Nvidia Predicts 570X GPU Performance Increase
TG Daily is reporting that Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang made an astonishing prediction, claiming that GPU computing will dramatically increase over the next six years, a mere 570 times that of today's capabilities in fact, while CPU performance will only increase a staggering 3x in the same timeframe.
According to Huang, who made his revelation at the Hot Chips symposium in Stanford University, the advancement would open the door to advanced forms of augmented reality and the development of real-time universal language translation devices. Wait? A universal translator? Sounds like Huang is talking Star Trek!
Huang also said that such advancements in GPU computation would also boost a number of applications such as interactive ray tracing, CGI simulations, energy exploration, and other "real-world" applications.
To me it looks like something you would see in NFS, nothing impressive.
Intel already tried and failed at this kind of breakthrough, they whipped up a frenzy with their sham terascale demonstration, then later they realized that Larrabee was going to suck, then they quietly watered down expectations, and it wouldn't even surprise me now if they quietly cancelled it's release altogether.
I think someone got "mere" and "staggering" backwards...
On topic: I think that this sounds more like marketing hyperbole. I agree with intesx81's assessment.
-mcg
Think of it this way, right now nVidia's top spec GPU is the G200b found in the GTX 285. Its made using a 55nm fabrication process. Current expectations are that 22nm fabrication will take over in about 2011-2012 with 16nm coming in about 2018 at the latest. Using a 22nm process, the same size die as in the G200b could fit 8 copies of the G200b in it. 16nm would give 16. You could say that GPU makers get that kind of scaling 'for free'. Its then up to them to come up with advances in design etc. A 16nm process would also run a fair bit faster anyway without the use of extra cores.
16nm die fab = 16x as many processing units + faster processing units
Put together 16nm die fab + 6 years of refinements and R&D + larger dies if necessary = 570x increase not that far fetched a claim.
http://www.lightandmatter.com/html_books/5op/ch01/figs/computer-ray-tracing.jpg
I think it was sarcasm. But you know how that doesn't always translate well through text.
While I doubt the 570x prediction myself it is actually what he said. Or at least what his slide said. Check the pictures.
http://blogs.nvidia.com/nTersect/