusion, these figures seem to indicate that the decline in PC RAM prices we have seen over recent quarters might be slowing. For some that will be a sign that it is a good time to buy - and this decision might be right for RAM upgraders, but there are so many other PC component prices to consider for a new full system.
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Mark Tyson is a news editor at Tom's Hardware. He enjoys covering the full breadth of PC tech; from business and semiconductor design to products approaching the edge of reason.
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bit_user High inventory levels suggest that any rebound is going to be a gradual one, rather than a sudden spike. Although, I wonder how much of that inventory is biased towards DDR4 vs. DDR5.Reply -
TJ Hooker I keep hearing that there's been a glut of DRAM out there for months, but ECC DDR5 still seems nearly nonexistent (and expensive) in retail/consumer channels?Reply -
Makaveli
That will most likely continue to be the case since ECC memory is bought mostly by Enterprise.TJ Hooker said:I keep hearing that there's been a glut of DRAM out there for months, but ECC DDR5 still seems nearly nonexistent (and expensive) in retail/consumer channels?
So they will want to keep the price there as high as possible. -
bit_user
Which: unbuffered or registered?TJ Hooker said:I keep hearing that there's been a glut of DRAM out there for months, but ECC DDR5 still seems nearly nonexistent (and expensive) in retail/consumer channels?
I've seen unbuffered on the market and available since about December/January, with generally consistent availability since. Here's a 32 GiB DDR5-4800 Kingston part:
https://www.provantage.com/kingston-technology-ksm48e40bd8km-32hm~7KINN0E4.htm (267 units in stock)
https://www.newegg.com/kingston-32gb/p/N82E16820242792
Here's the same for Crucial:
https://www.newegg.com/crucial-32gb/p/N82E16820156359https://www.cdw.com/product/micron-32gb-ddr5-4800mhz-ecc-udimm-2rx8-cl40-server-memory/7415973 (26 units in stock)
Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be anything faster on the market. I'm therefore probably going to buy 2x 16 GiB and then just upgrade to 2x 32 GiB in a couple years, when DDR5-5600 ECC UDIMMs are cheap and plentiful (I hope).
As for Registered, they're were rumored to be in short supply due to a shortage of the additional PMIC (?) chips required by those DIMMs. I don't know where that issue stands, currently. -
bit_user
Restricting supply to the point of unavailability would seem self-defeating, especially if they're really do have excess inventory. They have to carry excess inventory on their books, and that doesn't look good to investors or lenders.Makaveli said:That will most likely continue to be the case since ECC memory is bought mostly by Enterprise.
So they will want to keep the price there as high as possible.
When I compare the Newegg price of Kingston DDR5-4800 UDIMMs (both sold by Newegg, not 3rd parties), the ECC memory is actually a tiny bit cheaper than expected:
https://www.newegg.com/Product/Productcompare?CompareItemList=20-242-703%2C20-242-792
Unlike all previous ECC DIMMs, DDR5 must now have 25% more DRAM chips instead of 12.5%. So, if their base 32 GiB DDR5-4800 UDIMM is $125, then you'd expect their ECC version to cost about $156.25. However, that assumes basically all of the cost is the DRAM chips, so maybe it costs exactly what it should.
Then again, that non-ECC DIMM I used for comparison is one of the more expensive 32 GiB options. So, maybe not the best choice for establishing a cost basis. By contrast, Crucial has this one currently selling for just $78.
https://www.newegg.com/crucial-32gb-288-pin-ddr5-sdram/p/N82E16820156285
The ECC version I linked in the previous post is selling for $125, whereas the extrapolated price would be just $97.50. -
TJ Hooker
I was looking at unbuffered, in Canada. It's actually not as bad as I thought, I guess I wasn't looking hard enough/in the right places. E.g. filtering by DDR5 and ECC on newegg.ca indicated no results, but they do in fact have some (just not flagged properly I guess).bit_user said:Which: unbuffered or registered?
I've seen unbuffered on the market and available since about December/January, with generally consistent availability since. Here's a 32 GiB DDR5-4800 Kingston part:
https://www.provantage.com/kingston-technology-ksm48e40bd8km-32hm~7KINN0E4.htm (267 units in stock)
https://www.newegg.com/kingston-32gb/p/N82E16820242792
Here's the same for Crucial:
https://www.newegg.com/crucial-32gb/p/N82E16820156359https://www.cdw.com/product/micron-32gb-ddr5-4800mhz-ecc-udimm-2rx8-cl40-server-memory/7415973 (26 units in stock)
Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be anything faster on the market. I'm therefore probably going to buy 2x 16 GiB and then just upgrade to 2x 32 GiB in a couple years, when DDR5-5600 ECC UDIMMs are cheap and plentiful (I hope).
As for Registered, they're were rumored to be in short supply due to a shortage of the additional PMIC (?) chips required by those DIMMs. I don't know where that issue stands, currently.
Edit: Looks like Kingston makes some > 4800 MT/s sticks. E.g. DDR5-5600 ECC UDIMMPrice is even pretty close to 4800 MT/s ECC sticks, at least in Canada. It's all at least twice the price of the same capacity of non-ECC memory, but maybe that's normal? I've never shopped for ECC memory before. -
Li Ken-un Supermicro is still selling DDR5 ECC UDIMMs pretty cheaply: $122 for the 32 GiB. I got mine a few months ago for $112 each.Reply -
bit_user
Hey, thanks!TJ Hooker said:Edit: Looks like Kingston makes some > 4800 MT/s sticks. E.g. DDR5-5600 ECC UDIMM
I've searched their site before, but this time I just used the link I had handy, which was using their memory-finder to show memory compatible specific W680 motherboard. So, hopefully that's just because they have yet to certify it for that board and not because it's incompatible.
My recollection is that ECC memory usually carries a bigger price premium than it logically should, but not by nearly that much!TJ Hooker said:It's all at least twice the price of the same capacity of non-ECC memory, but maybe that's normal? I've never shopped for ECC memory before.
In the case of the two examples I quoted above, the Newegg price for Kingston DDR5-4800 ECC is only 20% greater than non-ECC, while Crucial's is 60.3% greater. However, I'm sure that's more to do with the price of the non-ECC DIMMs I'm comparing against ($125 vs. $78), since they differ more than the ECC DIMMs ($150 vs. $125) in both absolute and relative terms.
FWIW, the only place I found that DDR5-5600 ECC UDIMM was provantage:
https://www.provantage.com/kingston-technology-ksm56e46bd8km-32ha~7KINN0PQ.htm
Out of curiosity, which sites do you usually order from? -
bit_user
They also did this cute thing where the only memory they certified for this motherboard is their own:Li Ken-un said:Supermicro is still selling DDR5 ECC UDIMMs pretty cheaply: $122 for the 32 GiB. I got mine a few months ago for $112 each.
https://www.supermicro.com/en/support/resources/memory?sz=32.0&mspd=4.8000002&mtyp=186&id=50f0c93d6669d7b1549b0ae9a56ca17b&prid=88114&type=DDR5&ecc=1®=0&fbd=0&cpu=others
And that is currently limited to just DDR5-4800. -
TJ Hooker bit_user said:Hey, thanks!
I've searched their site before, but this time I just used the link I had handy, which was using their memory-finder to show memory compatible specific W680 motherboard. So, hopefully that's just because they have yet to certify it for that board and not because it's incompatible.
My recollection is that ECC memory usually carries a bigger price premium than it logically should, but not by nearly that much!
In the case of the two examples I quoted above, the Newegg price for Kingston DDR5-4800 ECC is only 20% greater than non-ECC, while Crucial's is 60.3% greater. However, I'm sure that's more to do with the price of the non-ECC DIMMs I'm comparing against ($125 vs. $78), since they differ more than the ECC DIMMs ($150 vs. $125) in both absolute and relative terms.
FWIW, the only place I found that DDR5-5600 ECC UDIMM was provantage:
https://www.provantage.com/kingston-technology-ksm56e46bd8km-32ha~7KINN0PQ.htm
Out of curiosity, which sites do you usually order from?
Memory Express is a Canadian computer chain that has a location in my city, I try to buy from them first but they don't always have the best selection, particularly for more niche things (like ECC memory). Otherwise, usually Newegg or Amazon (their Canadian webstores).
I found the Kingston DDR5-5600 on Mouser Canada, looks like they have them on their US site as well. Albeit with a several week lead time.
But the cheapest DDR5 ECC UDIMMs I could find were ~105-130 CAD for 16GB, whereas non-ECC is more like 55-65 CAD :(