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We Could Run Out of Hard Drives Soon, Says Analyst

By - Source: Cnet | B 73 comments

The ongoing shortage of hard disk drive supply is expected to worsen and peak in early 2012, analysts expect.

Gus Richard from Piper Jaffray told Cnet that "we could run out of drives by the end of November."

Caused by the dramatic flooding in Thailand, hard drive prices have already shot up by 10 to 60 percent, but Richard is concerned that PC manufacturers especially are not taking enough precaution to deal with the shortage.

"Nobody seems to be really paying attention. Everyone overreacted to the disaster in Japan. And now I think they're underreacting," he told Cnet. The estimate is that supply will fall about 60 million units short of a demand of 180 million drives and PC manufacturers will not be not able to meet demand with the units they can produce.

However, while Richard believes that shipments could drop by 5 to 10 million units because of the shortage, the supply problem is likely to spill over into Q1 2012 and affect 10 to 20 million units. In Q1, the expected shortage may be between 60 to 80 million units as lack of supply in Q4 is carried over into the new year.

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Top Comments
  • 28 Hide
    darthvidor , November 10, 2011 12:06 AM
    This would be the start of the death of the spinning HDD's when its price reach SSD-like.
  • 26 Hide
    gladiator_mohaa , November 10, 2011 12:25 AM
    WD Cav Black drives went from 90 for a 1tb to 219! That's way more the a 100 percent!
  • 26 Hide
    sceen311 , November 10, 2011 12:24 AM
    I was pissed when the harddrive I bought for $80's dropped to $65... now I'm not so pissed.
Other Comments
  • 28 Hide
    darthvidor , November 10, 2011 12:06 AM
    This would be the start of the death of the spinning HDD's when its price reach SSD-like.
  • 26 Hide
    joytech22 , November 10, 2011 12:13 AM
    Hard drive prices here have gone from $90 for a 2TB drive to $160.
  • 24 Hide
    ben850 , November 10, 2011 12:16 AM
    Sucks. Maybe the SSD market will accelerate even faster now like darth mentioned.
  • 14 Hide
    AbdullahG , November 10, 2011 12:24 AM
    Well that sucks. Maybe SSDs will drop in price? Nah, they won't. Only time will tell.
  • 26 Hide
    sceen311 , November 10, 2011 12:24 AM
    I was pissed when the harddrive I bought for $80's dropped to $65... now I'm not so pissed.
  • 26 Hide
    gladiator_mohaa , November 10, 2011 12:25 AM
    WD Cav Black drives went from 90 for a 1tb to 219! That's way more the a 100 percent!
  • 20 Hide
    acadia11 , November 10, 2011 12:30 AM
    Guess who ain't buying a drive anytime soon, this guy!
  • 22 Hide
    alidan , November 10, 2011 12:33 AM
    if there was a hdd maker not in tailand, they could have laughed all the way to the bank
  • -9 Hide
    alidan , November 10, 2011 12:52 AM
    anyone else kind of hopeing for hdds to go way WAY up in price?

    i mean i was thinking of getting 2 2tb drives, and having one back up the other, but if hdds go away completely... i may have to stock up on them and than ebay.
  • 9 Hide
    iam2thecrowe , November 10, 2011 12:52 AM
    are all hard drives 100% produced in thailand? or only parts of them? Are there any HDD's not made there that are unaffected?
  • -1 Hide
    zanny , November 10, 2011 12:52 AM
    I'm planning on doing a build when Ivy Bridge comes out next year, but it looks like I'm going to end up using my 8 year old 2/3 TB drive a little longer.

    This shortage will drive up demand across the board for disks, so SSDs shouldn't drop at all for a while, because they will start filling the void of cheap storage without low price per gigabyte hard disks. Nobody really wins because WD and friends would have made more money with 50% more drives sold at the old prices than they will at the inflated prices.
  • 8 Hide
    Anonymous , November 10, 2011 12:57 AM
    This is going to be an interesting System Builder if hard drive prices remain around the same.
  • 3 Hide
    cumi2k4 , November 10, 2011 1:00 AM
    so by mid 2012 the price will come down again? i was planning to build a htpc in early 2012, but i guess waiting a few month is acceptable for me...
  • 8 Hide
    tomfreak , November 10, 2011 1:07 AM
    there is an 8yr old 2-3TB HDD?
  • 12 Hide
    beayn , November 10, 2011 1:18 AM
    10 to 60% That must be in the USA. Here in Canada I'm looking at a WD Caviar Black 2TB that I bought a few months back for $129, now on for $299. That's over 130%. Most 500gb drives that were 49 bucks are now $99

  • 14 Hide
    beayn , November 10, 2011 1:20 AM
    Correction, I just checked again and the 2TB Caviar Black is now $399. That's a 210% increase.
  • 4 Hide
    gulmat , November 10, 2011 1:22 AM
    Tomfreakthere is an 8yr old 2-3TB HDD?

    I think he was saying 2/3 as in 750GB, would make a bit more sense imo.
  • 3 Hide
    Thunderfox , November 10, 2011 1:22 AM
    As long as they get their act together by the time Ivy Bridge comes out, I don't care too much. I'll need a drive for a new machine at that point though.
  • 3 Hide
    buzznut , November 10, 2011 1:23 AM
    gladiator_mohaaWD Cav Black drives went from 90 for a 1tb to 219! That's way more the a 100 percent!


    I see drives every day on newegg that are 3 times as much as they were a month ago. That's not 60%, that is 300% increase in price.

    In particular, I'm talking about drives that were low end anyway, 500GB or less. The larger drives (1.5TB and up) are the wisest investment right now, although I won't be buying any until this all works out.
    A 3TB drive was $200, now it is $300. That's a 50% increase, in case anyone is wondering..
    :|
  • 1 Hide
    cheepstuff , November 10, 2011 1:26 AM
    iam2thecroweare all hard drives 100% produced in thailand? or only parts of them? Are there any HDD's not made there that are unaffected?


    Plenty of hard drives are not produced in Thailand, but they are still effected. The ones still produced are members of a smaller supply. The only way to stop a true shortage is to increase the price, therefore all the HDD are now more expensive.
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