The death of Windows 10 ignites PC market rebound — market projected to be up 5% this year, 8% in 2025

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The trajectory is expected to hit 8% in 2025, with 75 million units.

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(Image credit: Getty Images)

IT industry analytics company Canalys has published its latest set of data and projections on United States PC shipments, with data showing an expected 5% growth to 69 million units throughout the remainder of 2024, and the expectation of 78 million units, or an 8% improvement, shipped by 2025.

From the available metrics and in the eyes of market experts, then, it seems like the US PC market is slated for a steady, healthy recovery over the course of the next year and a half, a move expected to be spurred by new AMD and Intel releases right around the corner. Qualcomm's recently released Snapdragon X PC processors may also be making waves.

Canalys analysis chart on US PC market and recovery forecast. (Image credit: Canalys)

Greg Davis, an analyst at Canalys, said "Continued discounting after the holiday season boosted consumer demand for PCs into the start of 2024. However, the first quarter also saw an uptick in commercial sector performance. Shipment growth in small and medium businesses indicates that the anticipated refresh brought by the Windows 10 end-of-life is underway. With enterprise customers set to follow suit, the near-term outlook for the market remains highly positive."

So, this surge in the market isn't purely because new hardware is being released — it's also that existing software will soon be dropped out of support entirely. Windows users too stubborn to make the Windows 11 upgrade, or locked away entirely by the lack of the hardware TPM 2.0 module, are more likely buying a new PC just to have a working PC, not necessarily because they're salivating at the prospect of paying for an NPU.

As Davis continues, "This timing also coincides with greater availability of on-device AI capabilities in the market, with new products and user experiences set to excite consumers and businesses across both the Windows and Apple ecosystems. The US is forecasted to be a leader in the adoption of AI-capable PCs as vendors and their partners prioritize [...] efforts to capitalize on the significant opportunity to upgrade customers to premium devices." 

So, despite the vocal resistance to AI across most sectors of art, entertainment, and journalism, it would seem that the sales numbers say otherwise. Or, at least, that the sales numbers allow analysts and members of the industry to say otherwise. Surely these AI PCs are selling so well because they're a new category and not just a semi-mandatory upgrade for operating system compatibility, right?

Christopher Harper
Christopher Harper
Contributing Writer

Christopher Harper has been a successful freelance tech writer specializing in PC hardware and gaming since 2015, and ghostwrote for various B2B clients in High School before that. Outside of work, Christopher is best known to friends and rivals as an active competitive player in various eSports (particularly fighting games and arena shooters) and a purveyor of music ranging from Jimi Hendrix to Killer Mike to the Sonic Adventure 2 soundtrack.

2 Comments Comment from the forums
  • ThomasKinsley
    Windows users too stubborn to make the Windows 11 upgrade, or locked away entirely by the lack of the hardware TPM 2.0 module, are more likely buying a new PC just to have a working PC, not necessarily because they're salivating at the prospect of paying for an NPU.
    This is it. I know people who need a new pc. One has an aging 1st gen i7 that died a few years back and they were hobbling along on a half-baked 4th gen i5. They tend to prefer prebuilts, but prebuilts only do W11. They might end up using it or going custom. Jury's out.
    Reply
  • FunSurfer
    Advice for people owning Intel 10th Gen or 11th that supposed to support Window 11 but getting the massage that their PC doesn't support the OS:
    There are setting in the bios (that has to be UEFI) that can be turned on in order to support Windows 11.
    In each motherboard the settings are different so it is very important to check the internet for information about which settings to change or to turn on (should be about 3-4) and their location because messing with the wrong settings in the bios may break your PC.
    If these settings or some of them are not present, bios update is necessary.
    If after the bios update the setting "trusted computing" is still missing, a hardware TPM module is needed. This should cost about $20 not including shipment, but it is cheaper that a whole PC.
    The user need to check the motherboard model and the pins layout of the connector BEFORE buying the TPM module and to verify that the module is TPM 2.0 and not an older version.
    After installing the module the missing setting in the bios should appear after restart and the TPM full installation will take several restarts. The user need to wait few minutes between restarts to check that the red storage led is mostly off so the PC is finished doing the stuff it does after it is turned on.
    Reply