Analyst: "Glimmer" of Hope for PC Industry in 2013

By Wolfgang Gruener
published

2012 may have been a memorable year for the PC industry, but certainly not in the way processor makers would have hoped.

Even if the traditional PC still controls the lion's share of processor revenues - and is likely to retain that control for some time - the smartphone and tablet have emerged as the far sexier topics that now lock up the enthusiasm the PC once had.

Yet not all hope is lost, at least not according to Evercore Partners analyst Rob Cihra, who informed his clients that "there are 'glimmers of hope' that PC demand will start stabilizing in the 2013 first half," according to an article published by Forbes.

Cihra believes that global PC shipments may come in flat in 2013 over 2012, following a 3 percent drop in 2012. The fourth quarter may be the deepest valley the industry has to cross with a 5 percent decline in shipments over Q4 2011. This is rather remarkable, given the launch of Windows 8 and ultrabooks, both of which carried the hope of reigniting PC sales.

Forbes quotes Cihra: "Much of the supply-chain looks to have needed to under-ship end PCs for a second consecutive quarter of inventory drawdown. Pressures continue to include weak macro and more so tablet cannibalization. Early ultrabooks have been stymied by high prices and Win8 so far looks like a remarkable non-factor."

According to the analyst, Windows 8 and ultrabooks may lift PC shipments in 2013. Sales potential in China also show reason for optimism.

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Wolfgang Gruener
37 Comments Comment from the forums
  • abbadon_34
    Anyone who though Win8 and "Ultrabooks" (as if laptops needed net ANOTHER name to confuse people) were either sorely deluded or shamefully uninformed. The biggest factor in global PC shipments is still the corporate upgrade cycle.
    Reply
  • EzioAs
    If only ultrabooks could be cheaper. I loved the concept and features that they bring but it's still a bit too expensive
    Reply
  • apache_lives
    EzioAsIf only ultrabooks could be cheaper. I loved the concept and features that they bring but it's still a bit too expensive
    Because there a premium product, you want better you pay for it.

    Another aspect why (sadly) Apple dominates -- do you see a cheap rubish "low end" Apple product? NOPE
    Reply
  • tomfreak
    Sorry Intel/AMD/Nvidia/DRAM maker, I will continue to use my 4yrs old core 2 duo 3.2GHz/4GB + 9800GT PC for quite while. Please blame the software developer.
    Reply
  • apache_lives
    TomfreakSorry Intel/AMD/Nvidia/DRAM maker, I will continue to use my 4yrs old core 2 duo 3.2GHz/4GB + 9800GT PC for quite while. Please blame the software developer.
    +1 rubbish console ports and average crappy games that aren't demanding on cpu/video or any bleading edge latest hardware.

    Game makers blame piracy, thats just bs.
    Reply
  • the magpie
    The whole point is not that PCs are less sexy, it's that the PC, the desktop especially has matured as a platform. Like Tomfreak said, a 4+ year old PC can still perform marvelously almost everything you throw at it. The need to constantly upgrade has diminished significantly in the last 5 years or so. Therefore PC sales are starting to stabilize in accordance with the excellent capabilities of the platform. Read more on why the PC is here to stay at: http://saysthemagpie.com/the-desktop-pc-today-death-of-a-legend/
    Reply
  • fuzzion
    the magpieThe whole point is not that PCs are less sexy, it's that the PC, the desktop especially has matured as a platform. Like Tomfreak said, a 4+ year old PC can still perform marvelously almost everything you throw at it. The need to constantly upgrade has diminished significantly in the last 5 years or so. Therefore PC sales are starting to stabilize in accordance with the excellent capabilities of the platform. Read more on why the PC is here to stay at: http://saysthemagpie.com/the-deskt -a-legend/

    You are actually right.

    I remember geforce 1 than 2 than skipped to 5 than 9 than 460gtxsli and skipping 5xx 6xx and waiting for 760ti. The need to upgrade now parallels with the renewel of consoles. Games(2013) are just beginning to use 11dx

    Reply
  • virtualban
    Virtual Reality can be used for production, not just for games. A JohnyMnemonic interface for example. Not even need for gloves. Cameras can find the position of fingers at fractions of millimeter accuracy.
    So, to use the talent of individuals, world, make this a current reality instead of future reality. New demand will come as a result.
    Reply
  • Soda-88
    apache_livesBecause there a premium product, you want better you pay for it.Another aspect why (sadly) Apple dominates -- do you see a cheap rubish "low end" Apple product? NOPEYeah, those Mac Pros with first gen Core i based Xeons and 5000 series Radeons are top notch hardware and are priced competitively. Oh wait...
    Reply
  • memadmax
    The desktop isn't going anywhere.
    Tablets/Smartphones/Small appliance type systems just don't do what desktops can in terms of use/raw power upgradeability etc etc.
    Reply