Qualcomm CEO says Arm taking 50% of the Windows PC market in five years is realistic — some OEMs expect Snapdragon chips to be 60% of their sales within three years
Arm taking the Windows PC market by storm.
Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon held a question-and-answer session with the press here at Computex 2024 in Taipei, Taiwan, as the company drives home its go-to-market message around its Snapdragon X Elite processors and celebrates its ecosystem of partners. I asked Amon what he thinks about Arm CEO Rene Haas's recent statement that he expects Arm chips to comprise 50% of the Windows PC market within the next five years and whether that is a realistic goal.
Amon affirmed the possibility of Arm taking 50% of the Windows PC market share in five years, and even said that some OEMs already plan for up to 60% of their Windows PC sales to be Snapdragon-equipped laptops within the next three years. Here's a transcript of the exchange:
"The CEO of Arm said yesterday that he's aiming for Arm to comprise 50% of the Windows PC market within the next five years. What are your thoughts on that?" I asked. "Do you think that's realistic, and how much of that do you think Qualcomm can address with Snapdragon chips?"
"Well, I like that; we're doing all the work," Amon responded, to laughter from the assembled press. "I will subscribe to that."
"Different OEMs are talking a little bit differently," Amon explained. "I like, for example, some of the things that some OEMs said in their earnings calls. How they think about this is changing. Some OEMs are talking about 40 to 60% of their total sales within three years. I also saw some OEMs talking about 50%, but those are the order of magnitudes. That's kind of the opportunity that we have."
"The reason this is important, because this sometimes gets missed in this whole conversation, is that, historically, in the PC market, there's a new version of Windows, and this new version of Windows will take a long time to go through adoption," Amon said. "For example, in the enterprise some enterprises are still running Windows 10, and those that were running Windows 7 took a long time to get Windows 10 — but this is different."
"This is a Windows change to Copilot+, and you'll see this huge push to say this is a new type of machine. This is a machine that increases productivity and has some new use cases, and it now has a more comprehensive suite of Copilot, so I expect the transition this time will be faster than any other version of Windows. So I think that's going to be a bigger sell. And I think there's some logic behind those numbers, and we're doing a tremendous amount through many journeys to try to bring the Oryon CPU that works on the ARM instruction set to this industry," Amon concluded.
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Paul Alcorn is the Managing Editor: News and Emerging Tech for Tom's Hardware US. He also writes news and reviews on CPUs, storage, and enterprise hardware.
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peachpuff 100% in two years is my prediction... wonder how big are the rebates cheques for these oem's to say dumb things like this.Reply -
JamesJones44 If laptops containing these ARM SoCs can be made cheaply I could see it, non-US/EU countries would be likely to snap them up at the right price point. However, at price points we've seen to date, I have a hard time believing 50% is possible in 5 years.Reply -
Madkog It is very much not going to happen. PCs are used completely differently to tablets and phones...Reply
People expect the best CPU for their desktops and laptops. Also with full backward compatibility.
They are dreaming... -
CelicaGT Qualcomm isn't a household name, average PC consumers barely know AMD exists. The average buyer will continue to purchase based on brand and price point, Qualcomm has neither. Businesses will upgrade based on compatibility and price point, Qualcomm has neither. The ONLY way they etch out a piece of the CPU market pie is by coming in cheap and good, something they've never been particularly good at either.Reply -
8086
If they do what I've been saying for years: Add an ARM based PCI-e card (co-processor) for combability with ARM based Windows and Android programs. Think of this is a card similar to a GPU and resides in an X16 slot right next to it. Your OS could run on the ARM card (windows options) while your x86-64 cpu is freed up to run other programs.Madkog said:It is very much not going to happen. PCs are used completely differently to tablets and phones...
People expect the best CPU for their desktops and laptops. Also with full backward compatibility.
They are dreaming... -
hotaru251 he is crazy.Reply
a lot of the market refuses to even update windows and he assumes they can make em not only upgrade but also switch to a new unfamiliar thing?
ARM will take over x86 but its not goign to be nearly as fast as this guy thinks.
ARM wont overtake a majority until most devs back it w/ same level(or more) that they give x86.
More people care about "it just works" than any slight performance gains. -
hotaru251
yes, but ARM based cpus for pc's isnt anything new.Madkog said:PCs are used completely differently to tablets and phones
amd did it long long ago and iirc intel's entire x-scale is arm based (and they had that since early 2000's)
Apple's M series chips are proof of how good ARM cpu's can be in powerful stuff (i can hate apple and admit the product itself is great) beyond just phones and tablets. -
Colif Define OEM... OEM PC/Laptops probably will be but convincing people that make their own PC might take some work.Reply -
KnightShadey
Well Qualcomm does have brand recognition, but it's mainly in telecomm.CelicaGT said:Qualcomm isn't a household name, average PC consumers barely know AMD exists. The average buyer will continue to purchase based on brand and price point, Qualcomm has neither. Businesses will upgrade based on compatibility and price point, Qualcomm has neither. The ONLY way they etch out a piece of the CPU market pie is by coming in cheap and good, something they've never been particularly good at either.
However, that overlaps with mobile computing, which means they aren't a complete unknown to the average person, and the best time to be a new entrant is when everything is in a major upheaval in a marketplace that was stagnant until recently, and whose potential upside potential has expanded dramatically.
The business segment for Ai PCs is still questionable as security & utility evolves. The top use-case of the Enterprise space is already there and buying and churning, but it's the big middle of the business PC market that can see some desire to move from coupke of year old Core i5 running browser apps and Excel, etc. To something with a 'unique feature' to the thin-client segment.
Heck, even the big boys don't know how to market this, they're still advertising video conferencing tweaks and calendar tweaks as the MUST HAVE Ai features?
It's pretty easy to justify/sell ROI for things like FTE changes (ex. content/spec review/generation , RFQ/P/I analysis/prep, etc). That could save enough man hours to justify most Ai PCs multiple times over. Just identifying minimum specs/requirements for proposals let alone writing up how you tick every box used to take weeks for dedicated proposal/marketing teams. This can now be done by a couple of people in a few days (with heavy proof-reading for errors/hallucinations).
Right now is the best time for a company to take a risk to get early adopters in the SMB space & consumer segment, especially for those whose idea of Ai is limited to their Samaung / Google phones, where Qualcomm has brand recognition.
Also, it's more likely the front end of these Ai PCs ie OEM badges (ASUS, DELL, HP, LENOVO) and software (Micro$oft, CRMs, etc) will matter more to most consumers and businesses than if their Ai PC has an AMD, intel, Qc, nV or the myriad of other ARM players in it, AS LONG AS IT CAN DO THE JOB FOR $X per Satisfaction Unit.
Qualcomm's pricing will also improve over time as well, heck the value/perf vs their earlier C series is already taking it from disruptor-only purchases to slightly wider adoption. It's likely to snowball from there.
We've already seen this bifurcation/ un-coupling in mobility outside of the the very top where Exynos vs Snapdragon still maters. But for the mid-range if a Mediatek can get most people more features for less dollars and no additional risk, then that premier chip/IHV holds less value. Of course Apple is the odd-ball exception to this rule especially in N.Am.
It's coming to PCs, just not the high end market which most folks here deal with, vs the volume purchasers (consumer p/busines) who will just want to get a task done, and likely will use aesthetics or ergonomics as their deciding factor instead of CPU/GPU/NPU mfr.
Now is Qualcomm's best time to help push the market beyond the X86 environment, with their depth of experience in ARM eArch they aren't just taking a stab at it like many others, and with M$' obvious support is changing the balance of power with AMD & intel, there is a lot of potential ther for Qualcomm, The only question is if they can convert that potential to significant gains, not just have a great part (like the nV Tegra for example) and then return to the fringes.
It's also hard to say any market swing is impossible considering the large and opposing swings in AMD's fortunes in CPUs vs GPUs and their previous positions. If everything falls into place 50% is quite doable, especially if AMD, intel and nVidia get distracted by the HUGE revenue/profits of the Enterprise segment that makes personal computing a money loser for their engineering focus. -
KnightShadey hotaru251 said:he is crazy.
a lot of the market refuses to even update windows and he assumes they can make em not only upgrade but also switch to a new unfamiliar thing?
ARM will take over x86 but its not goign to be nearly as fast as this guy thinks.
ARM wont overtake a majority until most devs back it w/ same level(or more) that they give x86.
More people care about "it just works" than any slight performance gains.
Even more of the market hasn't turned on their 'PC' in years and have already moved to other devices/platforms. The one are that could bring many of them back for NEW MONEY purchases is a scenario where we can take those new Ai feature you kinda played with via ChatGPT on your phone/tablet or editing your pictures, and showing you how much better it can be on an Ai PC that cost less than your latest high end phone / tablet.
The real money isn't in the current traditional PC users who do know the major players, that's a shrinking, less profitable market being undermined by the huge money in the Enterprise space. The real money/volume is if they can market and sell the idea of people moving back from their phones/tablets to a PC for features that can be boosted on PC.
Granted, I think that that's the WAY overly optimistic view, as I think the low-res/low-quality short-attention-span generation really won't go the PC route, except those already there (like content creators).
Madkog said:
People expect the best CPU for their desktops and laptops. Also with full backward compatibility.
They are dreaming...
Huh? Nah, I doubt that.
WE expect the best CPUs, GPUs, RAM, SSDs, etc... 'people' just want a box that does a task and looks/feels nice doing it for a 'good price'.
Your argument is similar to the audiophiles quoting SACD or DSD now, while the majority and the money is in the plebes buying $50-150 headphones for their MP3s or cheap subscription music (because premium HD audio costs money).
Backwards compatible? For some, but usually for the cheaper consumers who aren't prone to disposable tech. Also, having cross-platform services like 365 and Adobe Cc, etc means the backwards compatible thing can be focused elsewhere too.
The number of apps I have that no longer work in M$ compatibility mode or have been sundowned by Apple & Google is about as many as I currently run.
Subscription services suck for many (especially me) but it has made it easier for people to just ignore compatibility on their hardware end and have the software folks deal with it on their end.
I think most people are arguing the enthusiast market, when much of this will play out in the general public low-mid end, who don't care much under the hood as the logo on the cover, like most Apple users didn't care about intel vs Arm, just as long as it was their brand, and few people cared Google Pixel with Qualcomm or Tensor. As long as it looks/feel OK and is reliable, they likely won't ever know.
That's just my two frames worth, your mileage may vary, 🤷🏻♂️