China Expects to Compete with Intel, in 20 Years

I'd suspect that these computers utilizing Chinese-made cpus will probably fail constantly.

cool, that means intel prices will drop

The plastic that it's made from will fall apart and crumble.

...yeah. Good luck with your junk, China.

20 years is like a century in tech terms, when china says they going be competitive is that with current chips or future chips

I wonder if they will encourage their own citizens to create CPUs in their backyards. It worked out for smelting steel, right? Oh wait I guess not...

haha ...... maybe they can just buy out the foreign processor company , then it is not using foreign processor anymore

Hmm, look what AMD was producing in 1991 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Am386
I think this is a legitimate threat though. All China has to do is reverse-engineer all of the processors on the market and they're in business. What I believe China will do is undercut Intel and AMD by making extremely cheap low-performance processors that will ruin Intel and AMD's foothold in the normal non-entusiast market (ex. my parents who don't know anything about computers and would just buy the cheapest thing out there). This can only mean bad because as China starts pulling the rug out from underneath Intel and AMD they will pull their focus away from high-end processors and try to battle China (a battle they will inevitably lose because 1. They aren't countries and 2. They won't be able to sell products as cheap). The next 20 years will be a very interesting time in history in which I will be looking at through my fingers.

here is the better question. why?

its probably going to cost close to 50billion to 100billion over the next 10 years to make a competitive (the same way amd is competitive to intel, they are close, and may be better in some areas but not over taking them) processor, and even than probably another 10 years and minimum 25billion to match intel, and probably even more time and money to over take them, ASSUMING they can buy the title of number 1 processor.

i see little point in doing this, other than to p@## away money.

Please Appreciate 1 billion Chinese buying these things (because they're forced to) & "think" about it...

You know you're talking nonsense - not to mention, if the Americans are so great at everything, then you have nothing to worry about. Sadly, what exactly are the Americans superior in? Please let me know. Oh right, computer stuff right? Hmm...I guess Taiwan (Republic of China), isn't relevant in that field, right? Dude, everything in your computer IS from China!!!

Republic of China (Taiwan) is NOT the China referred to here. I am sure you know this very well!

I find it easier to belive that Intel will be completely unable to compete with the chinese product because the chinese ones are probably gonna be priced lower than Intel can handle. China is an export juggernaut for a reason you know.

Bitch no...!

China will destroy the USA and anyone in their way.

I am an ethnic Chinese brought up in the west, and I've lived both in China and the west. I want to make a clarification here, while the average Chinese product is of lower quality than their western counterpart, however, that does not mean exclude China from producing high-end equipment/electronics. Just for a fact, China was the third country to send man into space, the 2nd country to invent their own stealth fighter technology, etc, and one of the few countries that did not experience an economic crisis during the past few years – businesses are booming in China as we speak, - I doubt you have any clue of what I’m talking about because you are blinded by your American patriotism, and that might possibly be your ultimate downfall. And if you think everything in China is worth 50 cents and comes out of sweat shops, then you are very wrong. I've been working in China for couple of years and I can say that I make way more money, and way more productive here than I would ever be in the west, not everyone here is in slave labor. 20 years is still a long time, and they have nearly unlimited resource at hand, we should wait and see what China can come up with.

So in 20 years, Intel will pull an IBM and retreat to the enterprise only sector because they can't compete with the el-cheapo CPUs that everyone will be buying up to support foreign economies instead of their own.

Even China knows this and is going to start using their own processors instead of supporting an external economy... It's too bad America doesn't realize how stupid it is.

Just so you know there is a small difference between copy and invent.

I think China can pull it off considering the produce so many in the technology sector who end up imigrating to the US. All they have to do is make sure US companies don't hire and further educate their graduates.

who knows whats going to happen in 20 years. Maybe we will have socket implants and we will plug chips into ourselves. O you have socket 2033 you are so outdated.

It will have lead built into them poisoning the computer.

Invent? No, Chinese just copy (either from Russia or America mostly) and paste. Besides, it's not that other countries can't afford the cost of copy-paste shuttle technology. They don't do it simply because it's burning money! Really, what do China gain except the fame as being the 3rd country to send men to space? You are just a special example of Chinese and the majority in China are much poorer and would have much better lives if Chinese government invested those money in the community instead. Spending money in astronomy is OK but not before improving Chinese citizens' living quality which is one of the worst in the world. BTW, I didn't make any earthquake donation to China as I know the most money would go into bureaucrats, weapon invention, astronomy ...etc instead of peoples who really need it.

thats so funny, considering everything they sell and do is a counterfeit from the West, that includes CPU. they probably study intel and AMD CPU so much, taking pictures of blue prints, etc... and implement there team to reproduce it and if possible further advance it base on more pictures taken from future CPU blue prints. by hacking their way thru.

Don’t want to go off topic about steal fighter jets, but highly doubt it was copied, considering the American stealth fighter is highly classified, and it’s nearly impossible to copy it if you do not have access to it. But to get back to the subject, by your definition, then every single processor succeeding the first would be considered a "copy". While I agree that the Chinese are good at copying many things, but the reality is that the only thing they actually do copy are mostly the aesthetics, say the casing for a phone, (iPhone clone that looks like an iPhone, but performs nowhere near an iPhone, because the internal guts are completely different), its highly unlikely for anyone to just "copy" the technology due to the complexity involved, else we'd see many Intel clones by now.

Trust me just go with the flow and see whats happens..

its going to be meh.. but w/e

Articles saying such and such will happen in 20 years are guessing. China right now largely makes inferior copies of goods designed elsewhere and as an economy they have yet to learn to distinguish between cheap and good, but make no mistake, while they have not yet "arrived" in terms of being leading innovators the capability is certainly there. I manage a team in China and while wages right now are very low relative to North America/Western Europe, in the built up urban areas like Shanghai skilled labor is only roughly half what it costs in North America BUT, and this is the kicker, wages are increasing at a much faster rate than NAM (average wage increases are ~10% per annum for qualified university engineering graduate in China versus closer to ~3% per annum in NAM so at that rate of differential, in 20 years there will be wage parity and any economic advantage will have been lost (think of Japan 40 years ago). China simply wants to have technological independence but make no mistake the Intels of the world will not be standing still in the meantime.

In 20 years we won't be using silicone chips. Quantum computers, here we come!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5W4e7ZE0Nv0

Yeah, we don't use silicone chips even now. We use silicon!

They actually have access to a lot of our "classified" tech through an extensive spy network rivaled only by the russians. They have weapon secrets like much our nuclear arsenal and submarine tech. Infact when the stealth fighter was shot down chinese spys were paying farmers for little pieces.

LOL I was thinking the same

They use 20 years because by then all of the current patents will have expired, so they can use todays technology and sell outside of china in 20 years without infringing today patents.

Please stop saying that everything China produces is crap. Yes, some are absolute crap but some are very good product. I know because I have been to an expo there and I have seen very very good product. It only depends on what are you willing to pay. However if you what everything to be cheap then you are definitely good to get the "Made in China" in every product you get. you get what you pay for. Let´s take my tennis racquet, for example, it is a Head flexpoint midplus, used by Pro tennis player Marat Safin, it says designed in Austria, Made in China. Does that mean that it is a bad product? NO, it is a very good product used by someone who played professional tennis.
I think that nobody has a crystal ball but stop bashing a country just because it is not your homeland. Does it matter if China is going to compete with Intel in 20 years? NO. If they can good for them, if not, maybe next time.
Just because the USA has the best things right know, it doesn´t mean that it will continue having the best in the future.
And please do not mistake America with the United States of America. It shows very little general knowledge from the people who say they are american when in fact, they are just US citizens. America is a continent where USA, Canada, Mexico and a bunch of other countries are part of. Or do you Chinese call themselves Asians? They call themselves Chinese. because Asian include other nations people. If you guys do not believe me please go to to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americas and you will see what does america mean.
Sorry for my English as it is not my fist language.