The Substrate startup has been doing the rounds in the news lately, thanks to its proposition of making chips using particle accelerators and X-rays instead of conventional EUV lithography, claiming it can eventually have angstrom-sized features at only $10,000 per wafer—in U.S. fabs, no less. Those are bold claims, and an article by Fox Chapel Research (FCR) is seriously questioning whether they pay off.
The write-up is the first of two parts, and takes aim at not just the seemingly outlandish technological claims, but also at the track record of the venture's founders, as well as the overall messaging on Substrate's website. The start-up is backed by various investment funds, namely but not only Founders Fund, of whom Peter Thiel is part of.
The report says the founders are James and Oliver Proud, who reportedly have no experience in the semiconductor industry, nor do any of the investor funds. James' latest venture was apparently the Sense sleep tracker, a product that had its inception on Kickstarter to the tune of $2.5m, but didn't materialize until funding rounds raised over $50m. After release, the tracker was found to be borderline useless by reviewers and drew many comparisons to a scam.
The analyst says the iffy track record doesn't end there, as Substrate's registered business address appears to be the same as that of Delaware-incorporated DC Fusion LLC. We couldn't immediately find any information about this venture, though, as we could only track down a Maryland-based company focused on high-voltage DC power lines. The address for DC Fusion LLC appears to be a postbox.
FCR's text also takes potshots at Substrate's offering of extremely vague wording of its technologies and claims that are arguably outlandish. The writer has a point, seeing as once squeezed, there's not much juice in Substrate's website or the information it provided to Semiaccurate a short while back. We went over this information not too long ago and found that while the concept of using a particle accelerator for chipmaking is valid, it's not a new idea at all and is already under the proverbial microscope at a few laboratories.
The author compares the pictures to sample pictures provided by Substrate to those from ASML (the world's leading EUV machine maker), and finds Substrate's samples lacking substance, pointing out they're essentially starter-grade patterns rather than some highly advanced method. FCR also notes that Substrate didn't provide any numbers or concrete information other than a promise that its technology can theoretically create angstrom-sized patterns at low cost.
While on the topic of pictures, according to FCR, the available images of Substrate's lab space also don't quite appear to have any relation to what a chip-making laboratory would look like, void of any of the common machinery you'd expect in lithography, much less particle acceleration. The general feel of the website and data might be construed as that of a typical Silicon Valley startup, offering a grandiose idea in search of funding, with an expectation to "figure it out" later, if at all.
Finally, FCR remarks on the posted job openings at Substrate's site, highlighting parts that are apparently nonsensical and being extremely vague and hopeful, despite looking technical. The analyst compares some of these to "invent and manufacture a new type of automobile to allow employees to arrive at customer locations," and that the requirements would be like "creating a motorsports job posting before the internal combustion engine."
Should Substrate's claims ever hold true, it wouldn't be the first time a company with no apparent experience or track record, with a product resembling vaporware, eventually fulfilled its promise by hiring the right people—just look at Tesla, long derided in its early years as a pie-in-the-sky notion. However, for each Tesla, there are hundreds of thousands of "startups" managing to fleece investors out of their cash for nothing but a promise on a napkin. Time will tell which of those Substrate is.
