The DRAM market is flashing mixed signals as 2025 enters its final stretch. According to findings published by Digitimes, DDR4 spot prices have stabilized after a frenzied second quarter, yet contract pricing continues to rise as supply remains tight.
DDR4 rebounds, DDR5 weakens
DRAM spot market industry data compiled by Digitimes shows that DDR4 16GB (2Gx8) parts increased by nearly 7% in August after a slow July, pushing prices to $9.17 per chip. DDR5 (2Gx8) 16GB slid 3% to $5.99, widening the gap between generations to almost 50%. DDR4 8GB (1Gx8) continued its decline, while DDR3 (512Mx8) surged again, extending July’s 20% rally with a further 13% jump as Samsung’s 2024 production exit and limited output from Taiwanese firms triggered panic buying.
This might look like a simple supply squeeze on the surface, but a closer look reveals that top suppliers like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are all winding down DDR4 production to free up space for DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), both of which serve the booming AI accelerator market. This pivot has left DDR4 users footing the bill for engineered scarcity.
An AI tax on legacy hardware
This pricing surge is more about supply being deliberately throttled than demand suddenly spiking. Larger fabs are prioritizing HBM, which is far more profitable due to its applications in GPUs and AI inference.
Every wafer shifted to feed Nvidia’s H100s or AMD’s Instinct accelerators cuts into supply for DDR4. That deliberate reallocation throttles supply, which in turn forces system builders and distributors to stockpile what’s left.
The result is a market inversion whereby DDR4 now costs comparatively more than DDR5, despite being an older, slower legacy technology. In effect, mainstream builders are subsidizing the AI boom, shouldering higher costs on legacy parts because memory makers know they can extract maximum profit before pulling the plug.
Contract prices still heading higher
Despite spot market fatigue, analysts expect contract pricing to climb through year-end. Adata Technology, according to the same Digitimes research, projects DDR4 demand will rebound in September once inventory digestion finishes, while NAND flash prices should remain firm as capacity expands cautiously.
That means DDR4 buyers shouldn’t expect relief: limited fab allocation ensures contract prices will trend higher into Q4. For anyone maintaining an AM4 or 12th/13th Gen Intel build, it may make sense to grab DDR4 now if a capacity upgrade is critical. But for newer systems, DDR5 offers better price-to-performance and will remain the only viable platform going forward.
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