DRAMeXchange's senior research director Avril Wu reported today that it's highly possible for DRAM products to see a five percent price decline in the last quarter of the year due to oversupply and weak demand.
DRAM products have enjoyed steady growth for nine consecutive quarters until the third quarter of 2018, when the market began to show weak price growth. PC and server DRAM products prices grew barely, in the range of one to two percent, while mobile DRAM prices stayed flat. Meanwhile, graphics DRAM products faced a price drop during the same quarter. Avril Wu noted that the current spot prices are 10 percent lower than contract prices, which is a very good indicator that there will be a general decline in DRAM prices.
| Item | 3Q18 | 4Q18(Prior Version) | 4Q18(Revised Version) |
| PC DRAM | 1~2 percent | -4 percent~Flat | ~-5 percent |
| Server DRAM | ~1 percent | -2 percent~Flat | ~-5 percent |
| Mobile DRAM | Discrete: FlateMCP: -3 percent~Flat | Discrete: -2 percent~FlateMCP: -2~-5 percent | Discrete: -2~-5 percenteMCP: -3~-8 percent |
| Consumer DRAM | DDR3: -2 percentDDR4: Flat | DDR3: -3 percent~FlatDDR4: -1~-4 percent | DDR3: ~-3 percentDDR4: ~-5 percent |
| DRAM ASP | >3 percent | -1~-3 percent | ~-5 percent |
Source: DRAMeXchange, Sep. 2018
The revised forecast from DRAMeXchange shows that the server DRAM and PC DRAM markets could suffer a price drop as great as five percent. The demand in the server space is uncertain, and since the spot prices for DRAM products continue to descend, Korean DRAM manufacturers have adjusted their target prices for the upcoming quarter. Samsung has even gone as far as to slow down its memory chip production with the purpose of keeping prices stable. Meanwhile, the shortage of Intel processors might potentially help lower demand for DRAM products in PCs and notebooks. As for specialized DRAM products, demand has gotten weak and seen price declines since September because of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
On the mobile end, the launch of the new Apple iPhone is expected to help boost demand for mobile DRAM products. Nevertheless, the market tends to take a conservative approach when it comes to smartphone sales since iPhones are notorious for carrying eye-watering price tags. As a result, DRAMeXchange states that there is a high possibility for oversupply.
