We had the opportunity to talk to Sony Optiarc's European marketing director Ralf Wolf during this week's Computex show in Taipei, and the meeting revealed some interesting insight into the current state of the ODD business as well as upcoming Blu-ray developments. Clearly, the crisis hit hard on Sony Optiarc and other players on the optical market, but the firm perceives the crisis as a chance to purge this overly competitive market. Times in which market share stands above profit seem to be over. Sony seems to share this belief, as it took over NEC's 45% share in September of 2008, making the joint venture a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sony.
Blu-ray Technology Roadmap
"From a technology standpoint, Blu-ray is not a big deal anymore", Wolf said. The technology is considered fully mature by now, as all upcoming improvements are laid out in the latest specification. "We will of course see speed bumps like we it was the case with DVD technology a few years ago". In addition to that, many users probably wonder about future capacity options: Blu-ray technology is currently available with single and dual layers, each storing 25 GB (23.3 GiB). Future Blu-ray products can be based on three or four platters, effectively doubling the capacity. Up to six layers are technically feasible on Blu-ray.
What's Next? Maneuvring During the Crisis
Wolf said that the crisis hit the ODD business very early and very hard, as a large amount of drive orders was cancelled in late 2008. Part orders by Sony Optiarc and others were effectively almost cancelled and "it wasn't until early 2009 that momentum returned." In the next step, the incoming orders exceeded the remaining production capacities, which then created a shortage. And since the crisis is not over yet, demand comes and goes in unpredictable waves. "Only those who can manage these waves of tide and flood in market demand and handle part orders as well as inventory efficiently will do a good job in maneuvering during this heavy crisis." wolf smiled.
Sony Optiarc is confident to see a stronger second half of 2009, also because of the next product generation that is coming up: "Expect to see more and more notebooks with built-in Blu-ray burners". Initially, BD recorders will add at least $150 to a notebook's retail price, but since BD recorders are one of the few differentiation features for notebook vendors, we expect a quick adoption in the upper mainstream and high end segments.
