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• The State Of The Personal Computer

  “Everyone should switch to Windows Vista, but wait until SP1.” “This year, Linux will reach the mainstream desktop.” “The number of Macs at major universities is almost at 50%.” It doesn’t matter whether your favorite operating system is Windows, Mac OS X, or Linux or you want a computer that just works—technology pundits are always writing about the “next big shift.” Every year, the predictions are the same: Windows users are frustrated, Linux/MacOS will take over. During the final months of 2008, we thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at the state of personal computing and consider the future of each platform. Indeed, 2008 is already shaping up to be a year of milestones. Microsoft Windows Vista reached SP1 status, making it the choice of new PCs across the board; AMD’s Radeon line once again became competitive against Nvidia’s recent GPU dominance; and the launch of Intel Core i7 marks the chip giant’s first major design change since the original Core Duo launch. This has also been a year of transition and change for Apple Mac OS X and Linux. The release of Apple’s new unibody MacBook and MacBook Pro has created new interest in potential “switchers,” while Linux has seen its most mainstream success to date with the growing popularity of netbooks. The question is: what will 2009 look like? Will Microsoft’s market share continue to erode after the lackluster release of Windows Vista and rising threats of malware? Will Mac OS X users still be willing to pay an “Apple Tax” and benefit from the relative lack of malware? Will Linux’ success with netbooks open the way for The Year of Desktop Linux? For the record, I’m a user of all three operating systems. By this, I don’t mean “I’ve installed this OS or that one before.” I was predominantly a Windows Vista user, although I’ve switched to OS X 10.5 Leopard for my notebook and primary PC, leaving Vista on a HTPC only. My research workstation ran IRIX 6.5 from 2001 to 2004, and since 2005, I’ve done my work on Linux, beginning with Vector Linux, then SuSE, and now Fedora Linux.

• Windows gives you the widest software and hardware support with a weakness in security. Mac OS X gives you a secure user experience with nearly all the features of a Windows PC and superior capabilities in the Apple sandbox with the weakness of cost. Linux becomes the jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none for the desktop giving you security and stability without the widespread compatibility of Windows or the user experience of a Mac. A decade ago, people would have said that Linux was ill-suited for “real” server work. Are naysayers of desktop Linux being as naïve? I don’t think so. What About Netbooks? The beauty of the netbook is that its purpose is not to serve as a true notebook or desktop replacement. HP has done the best job of positioning its Linux-based netbooks as offering a “Mobile Internet Experience.” Here’s an excerpt from its Webpage: HP Netbooks HP Mini 1000 HP Mini 1000 with MIE Typical Notebooks Size 10” x 5” (fits in a purse) 10” x 5” (fits in a purse) 12” x 8” (fits in a backpack) Ideal Uses Checking e-mailSurfing the WebViewing photosWatching videosListening to musicPlaying casual gamesUsing Windows-compatible applications Checking e-mailSurfing the WebViewing photosWatching videosListening to musicPlaying casual games Replacing your desktop PCRunning office productivity softwareEditing photos and videosPlaying mainstream games The key here is that HP isn’t positioning its netbook as a desktop alternative or even drawing attention to how the netbook is compatible with Linux applications. By promising only basic Internet features, anything else is just a bonus. The Only Hope for Linux The global economic crisis won’t drive users toward a “free” operating system. As I mentioned earlier, most people will choose to keep their existing computer. As money gets tighter, most people will look to eliminate uncertainty. With a PC, it’s a known entity. With a Mac, you have the Genius Bar for technical support. There is no local Linux guru. The only way Linux can reach the mainstream desktop is if that uncertainty is removed. For Linux to catch on as a desktop OS, it would take a store like Best Buy to make a commitment to push Linux at the mainstream. It starts with the development of a new Linux distribution focused on the tools that HP has already identified as being important to most home users: office productivity and editing photos. Imagine a stripped-down distribution with Open Office, Evolution, Firefox, F-Spot, Gimp, Brasero, Banshee, xgl/Compiz, and essentially nothing else. Finally, lock everything down to ensure adequate security. By pre-installing a very specific subset of Linux applications on a PC, users won’t be daunted by auto-updates reporting the installation of dozens of packages. More importantly, it allows Best Buy store associates to learn and demonstrate a very specific set of applications after a single day of training. Have a dedicated Geek Squad Linux person at every store. This person doesn’t need to be an expert–he or she just needs to be knowledgeable enough to help consumers with their Linux machine and how to configure VNC. Best Buy can then have a centralized team of expert technicians who can access/troubleshoot machines remotely. Now offer this package as a “Blue Label” PC. They already have Blue Label notebooks. With all of the cost savings of going to Linux versus Windows, pocket the cash. Best Buy can sell these systems at the same prices as their Windows counterparts. That’s because these systems will include a free year of Geek Squad system support. It’s a simple plan: Focused Linux distribution with a minimal install to improve speed and minimize the support needed In-store demonstration and support Remote Desktop Tech Support Bundled year of the service plan The goal for Best Buy would be to break even in the first year, and then profit as home users renew their service plan.

• Fifty years from now, historians will look back and realize the unparalleled impact Linux has had on human civilization. Most people don’t realize it, but the world in 2008 already runs on Linux. I’m not simply talking about how the majority of Internet servers run on Linux, but the ubiquitous use of Linux in embedded devices ranging from televisions to laser printers/copiers to military avionics. However, one area where Linux will never succeed is the desktop. Linux apologists can make any number of arguments why Linux should take off on the desktop. First of all, it’s a server-grade operating system that’s available for free. No Apple Tax. No Microsoft Tax. Companies such as Dell are now even shipping PCs from the factory with Linux installed, removing the uncertainty of support. Second, Linux is efficient, allowing you to breathe new life into old computers. Lastly, all of the trappings of a traditional desktop PC are now found in Linux, ranging from Xgl/compiz for Aero and Quartz-style visual effects to OpenOffice and even Firefox. The problem is that people like shiny things. While technology geeks may be interested in breathing new life into their older PCs, Moore’s Law continues to make the argument irrelevant. In the era where an entry-level PC was over $1,000, this may have made sense. Nowadays, an entry-level system has a dual- or even quad-core CPU for a fraction of that cost. The cost of Windows Vista is about $50 to a manufacturer such as Dell, less than a full tank of gas. The problem arises when the consumer decides to upgrade to get a new printer or a new HDTV tuner and suddenly discovers that Linux does not support the new hardware. Linux works for technology geeks because, when you have the time and inclination, it can be fun to tweak and fiddle with your PC. If you’re a technology geek, it’s fun to try out different window managers to get the perfect fit or to troubleshoot and debug your setup. However, most consumers want plug-and-play, and that’s where Linux fails. The Failed Sandbox Model To succeed in Linux, you have to play in the Linux sandbox. You have to research ahead of time to make sure that new hardware is fully compatible. While Linux promises oodles and oodles of applications (just look at any distribution), the options are far less when it comes to the stuff that really matters. Want a modern Web browser? You’re stuck with Firefox. On the PC, you’ve got the option of Google Chrome. Want to process RAW digital camera images in Linux? You can choose between Bibble- and dcraw-based applications. On a PC or Mac, you have a wider range of options. You can use Bibble and dcraw, but you also have Capture One, Lightroom, SilkyPix, Photoshop, and countless others. The problem is that for most consumers, Mac OS X offers most of the benefits of Linux with a better sandbox to play in. It’s just as stable as Linux and offers the same or even better out-of-the-box security, but has even wider software and hardware support and a set of best-of-breed native applications. Those requiring additional flexibility in hardware support can go with a PC on the desktop. While you have to deal with the security risk of Vista and the annoyance of Vista’s UAC, the trade-off is fair to most consumers in being able to avoid the idiosyncrasies of Linux. Even Linux’ temporary success with netbooks has been short lived. After initially embracing Linux for the cost savings, many netbook manufacturers such as MSI are backing away from Linux after recognizing a 4x higher return rate. The power management features in operating systems such as MacOS X or Windows XP are superior to those of Linux, and a Windows XP-powered Eee PC lasts longer than a Linux-powered Eee PC. Here’s another way to look at it: create a list of the best Linux applications for the desktop or home user. How many of those are also available for the PC or Mac? Now try creating a list of the best PC or Mac applications. How many of those are available for Linux? The very best applications that Linux has to offer are probably offered in a Mac OS X or Windows port as well. With OS X shipping with X11 and UNIX compliance, even custom software development can be achieved on a Mac.