Report: DRAM Prices Set to Decline 3-8% in Q4 Due to High Levels of Inventory

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Clients stock up on DRAM

SK Hynix
(Image credit: SK Hynix)

In the latest report from TrendForce, a Taiwanese semiconductor market analyst firm, we have an updated estimation DRAM pricing structure for the upcoming quarter. As the report notes, DRAM prices are set to decline by 3-8% in the fourth quarter of 2021 (4Q21), due to the rising inventory of DRAM clients.

According to the report for 4Q21, the DRAM supply is at a healthy pace to outrun the demand, creating a price decline in the DRAM market. This decline is projected to be anywhere from 3 to 8%, compared to DRAM prices in the previous period.

What is the reason for this you might wonder? Well, according to the research data, DRAM suppliers are carrying a very healthy amount of inventory for their clients to absorb, however, clients are stocking up what is considered an unhealthy amount of inventory, resulting in smaller demand for a new supply to be added.

The report breaks down the demand per specific computing segments, covering PCs, notebooks, servers, mobile markets and their demand. The pandemic-fuelled demand for PCs has weakened, with growth is seemingly slowing down. When it comes to servers, the demand has lead to massive inventory stocking, where suppliers have stock for more than 10 weeks of shipments, creating a price decline for the first time this year. And last but not least, the mobile market is set to stay in the place with pricing, as relatively high demand for smartphones is keeping the price relevant.

TrendForce DRAM Market Pricing Prediction for Q4 2021

(Image credit: TrendForce)

Generally speaking, the DRAM market can adjust to the market conditions, more precisely, to the supply and demand ratio. This means that if there are supply and / or demand changes prices will alter accordingly. This report has shown us some information regarding the upcoming period, but what the next year holds is still largely unknown.

Aleksandar Kostovic
4 Comments Comment from the forums
  • digitalgriffin
    From a consumer level market, why would anyone buy RAM right now?

    DDR5 right around the corner. This is provided you can grab a GPU at a reasonable price. Otherwise the CPU boost for the consumers market would serve ZERO purpose. And that isn't happening.

    I'm sure as heck not spending $500 on a poor performance GPU on a $2000 system high end CPU + Memory Your GPU will hold you back and there is no point in invested in these new systems. It makes absolutely ZERO sense to buy anything right now until you get a complete system at once. This hold over "GPU" nonsense is ridiculous. By the time affordable performant GPU's come around your CPU will be outdated.

    I'm still staring at my 3400g and thinking if a 5700g upgrade is worth it for 8% uplift. The answer is "No" for $350. $350 could get you a 5700 graphics card at one point.
    Reply
  • spongiemaster
    It will probably be a couple years before there is a justifiable performance delta between DDR4 and DDR5. Beyond fringe cases we'll probably see highend ddr4 kits outperforming ddr5 with AlderLake at release.

    Just because everyone who wants a gpu at a certain price can't get one doesn't mean a whole lot of people are getting gpu's. There are plenty of people here that have current gen gpu's.
    Reply
  • alceryes
    Traditionally, the first-release speeds of next gen RAM, DDR5 in this case, is barely faster, and sometimes even slower, than a performance (OCd) set of the previous generation. Add to that the flurry of BIOS updates, necessary tweaking, and incompatibilities that go along with the initial release of new technology, and the picture may not be as rosy. It will eventually be a worthwhile upgrade, but I don't think it is right off the bat.
    Reply
  • digitalgriffin
    alceryes said:
    Traditionally, the first-release speeds of next gen RAM, DDR5 in this case, is barely faster, and sometimes even slower, than a performance (OCd) set of the previous generation. Add to that the flurry of BIOS updates, necessary tweaking, and incompatibilities that go along with the initial release of new technology, and the picture may not be as rosy. It will eventually be a worthwhile upgrade, but I don't think it is right off the bat.
    spongiemaster said:
    It will probably be a couple years before there is a justifiable performance delta between DDR4 and DDR5. Beyond fringe cases we'll probably see highend ddr4 kits outperforming ddr5 with AlderLake at release.

    Just because everyone who wants a gpu at a certain price can't get one doesn't mean a whole lot of people are getting gpu's. There are plenty of people here that have current gen gpu's.

    While I understand your arguments, there is a significant performance jump with platforms that do use DDR5. Early leaks and benchmarks prove this. Whether or not this is caused by DDR5 isn't the point. There's no point in investing this late in any DDR4 platform.

    Earlier in the year I said you could create a stop gap platform (like I did with 3400g) until GPU cards came back. Well the GPU market never settled down, and in fact got worse.

    I'm not chasing more bad money after bad waiting for GPU prices to come down. The bottleneck will always be the GPU side of things and that just doesn't make sense to update systems right now. New platform, bad GPU pricing. Sorry that just isn't going to fly with me. It's why I haven't bought a 5000 series CPU. And again, Zen 4 is looking to be a healthy leap. But without GPU's to justify it, there is no point.

    While enthusiast community is small, we do contribute a significant percentage. If enough of us lose interest, there will eventually be a decline in other hardware component prices. Heck even hardware channels have stopped reviewing cards. "What's the point?" And I support them on this. What's the point of buying 4/5 a car?
    Reply