Analysis: Intel, AMD on a more predictable pace
Correlation between price and performance fell across the board this week. Despite price shifts for some processors back to the level we saw in October, when the correlation was in the 0.9 level, the correlation fell 3.2% week-to-week, where it stands now at 0.864, compared to last week's 0.892. This is because of the price increases for the 4400+ and the 3800+, along with the lack of corresponding price shifts among the other processors.
For Intel, correlation dropped as well to the lowest we've recorded over the past two months. When we include overclocked processor data, the correlation is 0.576, a 1.2% drop from last week's 0.583. It's worth noting again that we include overclocked data to provide the relevant information for enthusiasts who want to see the level of performance for the price on processors with well-documented overclocked capabilities.
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Without the overclocked versions of the processors included, the correlation for Intel is 0.628, also a new record low for our weekly articles, and a 1.6% fall from last week's 0.639. Also, because of the big price drops for AMD, its dominance in the lower-end market rose a bit this week, providing, on average, the best bang for the buck up to about 1.7 on our relative performance scale.
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Once again, when we separate the Intel data into Pentium D and Core 2 groups, we can see where the overall correlation comes from. The Core 2 side of things is actually quite decent, with a correlation of 0.935. The Pentium D processors, on the other hand, are more scattered than we've seen in the past eight weeks, netting a correlation of 0.779. Last week, it was closer to 0.79. We're still in the flux of brand new entrants from both Intel and AMD, and pricing of current stock of older products is adjusting to the appropriate levels of consumer demand for the new models.
Looking ahead, Intel is entering a phase of a more stable product line-up than we have seen over the past six months. Most of the portfolio is set and won't change until the introduction of 45 nm processors at the end of 2007. The only noteworthy introduction will be a mainstream quad-core processor with Kentsfield core. The Core 2 Quad Q6600 will be launched with a clock speed of 2.4 GHz in Q1 2007. Quad-cores (Q6600, QX6700) with more clock speed could become available in Q3, but our sources weren't able to confirm such processors at this time.
As previously reported, AMD is gearing up for a 65 nm release of X2 processors, which however will not bring higher performances initially. The firm's roadmap has listed a bunch of faster X2 processors which apparently are delayed: X2 5400+ and 5600+ versions were scheduled originally for a November launch. A 6000+ version is listed for a December introduction. When available, these processors may enable AMD to regain a position in the $400+ segment of processors. The highly anticipated quad-cores will not be available until mid-2007.
