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Google to Surpass Microsoft in OS Penetration by 2016

By - Source: Gartner | B 18 comments

According to the market research firm, Google will be able to increase the number of Android devices in the market from 608 million today to 2.3 billion computers, tablets and smartphones by the end of 2016.

In comparison, Windows devices are projected to grow from 1.5 billion to only 2.28 billion units, Gartner said.

The firm believes that the mobile market in particular will continue to consolidate around Android and iOS, "with other ecosystems struggling to gain traction, and, with most vendors committed to Android." By the end of 2014, three of the five top mobile handset vendors will be Chinese, Gartner said.

In the tablet market, unit shipments are estimated to be about half of the volume of notebooks by 2015, while Windows 8 is not expected to trump either iOS or Android in tablet volume and has to be content with third place.

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  • 12 Hide
    sykozis , October 25, 2012 12:32 AM
    There are no Android computers....and ChromeOS has yet to get any traction at all.... The mobile market, being considerably larger than the PC market, it makes sense that Google would have more devices running "their" OS...
Other Comments
  • 2 Hide
    vern72 , October 25, 2012 12:06 AM
    Samsung's moving to China?
  • -7 Hide
    house70 , October 25, 2012 12:07 AM
    LOL, Gruener said "penetration"...

    Pretty useless, I know, but I couldn't help it.

  • 6 Hide
    john_4 , October 25, 2012 12:22 AM
    vern72Samsung's moving to China?

    Don't see it, Samsung is Korean and their government has not sold out to China like the USA government has.
  • 5 Hide
    hero1 , October 25, 2012 12:29 AM
    Who else got the crystal ball? I will believe it when I see it.
  • 12 Hide
    sykozis , October 25, 2012 12:32 AM
    There are no Android computers....and ChromeOS has yet to get any traction at all.... The mobile market, being considerably larger than the PC market, it makes sense that Google would have more devices running "their" OS...
  • 3 Hide
    Richeemxx , October 25, 2012 12:33 AM
    Hmm lets see a 400% jump in the market over 4 years, kinda doubt that. Its fairly inevitable that we'll see another game changer coming along that will likely take some share from both. What it will be is anyone's guess, but I don't see those types of gains being sustainable each year.
  • 1 Hide
    Shin-san , October 25, 2012 12:35 AM
    sykozisThere are no Android computers....and ChromeOS has yet to get any traction at all.... The mobile market, being considerably larger than the PC market, it makes sense that Google would have more devices running "their" OS...
    I'm seeing this as well. They have to consider the enterprise market
  • 0 Hide
    portentous , October 25, 2012 1:12 AM
    Similar predictions have been made for Linux and OSX. At the end of the day, Windows XP pervails.
    The mobile platform has a much faster turnover time - Nokia and Blackberry was not so long ago all the rage. It will all depend on how well WP8 integrate with the corporate/enterprise structure to give both iOS and Android a run for their moneys.
  • 0 Hide
    edogawa , October 25, 2012 2:25 AM
    Apples and Oranges, comparing two operating systems for two totally different purposes.

    Article should say, "Android will continue to be on more phones and tablets then Windows still." Maybe Windows tablets will take off and sell more than android, I doubt Windows phones will become popular.
  • 0 Hide
    southernshark , October 25, 2012 2:28 AM
    It might happen. Although I am optimistic about Windows 8 phones, especially once we get some x86 (Atom) options out there. Right now there aren't nearly enough Atom phones and of course no Window 8, Atom phones. I hope that changes soon.
  • 2 Hide
    j2j663 , October 25, 2012 2:30 AM
    Great more wild accusations about what the tech world will be like in the future. And as always the prediction assumes that the technology will stay the same for some reason.
  • 0 Hide
    Anonymous , October 25, 2012 3:52 AM
    The part that sounds unrealistic to me is that the Microsoft monopoly is allegedly projected to increase their OS penetration by 50% in the next few years(1.5billion to 2.3billion). If the basis of those estimates are WP8 and Windows 8, aka Vista 2.0, aka Millenium Edition 3.0, then suffice it to say that Android might be overtaking Windows a little sooner...
  • 1 Hide
    sonofliberty08 , October 25, 2012 6:13 AM
    is there any mobile handset vendor named "Chinese" ?
  • 2 Hide
    alidan , October 25, 2012 6:58 AM
    i am sorry but tablets and phones are not equal to desktop, i cant call it surpassing microsoft in that regard.
  • 2 Hide
    in_the_loop , October 25, 2012 1:24 PM
    I don't think Android is the same full-blown operating system like Windows is.
    For starters, it doesn't support the vast amount of hardware allowing a PC-builder to build their custom PC using just about any hardware.
    Also, peripheral hardware like printers aren't really supported.
    And real multitasking is much better on Windows. Support for multiple monitors etc...
    In short: It is unfair to compare a specialized mobile OS to a general OS (intended primarily for desktop/laptop use). (Even though I personally love Android in my mobile).
  • 0 Hide
    bin1127 , October 25, 2012 3:45 PM
    I completely read into that title wrong. I kept thinking "what is this OS?"
  • 0 Hide
    mstngs351 , October 25, 2012 4:58 PM
    If they are counting phones as PC's then they should throw Xbox systems into MS's total number. News outlets and number crunchers need to stop lumping handheld OS's like this into the PC market.
  • 0 Hide
    Aar Zand , March 27, 2013 1:37 PM
    No matter the hype, Google's communist act is failing miserably. Samsung is taking almost all profits leaving Google and other Android manufacturer's almost nothing.

    Windows 8 tablet market share will surpass Android tablets very soon according to the IDC's estimate. The IDC's market share estimate is based on number of units. Windows 8 tablets are more expensive now, so it will sell fewer for now. But low cost models will come out soon. On the other hand, Android is going after the lower and lower end market at cheaper and cheaper prices.

    In terms of market share based on revenue, Microsoft's Surface is selling at $999, or $1140 plus the touch cover, that's about 5 times of 7" Android tablets. Revenue-wise, Microsoft only needs 1/5 of Android's market share to beat all Android manufacturers combined. Moreover, Surface has a gross margin of 45%, vs. cheap Android devices at less than 20% of gross margin, in terms of gross profit, Microsoft makes 11 times more profit selling one Surface Pro than Android vendors selling one Android tablet!

    And price-wise, Dell, Asus, HP and Lenovo are offering lower end Win 8 tablets at about $399 to $499, which is very competitive to iPad and 10" Android tablets. Lastly, don't forget that Microsoft receives $5-$10 of royalty for each Androud device sold.