Arm PC market share won't rise above 13% in 2025 says ABI Research

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Efficient new x86 chips may have blocked Arm's best route to laptop market growth.

Lenovo ThinkPad T14s (Gen 6, Snapdragon)
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Arm-based PCs won't rock the PC world in 2025, according to a recently published report by self-described tech intelligence experts, ABI Research. In a report outlining 101 tech trends that will – and won't – shape 2025, the analysts at ABI say they expect that "Arm-based PCs will represent only 13% of total PC shipments in 2025." This prediction might chill the hearts of companies like Qualcomm, and its investors, so let's take a closer look.

By the summer it seemed like we had been waiting for eons for the first Nuvia (Oryon) core-powered Arm processors to be released by Qualcomm for the PC market, and they were duly trotted out at Computex 2024. We also heard rather a lot of bluster and bravado regarding the expected fortunes of Arm PCs over the coming half-decade. Most notably, both the Arm CEO and Qualcomm CEO talked in public about Arm Windows PCs gaining a 50% market share within five years.

At release, the first Snapdragon X Elite and X Plus machines were propelled by featuring the first processors certified for Microsoft's Copilot+ PC program, and the stellar battery life offered by these laptops redefined untethered portability for Windows users. However, people weren't, and still aren't, impressed by Microsoft's Copilot+ misfire(s), and it only took a few months before the incumbent Intel and AMD Windows laptop rivals trotted out efficiency-tuned architectures to basically nullify the greatest selling point for Arm Windows PCs – battery life.

Is it any surprise, then, that ABI Research now thinks that there is limited potential for further Arm PC penetration in the coming year? The report highlights this is a pivotal year for the Arm PC platform, but it looks like it may be a dud.

ABI notes that as well as AMD and Intel spoiling the Arm PC dream, there has been disruptive legal squabbling between Arm's biggest players, especially regarding licensing and royalties. Last but not least, ABI doesn't see the x86 software advantage going away this year, either.

Though the laptop segment is the biggest target for Arm PC proponents, we reported on a very interesting Cinebench world record-setting 128-core Arm PC desktop tower yesterday.

Other ABI predictions for 2025

The full report from ABI touches on many other aspects of tech. We think readers might also be interested to hear that the analysts think AI PCs will become the new normal in 2025. Hopefully, moving local AI out of premium means there will be more reasons to own an AI PC, in a chicken-and-egg kind of fashion.

In other tech trend highlights, ABI predicts AI humanoids won't take over the world, semiconductor onshoring will still need several years to materialize as planned, and most people still won't want to wear smart glasses.

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Mark Tyson
Mark Tyson
News Editor

Mark Tyson is a news editor at Tom's Hardware. He enjoys covering the full breadth of PC tech; from business and semiconductor design to products approaching the edge of reason.

6 Comments Comment from the forums
  • redgarl
    There is no way ARM is going to take some marketshare when they fail to impress and are about as efficient than x86 on mobile.

    Showing 10-15% better battery life is not significant enough for all the compatibility issues.
    Reply
  • bit_user
    redgarl said:
    There is no way ARM is going to take some marketshare when they fail to impress and are about as efficient than x86 on mobile.

    Showing 10-15% better battery life is not significant enough for all the compatibility issues.
    This was just the first generation of Oryon and it's still on an older process node. Qualcomm's next ARM PC will use 3rd gen cores. Between that and the maturing Windows/ARM ecosystem, it should be more competitive and generally a more viable option for non-gamers.

    The coup de grace would be if they decide to compete on price, which might essentially be MediaTek's strategy. That's when we might finally see some x86 blood in the water.
    Reply
  • ekio
    People refusing to see x86 is bound to die and arm is bound to rise are like people who do not understand that on an engineering standpoint, arm is vastly superior.

    It’s like defending hard drives vs solid state drives, it’s like defending copper network cables vs fiber optics… like yeah you are attach to your old habits and they are more compatible with the existing ecosystem, but what’s the point to sh!t on their superior successor…?
    Reply
  • watzupken
    "Efficient new x86 chips may have blocked Arm's best route to laptop market growth."

    I think the above analysis is not the root cause of poor ARM based laptop sales. It is quite obvious that people are not willing to get a laptop running Qualcomm SOC due to (1) compatibility issues, and, (2) price. In any reviews you find out there, the key sticking point they called out is the issue with app compatibility. So for any potential buyers, after reading these reviews, they will naturally avoid it given that x86 looks efficient enough, like, the efficiency is not terrible so that they need to avoid. So efficiency of x86 is more of a tertiary reason why ARM devices are not selling well. The main driver for ARM PC sale is likely going to Apple only for the near future.
    Reply
  • redgarl
    ekio said:
    People refusing to see x86 is bound to die and arm is bound to rise are like people who do not understand that on an engineering standpoint, arm is vastly superior.

    It’s like defending hard drives vs solid state drives, it’s like defending copper network cables vs fiber optics… like yeah you are attach to your old habits and they are more compatible with the existing ecosystem, but what’s the point to sh!t on their superior successor…?
    There is absolutely no benefit for ARM.

    x86 is about as efficient, if not more in server workloads
    it is better for compute
    there is less variants of the uarch making it straightforward
    there is no compatibility issues with OSes
    beside cell phones and apple devices, ARM has been a joke
    Reply
  • bit_user
    redgarl said:
    There is absolutely no benefit for ARM.

    x86 is about as efficient, if not more in server workloads
    it is better for compute
    there is less variants of the uarch making it straightforward
    there is no compatibility issues with OSes
    beside cell phones and apple devices, ARM has been a joke
    I disagree on pretty much every point, except for the one about Windows/ARM having some remaining compatibility issues (which are likely to affect relatively few users, apart from gamers).

    I could list my reasons, but I doubt you care and I've had this argument too many times, before. So, I'll just register my dissent and we can sit back and see how things play out, over the next couple years. If ARM is going to dominate x86, I think it should be pretty apparent by then.
    Reply