Atzkern assumes that we will see hard drives with storage capacities of approximately 4 TB at around 2010.
Tom's Hardware Guide: With half a century of hard disk development behind us, what's Seagate's insight for the next 50 years?
Tom's Hardware Guide: Does this mean smaller platters with higher capacity for the future?
Atzkern: Yes! The trend definitely goes towards smaller hard disk drives; yet with a higher storage capacity. For the next ten years we expect a 40% increase in storage capacity thanks to vertical magnetic recording techniques that are refered to as Perpendicular Magnetic Recording (PMR). Seagate's first two-platter laptop hard disk drive Momentus 5400.3 offers a storage capacity of 130 Gbit/sq-in (gigabits per square inch). A perpendicular demonstration in August 2005 already showed potential up to 240 Gbits/in2. Thanks to perpendicular recording we should be able to double the storage capacity every two years. So, in two years you might be able to get a one-inch hard disk drive with 24 GB and a laptop hard disk drive with 320 GB. Seagate wants to double the storage capacity every two years and aims at a 500 Gbits/in2 through perpendicular recording in four to six years.
Using different technologies is absolutely unnecessary at this point. Not only would a change mean higher costs, but we would also need a new production infrastructure. In the future, we will likely introduce technologies like HAMR, Bit Patterned Media or SOMA to increase storage capacity. We want to offer 1.3 Terabyte platters with a storage density of 1000 Gbits/sq-in through the 2012.
Tom's Hardware Guide: So magnetic storage will be the main storage medium! Do you think canmight last another 10, 20 years... or even longer?
Atzkern: Magnetic storage devices will absolutely be the most important storage type. At the moment we believe that perpendicular recording will not exceed a storage density of 500 Gbits/sq.in. An estimated 40% growth in storage density would reach its peak in 2010.
Right now, Seagate is developing a new technology called Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording, which can be compared to what you would refer to as magneto-optical recording (MO). A laser heats up the area that is to be written on until it reaches the Curie temperature point. This procedure makes is a lot easier to store data onto the heated area. It also provides better resistance against the superparamagnetic effect, a phenomenon that causes bits to suddenly and spontaneously loose their magnetic alignment as well as their polarity.