2011: Is Microsoft Drifting Into Insignificance?
Microsoft has developed a very special talent to shoot itself in the foot and I am wondering what happened to the company that has commoditized computers with passion and unusual ideas for the future of computing?
I 
do not want to turn this into a rant and uncontrollable discussion about Microsoft products that are, depending on your view, either great or simply suck. However, since Steve Ballmer's keynote at CES 2011 earlier this month I have been wondering whether Microsoft has turned into a black hole for great ideas. What was the latest great idea of Microsoft that truly departed from what we are used to in the mainstream anyway?
Right, that would be Kinect. However, there is a good chance that Microsoft could kill Kinect before it can even open the doors to a future controller-less world. On a personal level, and from my view as a someone who has a lot of respect for Microsoft's past, it is rather upsetting to read a condescending opinion piece by a Microsoft blogger that ridicules hacking of Kinect, because no one would be interested in such efforts and technologies outside of research.
Instead of recognizing such efforts that play into future user models and, to a certain degree, the expressed vision of Microsoft's CEO, they are dismissed as "annoying" script kiddie-projects. Not being able to advance an admittedly great product is a failure in itself, but insulting those who offer the vision Microsoft so desperately would need this day makes you wonder how relevant a company could be whose employees openly publish such opinions. Jump over to SoCal Sam's post to get the full story. My favorite parts of his "thoughts" on Kinect hacks:
"'How many people are using Kinect with open source?', with a smirk or a gleeful smile on their face. All I can say to them is: “No one”. Really why would anyone? The games are structured and well written for Kinect on the Xbox, can you say the same for Linux or Windows? Would a normal person (which includes App Devs) go out to buy a Kinect to use with Linux or Windows? Seriously, I just don’t think so."
"Frankly, I think these hacks are a waste of time outside of academics or research. If you do an interesting hack these days, are you going to be able to monetize it? Are you going to save the world? Not likely, most people (and this includes app devs) are no longer using stuff that lone hackers create."
"In the old days hackers did interesting things and gave corporations heads up that they had a security breach. Currently? Hackers are mostly script kiddies that like to think that they are performing a service. The reality, is that they are simply annoying the people who want to use their purchased software for business or pleasure."
"If the hacker you know isn’t making legal money or no money, then you might want to talk to them about their purpose in life, point out that life is getting more expensive and that the world of software has changed."
"On the other hand, using Kinect hacks outside of academics? Waste of time. Focus on Windows Presentation Foundation, learn XAML, learn HTML5, better use of your time."
To be fair, even if this opinion is published on Microsoft's MSDN site and even if it is an official comment, this is an individual opinion and I have no idea whether the official corporate delegation of Microsoft would agree. However, let's have a closer look at Microsoft's current products and strategies.
Windows 7 is doing well, but it is far from being a visionary operating system that does more than what was expected anyway. Windows 8 is still a couple years out, but we already know that Microsoft is modeling the OS after Apple ideas and there is not much we can say would be especially revolutionary. Microsoft should be able to deliver much more and should be shaping trends, not following them. The mainstream cloud computing strategy is largely limited to Office 365, but there is not much innovation that does not simply follow the competition.
Microsoft is trying to catch up with Bing, which is a solid search engine, but cannot differentiate itself enough from Google. Windows Phone 7 is, as much as Microsoft claims, not a different smartphone platform - at least not different enough to enable consumers to easily see the difference. In consumer's views, it is a me-too product no one needs. Quite frankly, Windows 7 has been the kind of waste of time the blogger of above has described. The true innovation is delivered today by the Surface group and Kinect. However, Kinect is a very rough product today - the kind of detailed motion recognition we expected from the very beginning will cost money and only be available via Avatar Kinect in Xbox Live Gold. A rather dumb move in my opinion.
Extending Kinect to Windows to use apps such as Google Earth or telepresence environments seem to be a natural evolution. However, at least SoCal Sam does not believe that anyone would want to use Kinect with Windows or Linux. I am not sure if he was kidding about that. If he was, I am wondering if a company that quashes and dismisses efforts to explore quite apparent usage models (free of charge to Microsoft) can be setting trends or if it is losing significance? A few weeks ago, I discussed with some analysts whether Microsoft has just become to stale and old to be able to move in ways companies like Google or Facebook do. There is no doubt that Microsoft will be around for a long time, but there is a good chance that, in a few years, Microsoft will be about as important to the general user as IBM is today. It is there and is fairly successful, but it is not setting the main technology trends for the immediate future.
Would you trust Microsoft with interpreting the direction of current user needs? I doubt it. If we relied on Microsoft alone, we would be pretty much stuck with what we have for the next decade. I miss the passion and enthusiasm that has Microsoft successful. I miss the risk-taking and the kind of jaw-dropper product Windows 95 was.
Seriously, Microsoft. It is time for an exciting product and an open view on what is possible.
- Leaked Slide Reveals Nvidia Tegra 2 3D, More
- Palit, Gainward Packs GTX 580 Cards with 3 GB
- Rumor: Windows 8 Going RTM in 2012
- Eurocom Claims 'Most Powerful 15" Notebook'
- Blizzard Officially Responds to World of StarCraft
- A Comical Look at the State of the Internet
- Phone Disguised as Keyboard Can Hack Computer
- AMD Shipped Over 1 Million Fusion APUs
- AMD: OpenGL 4.1 Arrives On Windows, Linux
- Microsoft Points Out iPad's Enterprise Weaknesses
- Do-Not-Track Next Major Browser Feature
- Intel to Share Next-Gen Poulson CPU Details
- DRAM Prices at 22-Month Low, Start Buying
- Blizzard Unveils 3 Custom Games for StarCraft 2
- id Software Releases New RAGE Screens
- IBM To Build Huge Cloud Datacenter In Asia
- Direct2Drive Now Offers Digital Rentals
- Intel Names Musician Will.i.am Creative Director
The day Steam goes on Linux is the day I abandon Windows. The world needs to understand that there is a capable OS that doesn't cost them a foot.
Since when is Kinect a wireless controller? I thought it was a portable motion sensor made for public purchase, since other motion sensors don't sell in public.
They're just a bloated company riding on the success of their superiors whom have long since left the organization. They no longer have any vision.
I've often wondered if long-term exposure to Steve Ballmer's asshole caused brain damage. Now, thanks to "SoCal Sam", it's confirmed!
i think of microsoft like I do the USA. used to be the 'big dog' and they arent anymore, only nobody told them.
and really innovation now is nothing more than a $$$ million marketing plan.
but to answer your question Wolfgang, Microsoft lost its innovation when a salesman took control.
Honestly, Wolfgang, this rant was brought on by the opinion of ONE guy at Microsoft? Out of how many, thousands?
)
You ask what kind of game changer that Microsoft has brought out? Besides Kinect?
I consider Win7, perhaps not a game changer, but a very solid evolution - every bit as much an evolution as was Win95, which was, if you'll remember, merely a shell on top of MS-Dos (complete with open kernel, driver issues, crashing, etc.)
XBox360 is top of the line, driving innovation - would we have the PS3 or the Wii if we didn't have the XBox360? Heck, it's a triangle competition (fanboi rants aside).
Office has made great strides, and their unheralded OneNote is amazing. I can't live without it and haven't found anything else that does what OneNote does (and if anyone has something, I'm still waiting, especially for a Mac or Linux program so I can put it on a cheap, old, laptop.
Their hardware is still excellent - remember, they drove the optical mouse revolution as theirs was the first affordable one to get rid of the ball - Logitech's was a couple of years later. Their keyboards are solid and quite good - I go back and forth between Logitech and Microsoft - love them both.
Drifting into Insignificance? Hmmmm - let us know what it's like there as that's your location NOW.
The day Steam goes on Linux is the day I abandon Windows. The world needs to understand that there is a capable OS that doesn't cost them a foot.
This^ 1,000%. I'm tired of dealing with Windows. Linux is faster, lighter, and more reliable and also there a are tons of distro's to choose. Ubuntu being my favorite of course.
If I owned a lappy just for average usage I'd install Linux on it right away.
That drive to lead is gone from MS
Have you noticed how the Windows 7 interface looks surprisingly like what KDE looks like on Linux ?
Part about Kinect was pure FUD. "Waste of time", "script kiddies", "monetize"... FUD, FUD and more FUD. They have developed quite a skill in this department. I bet they hold bimonthly FUD seminars teaching how to discourage independent developers and direct people away from FOSS (free open-source software).
Steam for Linux would be epic.
I think MS peaked with Windows XP. Windows Vista was considered a huge step back, and Windows 7, while good to use and pretty stable, still isn't as flexible at Windows XP. The fact that the majority of users still use Windows XP even more than a year after Windows 7 came out shows this.
Microsoft has lost it. They aren't going to continue to be a dominant force in future computing.
What I want to see is an OS that does nothing but host virtual machines. Every app is self contained with its own OS. The apps could not interfere with each other. A virus infecting one could not touch others or the OS. It would be perfect for support purposes. Written properly, with full virtual access to the video and sound hardware, it could be even better for games, as they could have their own OS with no interference from any OS bloat.
I hope Cloud computing dies quietly in the near future, though. I will never trust my documents, settings, and internet history to be stored on someone else's servers, especially MS. Microsoft is going very wrong with Windows 8.
The day Steam goes on Linux is the day I abandon Windows. The world needs to understand that there is a capable OS that doesn't cost them a foot.
Unfortunately that's not enough.
Steam is already available for Mac OS, but most of the games are not compatible.
Of course having Steam on Linux would be a good incentive to develop for it, but I'm afraid that's simply not enough...
Oh, and Steam can run on Linux. There's a project called "PlayOnLinux".
I'm using VirtualBox for my Windows-based software (mostly for school) but games can run too. Granted not at full speed - for that you will need a dual booting setup, one for internet, media, office, etc and one strictly for gaming, with a gaming theme, gaming icon set, etc.
I'd have to agree with all you've said. I'm not sure exactly when Microsoft lost any intent to lead, but clearly with Windows Phone 7, they've put themselves solidly into a "me-too" category. On the desktop, it will probably take decades before Windows market share erodes to a point where iOS and Linux are real competitors, but in the game-station and smart-phone market, I suspect it won't be nearly that long before Microsoft becomes a "whatever happened to..."
Microsoft OS's control 85%+ of the Notebook and Desktop PC's out there (check usage data). What they need to do is ride along just like they are without moving +/-5% in either direction... get bigger get sued more, get smaller lose a little money get sued less, stay the same and ride a perfect market model.
They're completely lacking in any kind of vision or coordination, they have departments that compete against each other when they could be working together to beat the real competition (Xbox and Games for Windows), everything new they release is derivative and at least 18 months later than the rest of the market, they trot our Ballmer to embarrass the entire organisation by slating something by Apple which later goes on to be a huge success, they overprice their products or put obnoxious advertising in them (WLM, Windows Phone 7) as if this were still the 90's and they were still on top. I could go on. It's just a mess.
XP and Windows 7 are as flexible as each other. The reason why people are still on XP is that they probably don't want to spend the money, aren't bothered or are standard people that don't know about such things.
As for Microsoft, maybe they should run a marketing spin that calls the competition, sorry, the CONSUMER, stupid, sad, with little to no friends.. Apple adverts. Or, they could be google and stretch out into every damn sector, releasing beta after beta of buggy code etc.... Google.
They can't as they would be slammed. Tech sites are against MS (Sites like engadget at least) and whatever they do, it's not enough. Heck, look at tablets, "Microsofts Tablet"... They don't make tablets, oems do.
Lets get one thing straight right now: If Toshiba, Asus, Sony, Acer, Fujitsu or IBM actually had a back bone, any of those players could be up there taking customers from Apple. Heck, I at least give Google credit for doing just something like that.
We 'need' Microsoft for stability. Someone above stated that they'd move from Windows if Steam was released on Linux, but, which one, which version, which release, would there be drivers (probably), should all the oems quickly change over and bam, we'd be back to square one with millions of pcs being infected. Who would support you, would there be thousands of paged dedicated to help (eventually)?
At times we can be so short sighted that it baffles me no end. But then again, on the other hand, let's get rid of MS and see what happens. It could, after all, be to our benefit.
P.s. I see MS as a software house that makes an operating system FOR other peoples kit. Blame the oems for being lazy, not ms. (Once again I cannot 'submit my comment' using Opera)
Microsoft really has found itself lost, in part because it is not designed to be a corporation dedicated to innovation. It was designed to be an operating system. Given that most of the computing world uses Windows in some flavor or another is testament to the fact that it has succeeded with its' primary and original goal. MS Office only serves to enhance the business-side of the OS, so that's okay. But that's where the fairy tale ends.
What Microsoft ultimately lacks is a human understanding of computers. Oh, I can usually trust that any printer, scanner, peripheral, or damn near anything will run with Windows. I can trust that the OS will do a generally respectable job (not shining, mind you, but for the average user it will do just fine) of loading drivers and doing what it needs to do. But that's where Microsoft stops.
They never think to ask how to integrate everything in my life in a workable manner. They don't consider how to make the PC the center place of my home in a way that enables me to interact with my utilities, banking, or any of my major appliances. There is no suitable market for people to build on Windows outside of things like widgets and fonts--and those are almost all variations of the same few themes with no real innovation or public interaction. They have no long-term idea of what they want to do aside from doing a Windows version of what everyone else is already doing--usually poorly.
Microsoft needs to develop a reason for us to need it. There is no shortage of ways that MS could encourage people in its' own brand, but I sincerely doubt they would be nimble enough to grab the opportunity or have resolve enough to invest in the entirety of a product.
Unfortunately that's not enough.Steam is already available for Mac OS, but most of the games are not compatible.Of course having Steam on Linux would be a good incentive to develop for it, but I'm afraid that's simply not enough...
The primary reason why I would want Steam on Linux is for the chat functionality, not for games. Once an adequate distribution platform is available, game development on other OSs will start to increase. Slowly, of course.
but in the game-station and smart-phone market, I suspect it won't be nearly that long before Microsoft becomes a "whatever happened to..."
Microsoft has been a "whatever happened to..." in the smartphone market for the last decade.
If microsoft is wilting away and dying ten years from now, then it's replacement will be a throwdown between nvidia and linux. Honestly, until someone can industrialize and truly mainstream linux, I don't see it succeeded. The average consumer (meaning the 90% of microsoft's customers who just waltz into best buy and buy the first computer they see in their price range) needs to be hand-fed. And there's not a whole lot of hand-feeding you can do with linux, even if there were enough people to do it. It's the most difficult platform to learn, and grandma barely knows how to check her email. Then there's that problem of linux being free, which means best buy won't sell it cuz they can't exact their pound of flesh by upping its price, unless they make a version themselves and start charging for it.
Nvidia, on the other hand, has good business smarts, knows how to turn a dime, is very innovative, and is diving head first into new frontiers (or at least new to them). I wouldn't be surprised in 10 years to see them making everything from motherboards to flash games.
the day that linux can natively run all games is the day that i switch form windows. (not really, i bought windows 7 so i will use it for its life cycle)
My question is, who other then Google is innovating on this fictional level you speak of? If I hear another: Apple innovated.. innovation shpeal I'm gonna firebomb an orphanage. here is what you are missing Mr. Ggruener: popularity of a product doesn't constitute innovation or a progressive design or implementation. It means that some people are enticed with certain products because they are simply different or new, and sometimes those strange or aesthetically groundbreaking get popular because of that. The Xbox 9000 will be just as big a hit as the 360 and Microsoft will again come out with a great operating system that is not a revolution from from previous versions but will work with almost all software and hardware and will be affordable for us normal people who spend 5000 dollars on a car not a computer.
Honestly, Wolfgang, this rant was brought on by the opinion of ONE guy at Microsoft? Out of how many, thousands? You ask what kind of game changer that Microsoft has brought out? Besides Kinect? I consider Win7, perhaps not a game changer, but a very solid evolution - every bit as much an evolution as was Win95, which was, if you'll remember, merely a shell on top of MS-Dos (complete with open kernel, driver issues, crashing, etc.) XBox360 is top of the line, driving innovation - would we have the PS3 or the Wii if we didn't have the XBox360? Heck, it's a triangle competition (fanboi rants aside). Office has made great strides, and their unheralded OneNote is amazing. I can't live without it and haven't found anything else that does what OneNote does (and if anyone has something, I'm still waiting, especially for a Mac or Linux program so I can put it on a cheap, old, laptop. ) Their hardware is still excellent - remember, they drove the optical mouse revolution as theirs was the first affordable one to get rid of the ball - Logitech's was a couple of years later. Their keyboards are solid and quite good - I go back and forth between Logitech and Microsoft - love them both.Drifting into Insignificance? Hmmmm - let us know what it's like there as that's your location NOW.
I'll maybe agree with the one guy representing the company part. But Windows 7 is good. I use it but it should have been out years ago. And there isn't anything I couldn't have thought to put in it. Its a good boring product.
Sony and Nintendo are the reason there is a xbox360....not the other way around. Yes we would have ps3 without them just like we have playstation without them.
So your going to credit them with making a good mouse long ago.. plenty of good ones now. And office, come on, Libre office is going to continue to keep people from over paying for that product.
I think M$ is still a monster but is nothing compared to what it used to be. They really lost on the mobile market and the way I see it the world is moving in that direction
Ah, the pendulum swings... Most of your comments are naive, subjective and (a few) are down-right misinformed and uneducated! If I recall correctly, nvidia was written off by most of you, a little more than 5 months ago. They're not doing all that bad today. Microsoft has always been a double edge sword, and they will continue to be regardless of the "competition". Google, Facebook, these are solid companies but they are teens compared to Microsoft's mature wisdom. Oh, Wolfgang, I loved the IBM comment by the way, you're right, they have become irrelevant...I mean looking at the lame research projects they're constantly funding and conducting really demonstrates their irrelevance. https://researcher.ibm.com/research [...] s.php?ex=y
I'll maybe agree with the one guy representing the company part. But Windows 7 is good. I use it but it should have been out years ago. And there isn't anything I couldn't have thought to put in it. Its a good boring product.Sony and Nintendo are the reason there is a xbox360....not the other way around. Yes we would have ps3 without them just like we have playstation without them.So your going to credit them with making a good mouse long ago.. plenty of good ones now. And office, come on, Libre office is going to continue to keep people from over paying for that product.
I only gave a few examples. . . could have gone on with Photosynth, and some others.
Anyway - LibreOffice? It's starting to approach true usability - I can't use it, especially the spreadsheet. Just doesn't approach what Excel does without thinking. . . Sorry - OO and LO may be learning, but they're nowhere close yet.
And XBox360? Look how long that Sony was content to stick with the PS2 - years; and it was content with the Playstation for years. No competition, really, that it couldn't bury. Then, a year after the PS2, comes the XBox and once it gained popularity and started to make inroads against the PS2, MS releases the 360 (remember, it came out prior to the PS3). Remember it came out prior to both the Wii and the 360. . .
Anyway - not representing MS, was just disgusted by Wolfgang's shallow analysis of one guy's opining on a website. . . so had to opine myself!
Is it just me or is THG becoming more and more a Apple / Linux fanboy site every day ?
Today its let kick MS... but wait let us praise the almight Linux... tried linux.. not a bad effort but got pissed off with some of my softare not working so went back to W7.
Every other day the news is full of apple crap.
Unfortunately it isn't a company that causes its own downfall, it's opinionated drivel such as this article that spreads to the masses with no actual reason behind it. Personally I see as much innovation from MS as I do from Apple. Pretty much nothing. Everything has already been done and they all try to market their stolen ideas as "revolutionary". The difference is that Apple fans believe it while MS fans don't.
It's only opinion that brings down a company.
In answer to your question at the outset I say; no, Microsoft is not drifting into insignifigance! It think it is funny how we are all like a bunch of lemmings. It is popular and chic to bash Microsoft these days and everybody loves to jump on the band wagon. Personally I try to have no allegence to one company or another. I mean, really, who cares. Macs are cool, Google is cool, Android is cool...but I hardly think any of these are revolutionary. Take Mac. What is it? They are computers that are very stable and have a slick interface. Right now they are the latest fashion accessory. People buy them, I am convinced, to look cool because Macintosh has marketed them as a 'cool persons' computer. Are they? No...they are just a good computer. At what cost do we get this stability? We have limited abiltiy to upgrade components and soft backward compatibility. Macs stability comes at a cost. Since it inception what have the Mac OS's done? They have built on their same product. Just like Windows. It is not like Mac is coming out with a totally new OS each version. It is just building on the last. Somehow this is seen as more innovative that Windows? I don't get it. They are all doing the same thing...many of htem built on MS ideas to start with.
The iPhone was an innovation but it was not something that had never been concieved before. We had PDA's long before iPhone. To me, it is just another way to package the same idea...albiet in a very cool and usable way.
I could go on and on. Bootm line is I hope all of these companies continue to innovate and push the limits of what is possible. I just wish we as a technology community stopped all the sensational grand standing to support the superiority of 'our favorite' companies and just gave credit where crdit is due.
Microsoft is big, it has been around for a while, but many of the ideas coming out of Redmond are still cool, just like Google, Android, and Mac.
Linux will never...ever...be mainstream. Now that we got that out of the way. 85% of the world's computer run a WIndows OS and 98% of the world's computers have some piece of MS software on it. End of arguement.
I wonder how microsoft an improve kinect... such that it can track finger movements and become a new mouse and keyboard type input device. Lets see if they can do that to help bolster their company.