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GPU Shipments May Drop by 50%, Nvidia Braces for Long Winter

Gaming monitor
(Image credit: Shutterstock)

Intel, AMD, and Nvidia have all revised their shipment and revenue projections for this year — with revenue estimations plummeting for Intel and Nvidia, according to DigiTimes. Graphics card shipments are also expected to drop by up to 50% thanks to the recent cryptocurrency crash.

Intel expects to suffer a reduction of between $8 and $11 billion in revenue, and has dropped its revenue goal to $65 - $68 billion. The company also estimates a 10% drop in PC sales (compared to 2021). This isn't that surprising — the COVID pandemic artificially boosted demand for computer products in 2021. 

Nvidia also expects to take a big hit, thanks to both the post-pandemic drop in demand and the major cryptocurrency crash earlier this year. Taiwanese graphics card suppliers estimate their 2022 shipments will fall by between 40 - 50%, and sources cited by Digitimes say this will cause Nvidia's revenue to fall "at a pace beyond imagination." 

Nvidia is also taking a big hit, thanks to this issue as well as the major cryptocurrency crash this year. As a result, Taiwanese graphics card suppliers have estimated their 2022 shipments will fall by around 40 - 50%. Sources say this will kill Nvidia's revenue throughout the whole year with an estimated fall "beyond imagination". Nvidia's preliminary Q2 revenue report, released earlier this week, showed a significantly worse quarter than projected.  

The decline in demand for consumer tech is now affecting demand for less-important chip component manufacturers making display ICs, panels, and more. One such company, notebook MCU and touchscreen controller manufacturer Elan Microelectronics, expects a revenue drop of 30% this quarter. 

Chromebook shipments are also expected to take a 50 - 60% hit in volume. Vendors such as Lenovo and HP both expect a 50 - 60% decline in shipments for their particular Chromebook models. Windows notebook and PC sales are expected to drop by 10% and 15%, respectively, throughout the year. Asus, Dell, Acer, and HP are all having difficulty driving higher sales in the gaming and commercial notebook sectors. 

AMD and Apple Are Doing Well 

While other manufacturers are struggling to keep sales up, AMD and Apple have somehow managed to circumvent these otherwise industry-wide problems.

AMD has seen massive growth: the company's Q2 revenue increased by 70%, thanks to market share gains "stolen" from Intel in data center CPUs and embedded processor growth. (The acquisition of Xilinx has also helped AMD gain more market share revenue.)

But AMD has increased its expectations for shipment losses from 7 - 9% to 14 - 16%. That said, AMD still expects its Q3 revenues to see a slight increase overall. 

AMD's growth is largely thanks to Intel losing overall market share, according to Digitimes' report. Intel still dominates almost 80% of the market, but lost a ton of orders from Apple when the latter became its own CPU supplier (with the M1 and M2 ARM chips). AMD's rapid expansion in the data center, as well as its revenue stream from Xilinx (which has enabled AMD to circumvent a lot of supply chain issues in 2022), have also contributed to Intel's troubles. 

Apple has also been seeing incredible growth on the Macbook side — with a record-breaking 28 million units estimated to be sold in 2022.

Aaron Klotz
Freelance News Writer

Aaron Klotz is a freelance writer for Tom’s Hardware US, covering news topics related to computer hardware such as CPUs, and graphics cards.

  • thisisaname
    Odd shipment is going to be down and OEM have so many sitting in their warehouses?
    Reply
  • ThatMouse
    I don't think anyone is shedding any tears for Nvidia. They made eBay sellers a lot of money though. Get ready for some expensive 4080's this Christmas.
    Reply
  • Phaaze88
    Article is giving me deja vu...


    "Sources say this will kill Nvidia's revenue throughout the whole year with an estimated fall "beyond imagination".
    The growth leading up to this was also 'beyond imagination'...
    Balance was restored to The Force..?
    Reply
  • Silicone
    ThatMouse said:
    I don't think anyone is shedding any tears for Nvidia. They made eBay sellers a lot of money though. Get ready for some expensive 4080's this Christmas.
    All dry here and loving it. Nvidia COULD have done the right thing when all the consumers were looking for vid cards and paying through the arse for them and maybe curtailed the crypto miners. How many cards did they sell to miners and in fact caused the shortage to consumers and OEM manufacturers? They got caught doing it and took a 5.5 mil fine from it which is a p hole in the snow. Nvidia is currently dead to me, there is NOTHING that would convince me to help them out of their current predicament. This story was the end of anything Nvidia for me.
    "Jaxson Davidson on Twitter shows a fourth of his mining factory, hundreds of RTX 3070 FE graphics cards shown and sold "under the table"

    FU Nvidia.
    Reply
  • spongiemaster
    While other manufacturers are struggling to keep sales up, AMD and Apple have somehow managed to circumvent these otherwise industry-wide problems.

    AMD has seen almost an identical dGPU sales percentage drop as Nvidia over the past 2 quarters. AMD is down 41%, Nvidia is down 40%. They haven't circumvented anything in the markets that they directly compete with Nvidia. AMD hid those losses with console APU's. This isn't a secret. AMD said it in their q2 quarterly report.
    Reply
  • 2+2
    Phaaze88 said:
    Article is giving me deja vu...


    "Sources say this will kill Nvidia's revenue throughout the whole year with an estimated fall "beyond imagination".
    The growth leading up to this was also 'beyond imagination'...
    Balance was restored to The Force..?
    If you think the Cypro Crash bad for Nvidia's revenue,
    wait till China blockades Taiwan.

    The West will learn the meaning of CRASH.
    Reply
  • watzupken
    Just to be clear, when they say drop by 50%, when are they comparing against? If they are referring to any time during the crypto boom, then 50% decline is very optimistic. The reason why I say this is because, miners buys a lot of GPUs. Even a small time miner I know buys anything from 6 to 8 GPUs during the acute shortage period. Gamer generally buys 1, at most 2 GPUs, and not all gamers will buy a new GPU when it gets released. And I don't believe there are less miners than gamers since it was an opportunity to make money by just letting the PC run. So with these considerations in mind, I don't believe 50% decline is realistic. If it is back to the norm, i.e. no miners buying GPU, I think Nvidia may have like 30% of the kind of sales they got during the mining boom as my best case scenario.
    Reply