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ARM to Challenge Intel's Dominance in Notebooks

By - Source: IHS | B 23 comments

Market research firm IHS believes that Intel's 30-year processor dominance in notebooks may get serious competition from ARM.

By 2015, ARM will have captured a notebook share of 23%, IHS predicts.

“Starting in 1981, when IBM first created its original PC based on Intel’s 8088 microprocessor, the X86 architecture has dominated the PC market,” said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst of compute platforms for IHS. “Over the next generation, billions of PCs were shipped based on X86 microprocessors supplied by Intel and assorted rivals - mainly AMD. However, the days of X86’s unchallenged domination are coming to an end as Windows 8 opens the door for the use of the ARM processor, which already has achieved enormous popularity in the mobile phone and tablet worlds.”

By 2015, ARM notebook shipments will hit 74 million units, up from an estimated 7.6 million in 2012, according to IHS. Windows 8 is predicted to be the major driver of ARM notebook sales. Microsoft announced last January that Windows 8 will also be running on ARM systems. IHS believes that ARM will be most successful in the value notebook space and devices that cost less than $700. ARM chip suppliers will include Nvidia, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments.

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  • 18 Hide
    Anonymous , July 21, 2011 2:00 AM
    Till then AMD LLano APU will dominate the entry-level or midrange (
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  • 18 Hide
    Anonymous , July 21, 2011 2:00 AM
    Till then AMD LLano APU will dominate the entry-level or midrange (
  • 1 Hide
    Tyler-767 , July 21, 2011 2:39 AM
    I don't think ARM will have much of an effect on Intel's market share. I think ARM will be taking its piece of the pie from AMD. ARM is going into AMD's territory with low price "best bang for the buck" segments. If bulldozer cant compete with a high end ivy bridge chip, ARM will eat away at entry level AMD just as Intel's graphics cores are eating away at entry level Nvidia.
  • 7 Hide
    bustapr , July 21, 2011 3:00 AM
    I think that by the end of 2012 AMD will have eaten up quite a big part of intels share with its llano platform. Its already getting alot of attention and notebook makers will be stupid to not see the profits in llano. I really cant see ARM doing anything yet since theyre practically invisible outside the mobile market. We cant make any predictions on ARM yet. And even if they fair well against intel CPUs, the llano platform is too much for its competitors to compete with in the low-mid range market.
  • 1 Hide
    JAYDEEJOHN , July 21, 2011 3:06 AM
    Whats going to give the gfx power here? Intel?
  • -5 Hide
    techseven , July 21, 2011 3:08 AM
    Wow this is so interesting that I have decided to go to bed right away...
  • 0 Hide
    burnley14 , July 21, 2011 4:18 AM
    I'm all for it since it will certainly bring costs down. Intel is now pushing a CPU performance envelope that doesn't really need to expand. Greater GPU power is the future of the mobile market, CPU's are powerful enough to do just about anything as-is. Perhaps Intel's days are numbered. . .
  • 4 Hide
    eddieroolz , July 21, 2011 6:41 AM
    Maybe we'll have a stiff three-way competition in the lower range where all three companies have introduced low-power, thin-profile processors.

    As for ARM's ability to compete in the mid/high-range segment, that's still an unknown factor.

    Let's just hope that benchmarks won't artificially cap ARM CPU's performance like it does with AMD.
  • 0 Hide
    henydiah , July 21, 2011 8:26 AM
    wow cool
  • 5 Hide
    fyasko , July 21, 2011 10:02 AM
    by 2015 will we have flying cars? will lady gaga turn back into michael jackson?
  • 0 Hide
    back_by_demand , July 21, 2011 11:12 AM
    Not entirely surprising, the performance of chips is increasing faster than the amount of resources required to run software.

    With the exception of games where graphical requirements has become a nuclear arms race, ordinary software certainly doesn't follow the Moore's Law, so we have got to the point where entry level products are now capable of running what used to be fairly hefty programs.

    The only way Intel is going to wrestle this back is if they can influence software vendors to bloat up their new releases year on year to match their new CPUs.

    Won't happen, so then Intel has to convince us to buy their products on the same playing field as everyone else and charge less money.
  • 0 Hide
    archange , July 21, 2011 12:12 PM
    Well, it certainly looks interesting, at least from the power consumption perspective. Sure, ARM processors need to get beefier which will in turn drive power consumption higher (think multiple cores), but let's not forget that they need also undergo successive die shrinks.

    We've come to expect reasonable performance and day-long battery life.
  • 1 Hide
    vaughn2k , July 21, 2011 12:23 PM
    By 2015, AMD will have an ARM based APU.
  • 1 Hide
    Computerrock1 , July 21, 2011 12:38 PM
    Hooray for competition, its what drives all technology forward!
  • -3 Hide
    BSMonitor , July 21, 2011 12:41 PM
    This is just another example of a independent research firm with NO technical knowledge spouting off. Windows 8 supports ARM because Microsoft tablets will run a version of Windows 8. And currently ARM is the only tablet CPU in the market.

    Anyone who thinks this will supplant any kind of real x86 market share is simply talking out of their ass. ARM chips are woefully under-powered compared to a an x86 CPU. Throw in the fact that NO software for PC's is being written for the ARM arch. So, woefully under-powered CPU emulating x86 software. I don't think so.
  • 2 Hide
    ivu , July 21, 2011 12:47 PM
    Bulldozer shows (even on pre tests) incredible strength against EVEN Intels high-end Cpus, and all graphics segments turned to Ati-AMDs side... Arm is just a bitter try form Nvidia and Qualcomm and TI alliance.

    Watch next year from AMD how they compete... time for change lads.
  • 0 Hide
    tmk221 , July 21, 2011 2:25 PM
    otacon72Llano benchmarks are horrid. i3 plus an entry level discrete GPU will blow Llano out of the water. Llano might work well in W8 tablets but that's about it.

    you are right, but Llano costs as much or less then core i3 so you cannot create entry level prieced notebook with i3+discrete graphics card...
  • 0 Hide
    Anonymous , July 21, 2011 2:27 PM
    I'm not so sure that ARM will end up being as much of a challenger to x86 as some are predicting. The main problem with ARM going up against x86 is that even though Windows 8 will have ARM support, most programs are still written for x86 Windows and would have to be recompiled at the least if not rewritten for a new processor architecture. The exceptions would of course be stuff that runs on java or .net
  • 1 Hide
    sykozis , July 21, 2011 4:31 PM
    Considering the fact that ARM is mostly unknown outside of tech circles, don't expect to see Intel loose in such a short amount of time. Given a choice between an Intel (who advertises very aggressively) based system, an AMD (who's advertisements are limited to stickers and ads on tech sites and magazines) and ARM (who is completely unknown to the average consumer, most "average consumers" are going to go with Intel due to familiarity with the brand. Given that nVidia's reputation and brand has been associated almost exclusively with graphics cards, most consumers are going to be leary of adopting a processor with their name stamped on it. Support has always, and will always be the biggest driving force. Until ARM has had processors in the consumer computing space for a while and has proven their products to have the same level of support as Intel products, most consumers aren't going to migrate. This is the same reason most "average consumers" are reluctant to migrate to 64bit....
  • -2 Hide
    Tycho2 , July 21, 2011 5:06 PM
    Heaps of people are saying this will not happen in 4 years because arm processors are low power, now. That's now, and in the past. Arm processor are developing quickly it should only be a matter of time till they catch up (and overtake?) Intel considering how terrible x86 is as an architecture. x86 has to die sooner or later. Frankly the sooner the better.
  • 0 Hide
    jacobdrj , July 21, 2011 5:15 PM
    The reason why netbooks were popular was because they were portable, had good battery life, and could run x86 Windows applications. The netbooks that were portable, had good battery life, but ran x86 Linux applications were returned to the stores in droves...

    Unless you have a way to run your favorite programs, that you already paid/have licenses for, your platform will likely not be successful.

    MacBooks took off when they 1st established their name with the popular iPod and iTunes, and 2nd, started using x86 compatible Intel processors. Once, 3rd, bootcamp 'happened', there was nothing holding users from caving to the marketing hype, and being able to have the 'best of both worlds' (sans cost).

    Unless there is some kind of superior emulation, or some serious recompiling of existing software for ARM, without cost to the users, ARM will not take off.

    However, if the OS using ARM is an extension of the Android/iOS platform, and the users are able to use the same apps they already paid for on their phones with their notebooks, this may succeed.
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