Potential NAND Shortage Could Mean End of Dirt Cheap SSDs

Samsung
(Image credit: Samsung)

For the past year, SSDs have never been cheaper — with many 1TB SSDs actually costing less than 1TB HDDs. But this era of cheap memory may be coming to an end: controller-manufacturer Phison is signaling that a shortage of materials needed to make NAND chips may be on the horizon, according to a report from Digitimes.

Phison, which makes memory controllers for SSDs (including many or even most PCIe 5.0 SSDs), is prepaying its chip suppliers to ensure it has plenty of NAND chips as the company predicts a shortage. The prepayment itself will presumably bump up the cost for NAND chips, and a shortage absolutely would — likely causing a very significant jump in SSD prices down the line.

The SSD market has seen declining demand ever since the COVID-19 pandemic, but 2023 saw what may be the most rapid drop in SSD prices ever. Production was simply far above demand for too long, and price cuts were the only realistic way to raise demand. Manufacturers have also been decreasing production to reduce supply, but the looming shortage of materials may force supply to further constrict.

But even before considering this potential shortage, we're already seeing the effects of companies clearing out stock and cutting production. SSD prices have been levelling out, and have even been slightly increasing (though some of this could be from retailers getting ready for Black Friday/holiday sales). Many SSDs that became popular for being cheap (like Solidigm's P41 Plus 1TB) are now difficult to find at all — let alone at the super low price points seen in recent months.

It's good news for the manufacturers however, who have been hemorrhaging money while there's been a glut of supply. In May, Phison cautioned that low NAND prices might cause bankruptcies as the largest manufacturers had lost billions of dollars. However, as prices are being pushed up by a lack of supply (as well as potentially increasing demand according to Phison), the NAND crisis seems to be coming to an end.

Matthew Connatser

Matthew Connatser is a freelancing writer for Tom's Hardware US. He writes articles about CPUs, GPUs, SSDs, and computers in general.

  • ThomasKinsley
    I should probably get one. Biggest SSD I've got is only 256GB.
    Reply
  • Order 66
    I'm sure glad I got a 2TB NVMe for my system. I have numerous games, the largest being Jedi survivor at 130GB. If I had gone for a 1TB drive, I would be nearly out of storage by now. Hopefully 2TB will last me through this potential SSD shortage.
    Reply
  • HaninTH
    Would be nice of the pricing (lower) was also reflected in enterprise grade SSDs and in SSDs larger than 4TB.

    But with adapter boards and used server chassis availability, building out TrueNAS repos using 1-2TB m.2 drives should be viable for a while longer.
    Reply
  • Order 66
    There goes my dream of a cheap 8TB NVMe SSD in the near future.
    Reply
  • Amdlova
    I have a optane 280 for system and 3 ssd 1Tb ssd each. But want to get another's two 2tb for storage.
    Reply
  • Amdlova
    Order 66 said:
    There goes my dream of a cheap 8TB NVMe SSD in the near future.
    8tb drivers are insanely priced, but have cheap sata intel 4tb on ebay right now
    Reply
  • Alvar "Miles" Udell
    Interesting how there's now a "shortage of materials" after NAND manufacturers cut production to a fraction of what it was due to "oversupply" in order to drive up prices.
    Reply
  • umeng2002_2
    Wow, what luck. They predict a component shortage just as NAND prices bottomed out... It reminds me of news outlets always running stories of pumpkin pie mix or cranberry or turkey shortages just before Thanksgiving.
    Reply
  • ohio_buckeye
    Kind of convenient to have materials shortages now when prices were getting good.
    Reply
  • t3t4
    Just bought a 2TB Samsung 990 pro last week on Amazon for $99.99 so I can't say I've noticed any price hikes. But "if" prices rise then demand will simply fall until the prices do again. But me personally, I only buy when a thing is on sale and I'm always looking for a deal so I stay up to date on current pricing. My habit makes it very easy to see a fake price hike which typically precedes a good sale event. Wait for the wheel as they say, it will come around again.
    Reply