PC Shipments Expected to Decline For First Time in 11 Years

Market research firm IHS said that the high hopes for a rebound year for the PC have faded.

The company has revised its forecast for 2012 and now believes that only 348.7 million PCs will be sold this year - down 1.2 percent from 352.8 million. The last time the industry declined was in 2001, the year when the dotcom bust came crashing down on the PC industry.

Sobering outlooks posted by Intel and AMD appear to be the main drivers for the revised forecast. The back-to-school season has not jump-started things, ultrabook shipments are behind analyst's expectations, and there are questions about just how much impact Windows 8 will have on the PC industry. Analysts are also watching the performance of tablets and smartphones and whether they will negatively impact PC sales in the fourth quarter.

IHS said that there is now hope that 2013 will be a rebound year for the PC. This hope is resting on ultrabooks and ultracompact systems, as well as Windows 8. "Whether a newly configured PC space could then stand up to the powerful smartphone and tablet markets, however, remains to be seen," IHS said.

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13 Ð

jacobdrj , October 12, 2012 12:54 AM

SSDs: Making your current computer hardware good enough since 2010...

Once you hit Quad Core plus SSD, have enough archival storage space and a GPU that can play Google Earth well, you are pretty much set...
11 Ð

SpadeM , October 12, 2012 12:49 AM

Since performance on the hardware side is "good enough" for the last couple of years, those that own a 6 core sistem or a i7 920 have no reason to upgrade to new parts. This time around i believe we need the software to catch up and squeez every bit of performance from the hardware at hand. I've seen Intel and AMD introduce new instruction sets but haven't seen the software to benefit from it yet. Sure there are a few out there but mainly expensive ones.
10 Ð

bigdragon , October 12, 2012 2:59 AM

Oh no! The sky is falling! They're only going to sell 349 million PCs this year instead of 352 million! Only 349 million! Oh the humanity! Clearly this is the post-PC era.

Only on Wall Street is anything less than record positive numbers considered failure.

Other Comments

1 Ð

boogalooelectric , October 12, 2012 12:47 AM

DOOOM!
11 Ð

SpadeM , October 12, 2012 12:49 AM

Since performance on the hardware side is "good enough" for the last couple of years, those that own a 6 core sistem or a i7 920 have no reason to upgrade to new parts. This time around i believe we need the software to catch up and squeez every bit of performance from the hardware at hand. I've seen Intel and AMD introduce new instruction sets but haven't seen the software to benefit from it yet. Sure there are a few out there but mainly expensive ones.
13 Ð

jacobdrj , October 12, 2012 12:54 AM

SSDs: Making your current computer hardware good enough since 2010...

Once you hit Quad Core plus SSD, have enough archival storage space and a GPU that can play Google Earth well, you are pretty much set...
3 Ð

guru_urug , October 12, 2012 1:02 AM

I dont care what these analysts claim. There are some things that suit a PC the best. I mean its cool to have big displays with high resolutions and quad core chips on a mobile or a tablet. But you can't replace the comfort of using a PC and the ease of repair and upgradabilty it brings with it. Also every PC is unique, its allows you to put what you want in it! or atleast choose from a plethora of configurations. I can choose the way it looks, the way it lights up, I can mix and match components to get the best of all worlds to get the most bang for buck. I know I will be using a PC for a long long time.
-1 Ð

jacobdrj , October 12, 2012 1:08 AM

guru_urugI dont care what these analysts claim. There are some things that suit a PC the best. I mean its cool to have big displays with high resolutions and quad core chips on a mobile or a tablet. But you can't replace the comfort of using a PC and the ease of repair and upgradabilty it brings with it. Also every PC is unique, its allows you to put what you want in it! or atleast choose from a plethora of configurations. I can choose the way it looks, the way it lights up, I can mix and match components to get the best of all worlds to get the most bang for buck. I know I will be using a PC for a long long time.

PCs, at this point in the CONSUMER MARKET, is a niche product.

Workstations are something else. Still, a niche product for people who need desktop power. Most people in the business world are happy with laptop offerings...
3 Ð

boyabunda , October 12, 2012 1:09 AM

I like small form factor, low noise, high-performance PCs.
1 Ð

shafe88 , October 12, 2012 1:12 AM

Quote:
PC Shipments Expected to Decline For First Time in 11 Years
Just wait, just wait, right before the launch of Win8 PC's shipments will skyrocket with people heading to the stores snatching up Win7 PC's before Win8 PC's ship.
9 Ð

XZaapryca , October 12, 2012 1:26 AM

This is what happens when developers write for consoles that use seven year old HW and just port that crap to PC. Why would I need a new PC if my old one runs "new" games just fine? The chickens are coming home to roost.
1 Ð

InvalidError , October 12, 2012 1:53 AM

With the number of non-PC computing platforms available to consumers, the PC is slipping into a secondary or tertiary role for the non-PC-gamer/productivity crowd.

For people who only use their PCs for browsing, banking, Netflix, etc., the ~$75 stick-size ARM/Android platforms that plug directly into the display's HDMI port often get the job done. Same goes with smart-TVs, modern game consoles, smartphones, tablets, etc.

The only thing missing for more low-cost Android heavy-lifting in diminutive form factors is ARM64 to support 4+GB RAM and full-size applications.
1 Ð

COLGeek , October 12, 2012 1:57 AM

Given the incredible processing power available for the relative low cost we have experienced during this time frame, it is no wonder that users are able to keep systems longer (in terms of viability and playability). If systems last longer, users buy fewer.

Same logic applies to cars as well. Think about it.
-1 Ð

deadlockedworld , October 12, 2012 2:00 AM

Yea, but Apple exists outside of this bubble. 10 million ipad minis will drive sales for the holiday. (You don't mention if this study counts tablets)
-3 Ð

votriminh , October 12, 2012 2:11 AM

PC shipments are only declining due to consumers learning how to put do-it-yourself pc parts together by themselves. With the internet and youtube, and with especially how easy it is to assemble, everyone is doing it on their own instead of ordering from best buy or any online retailer. that's my speculation.
-1 Ð

molo9000 , October 12, 2012 2:15 AM

Hardware has simply outgrown software.
Even a 5 year old mobile dual core is still enough to do anything a normal user would want. A new computer is just a waste of money for most people.

Only 2 ways forward:
a) new form factors
b) new software. Like in the early 1980s, when excess processing power was used to make graphical user interfaces.
2 Ð

Dupontrocks11 , October 12, 2012 2:27 AM

The fate of the computer industry relies on Windows 8? Uh oh....
-1 Ð

shafe88 , October 12, 2012 2:49 AM

Dupontrocks11The fate of the computer industry relies on Windows 8? Uh oh....

I don't think so, people will either skip Win8 altogether, or just upgrade their current computer to Win8. With Win8 being a Little more resource friendly than Win7, people are more inclined to just upgrade their current system rather then spending money on a whole new system when upgrading is a lot cheaper.
10 Ð

bigdragon , October 12, 2012 2:59 AM

Oh no! The sky is falling! They're only going to sell 349 million PCs this year instead of 352 million! Only 349 million! Oh the humanity! Clearly this is the post-PC era.

Only on Wall Street is anything less than record positive numbers considered failure.
2 Ð

anonymous@guest , October 12, 2012 3:08 AM

In some articles they define tablets as part of "PC" (usually Apple articels), then in other articles "PC" acquires a strict and traditional interpretation. CAN WE PLEASE STICK TO ONE DEFINITION OF "PC"?
IMO tablet != PC
1 Ð

g00fysmiley , October 12, 2012 3:57 AM

well i build them myself, but really my semi old 955 black w/ 450's in sli is all i need. it plays every gaem i throw at it in good resolutions with decent frame rates in 1080p ... so why upgrade, i liekly will have to once the new consoles hit and games start utilizing the new hardware btu we have been in kind of a software cap for a few years
3 Ð

wolley74 , October 12, 2012 4:28 AM

In other news, PC component sales are on the rise
2 Ð

hydac7 , October 12, 2012 4:48 AM

votriminhPC shipments are only declining due to consumers learning how to put do-it-yourself pc parts together by themselves. With the internet and youtube, and with especially how easy it is to assemble, everyone is doing it on their own instead of ordering from best buy or any online retailer. that's my speculation.

True, I always make my own , i like to buy each individual part and put them in myself , I can configure my PC/server/workstation exactly the way i want it to be , and that is of monumental importance to me !

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