AMD's CPU and GPU Shipments to Reportedly Drop in 2023

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AMD might lose $675 million of sales next year due to recession of client PC sales.

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According to a new report from Northland, the sales of AMD's processors and graphics chips for client PCs may decline significantly next year. The estimate echoes today's story claiming that AMD will reduce orders to TSMC in the coming quarters due to demand concerns. However, the Northland analyst believes sales of game consoles and AMD's SoCs for PlayStation and Xbox systems will grow in 2023.

Sales of AMD's PC CPUs (which include chips for desktops and laptops) will decrease by 6% year-over-year in 2023, whereas GPU revenue will fab by 7% YoY next year, analyst Gus Richard wrote in a note to investors on Friday, reports SeekingAlpha. In total, AMD will lose $675 million of sales in 2023 due to softening demand for client systems. 

Meanwhile, sales of system chips for Microsoft's Xbox Series X|S and Sony's PlayStation 5 will increase by $400 million (up from the previous forecast of $740 million) to around $1.140 billion next year. This number reflects the fact that sales of game consoles usually triple in their third year of lifecycle and 2023 will be their third year.

On the enterprise side of matters, Northland expects sales of AMD's EPYC server CPUs to continue climbing while gaining share. The investment firm estimates AMD's server revenue to increase by 55% yet-over-year (or by $3.1 billion) in 2023. Any impact from other markets will be offset by sales of server parts, the analyst notes. Shipments of Xilinx field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) are also expected to drop by 6%, which is natural for post-merge companies. 

"We scrubbed our AMD numbers and lower our [2023] estimates to comprehend a global economic slowdown that will likely impact PC CPUs, GPUs, game consoles, and XLNX," Richard wrote in a note to clients," wrote Richard.

In general, companies seem to be quite cautious about sales of their client PC hardware due to global inflation, uncertainties caused by the ongoing bloody Russian-Ukrainian war and global geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is not surprising to see an investment firm report like this one. However, nobody knows what the future brings, so one should take predictions with a grain of salt or sugar, depending on whether you are an optimist or pessimist. 

Anton Shilov
Anton Shilov
Contributing Writer

Anton Shilov is a contributing writer at Tom’s Hardware. Over the past couple of decades, he has covered everything from CPUs and GPUs to supercomputers and from modern process technologies and latest fab tools to high-tech industry trends.

22 Comments Comment from the forums
  • logainofhades
    Kind of expected, as the supply had to catch up with the demand, sometime.
    Reply
  • ottonis
    I wonder how this may translate to market share, as a decline in global PC desktop and laptop market will of course not only affect AMD but Intel just as well.
    Most importantly from the perspective of AMD: the growing server market is going to offset all potential losses on the PC market. This is quite significant, as AMD needs all the money they can get in order to invest in R&D and stay competitive on a technological level.
    Reply
  • ohio_buckeye
    Also the other thing is that for a while amd effectively abandoned the low end of the market. The only new cpus they’ve had at the lower end lately have been the ryzen 5 series. Not that a lot of people on Tom’s would purchase those, but when you see reviews of Intel’s new i3 12100, and amd doesn’t seem to have an answer, it’s understandable.

    If I were in that position of building a new pc and push came to shove on the budget, that would definitely be a consideration. If you could save for example 50 dollars there, that could be the price difference of a gtx 1650 and maybe a used rx 5600 or rtx 2060, or other parts. If you look up a guy called the good old gamer on YouTube, he’s got an interesting video on the 12100. It shows that parts that are low end today are better than parts from a few years ago that were the high end.
    Reply
  • Alvar "Miles" Udell
    I'll call it now, RX 7900 for $1999.99, 7700 for $1000, and 7500 for $750.
    Reply
  • Jimbojan
    I am sorry, I cannot see AMD can gain any market share either in server or PC cpu, as Intel is having better product than AMD's. Like Intel's Raptor Lake, Meteor Lake and Sapphire Rapid and next gen are all better than AMD's product in 2023. Besides, Intel's graphic is starting to eat into both NVDA and AMD's market share. I do not see a pretty picture for AMD, I am sorry. From 2023 on, Intel will catch up with TSMC nm design, will be a fab leader again. that is what Intel announced before, Intel will be in the leadership roll starting from 2024, there is nothing AMD can do about it, since it is relying on TSMC.
    Reply
  • helper800
    Jimbojan said:
    I am sorry, I cannot see AMD can gain any market share either in server or PC cpu, as Intel is having better product than AMD's. Like Intel's Raptor Lake, Meteor Lake and Sapphire Rapid and next gen are all better than AMD's product in 2023. Besides, Intel's graphic is starting to eat into both NVDA and AMD's market share. I do not see a pretty picture for AMD, I am sorry. From 2023 on, Intel will catch up with TSMC nm design, will be a fab leader again. that is what Intel announced before, Intel will be in the leadership roll starting from 2024, there is nothing AMD can do about it, since it is relying on TSMC.
    AMDs CPU share has been expanding since Ryzen has released. You are also try to say that intel's future products are better than AMDs future products which is pure speculation, wait for reviews before making wide sweeping generalizations. Intel "eating" into Nvidia's and AMD's graphics market is also nearly comical as their release was a complete flop in China, the only place we have even seen their Arc cards. More speculation but this time on TSMC's part falling behind Intel at an indeterminate point in the future. You should buy all the Intel stock you can if you are so sure in your crystal ball analysis of intel dominating every aspect of the computer world in 1-2 years before their stock goes up from its 5 year decline.
    Reply
  • JarredWaltonGPU
    Alvar Miles Udell said:
    I'll call it now, RX 7900 for $1999.99, 7700 for $1000, and 7500 for $750.
    Nope. What do I get when your prices are completely wrong? 7900 XT, if it's substantially faster (30% or more) than the RX 6950 XT, might be able to sell for $1500. A 7700 XT, even if it's 50% faster than the 6700 XT, won't officially cost more than maybe $600, and will probably still end up at around $500 MSRP. And the RX 7500, when it launches in 18 months, will be a $200-$250 part at most. Also, you missed the RX 7800 XT, which will land around $750, plus or minus $50. That's my guesses at any rate.
    Reply
  • drtweak
    ohio_buckeye said:
    Also the other thing is that for a while amd effectively abandoned the low end of the market. The only new cpus they’ve had at the lower end lately have been the ryzen 5 series. Not that a lot of people on Tom’s would purchase those, but when you see reviews of Intel’s new i3 12100, and amd doesn’t seem to have an answer, it’s understandable.

    If I were in that position of building a new pc and push came to shove on the budget, that would definitely be a consideration. If you could save for example 50 dollars there, that could be the price difference of a gtx 1650 and maybe a used rx 5600 or rtx 2060, or other parts. If you look up a guy called the good old gamer on YouTube, he’s got an interesting video on the 12100. It shows that parts that are low end today are better than parts from a few years ago that were the high end.

    yea sad they don't have a low end ryzen right now. And yea the i3's of today are yesterdays i'7s of only 3-4 years ago. that is also thanks to Ryzen. Without Ryzen we would still probably be on 4 cores 8 threads on i7.
    Reply
  • Not fond of the analysts. I'm looking forward to Zen4 in desktop and I'm definately buying it once there's an APU better than 5600G available. I need to see which mother to buy though B650 or X670 though. With ZEN AMD restored my faith in their products and with APU's they gained a client. Neither nVidia or Intel have anything to compete.
    Reply
  • drtweak
    Jimbojan said:
    I am sorry, I cannot see AMD can gain any market share either in server or PC cpu, as Intel is having better product than AMD's. Like Intel's Raptor Lake, Meteor Lake and Sapphire Rapid and next gen are all better than AMD's product in 2023. Besides, Intel's graphic is starting to eat into both NVDA and AMD's market share. I do not see a pretty picture for AMD, I am sorry. From 2023 on, Intel will catch up with TSMC nm design, will be a fab leader again. that is what Intel announced before, Intel will be in the leadership roll starting from 2024, there is nothing AMD can do about it, since it is relying on TSMC.

    You do realize if it wasn't for Ryzen, Intel would NOT be where it is today. Had AMD not come out with a CPU that finally put it back on the market and is now giving Intel a run for its money.

    Now the thing is what i hate is Intel and AMD don't release at the same time. its like 6 months apart. The thing is the next gen is almost always faster than the other that just release 6 months ago. And honestly to me seeing 5-10% performance increase on intel over AMD or AMD over Intel is just what ever. 90% of users of those PC's will NEVER see that performance difference. Oh I can get 178 frames and I get 185 Frames! Well if you don't have a 240 hz variable refresh rate monitor you are never going to even see that! and ever with 240 i doubt you will see that.

    You don't know the future, I don't know the future. My last 3 CPU's have been AMD. FX 8320, Ryzen 5 3600, and now a 5600X (3600 went to new server). You better hope AMD can keep up because if Intel goes unchecked again you will just have another 14nm+++++ on your hands.
    Reply