US Commerce Secretary: Huawei's Chip Advancements are 'Incredibly Disturbing'

gggplaya said:

In 20 years, it wouldn't be a surprise if China surpasses us in the tech sector.

It's not going to take 20 years. All the Chinese students that studied in American universities for the past 20 years have gone home and taken all their notes with them.

I'll be surprised if it takes another five years.

Growing up in the 80s in a then-communist country, then seeing the transition and following the development etc, it's obvious to me that ex-communist countries - China is different in many ways of course - lack the culture of appreciating individual talents and what they bring to the wider community and its future.

The always not only present but prevalent primitive way of thinking is that economy and wealth is a zero-sum game, a pie, and if one person or group has more that must mean that I, or we, have less. In the old USSR they had an expression - uravnilovka - (leveller?) meaning everyone at the same level. It only partially corresponds to the modesty of northern Europe or the southern European Catholic countries, and mostly means don't work, or especially think, more than is necessary not to be above anyone else.

That kind of culture is dramatically slowing down development. People go to university in a bandwagon kind of mentality, not because they want more, and also just to get the paper - diploma, not the actual knowledge. They want the same as everyone else, and later when they start working, they don't want to stick out, and fully expect someone else - the state - to take care of their career opportunities.

After waiting for decades for some positive change, I'm fully certain change will arrive only when the political elite is dominated by the new generation, AND the voters are majority new generation. So that's at least 10 more years in Central Europe. And obviously communists are still in power in China.

So although Americans for decades already like to promote that "we are somehow threatened by this or that" self reinforcing loop, I'm actually very sceptical that China is now somehow going to develop a creative culture just out of the blue. Just nope. In much the same way it was very obvious to me that Russia's army, although huge, was mostly a toilet paper...kitten, before it became obvious to even the smarter American ex-generals and the sort. The cultural difference is just so significant, and quantity doesn't replace quality.

That all said, Huawei and some other Chinese companies did develop some creative thinking, and that will perhaps be a hub for more creative developments, but not for China as a society or for all other industries.

And as a side note, Northwestern Europe, basically Belgium, Switzerland, Austria and upwards, don't really have youth unemployment, like ever. Kids get their first job usually around 16 or so, those who go to uni are very quickly employed afterwards, noone is getting their first job at 29, that just doesn't exist. For example, in Austria, if you work for 3 years, and then decide to go to uni, the state will subsidize you monthly. In Nordic countries it's similar, precisely because 19yo person can get a well paid job easily.

In Southern and Central Europe industries and general development levels are different though, then around the Mediterranean tourism is just gigantic, more agriculture etc. But engineers of all kinds find employment basically immediately after university everywhere in Europe, and programmers and IT specialists even during uni, which often makes it difficult for them to actually finish it.

There is a limit to what all these export controls can do. Against a big economy, it only delays the inevitable. Furthermore, they cannot limit talents in this field to work for Chinese tech companies. And I am pretty sure they are gaining expertise by aggressively hiring and training locals up.

Please keep the off topic political posts out of this discussion or they will be removed and warnings / bans will be issued. They will be removed regardless of which side you are on. There are plenty of other places to discuss such matters.

gggplaya said:

Chinese College entrance is insanely competitive. Parents make their children study and do homework all day and night. Their engineers are getting better and better.

Meanwhile, our schools are relaxing educational standards. Our children are getting lazier and lazier. They would rather stay home and be unemployed, than work in a job that's not socially relevant(a job they can brag to people for having). When I was young, you took whatever job payed the bills and you moved to a better job when you could. Today's youth, if they can't get the job they wanted, they just give up.

In 20 years, it wouldn't be a surprise if China surpasses us in the tech sector.

Chinese College entrance is insanely competitive. Parents make their children study and do homework all day and night. Their engineers are getting better and better.

Was it not that way here in the US many years ago 50 -70 years ago?
It was found to be discriminating so we lowered our standards to make it a level playing field.
The US Military, among others, are on that same 'slippery slope' to make it a level playing field.
"Be All You Can Be"?

I'm not so sure the results are yielding their expectations for all institutions taking that route.