Taiwan to up defense spending and develop Iron Dome-inspired missile protection — expert warns one well-placed Chinese missile could make it 'impossible to get a new iPhone for three years'
The global semiconductor supply chain is at serious risk if conflict arises in the Taiwan Strait.
As Taiwan ups defense spending and invests in air defenses to fend of possible missile attacks as part of a foreign invasion, a researcher from the Taiwan National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Hsinchu Science Park Bureau suggested that a single missile strike targeting the Hsinchu Science Park would have catastrophic effects worldwide, resulting in a 6% to 10% drop in global GDP and halting iPhone production for several years. According to Nikkei Asia, Taiwan’s Silicon Valley houses more than 600 tech companies and research bodies, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the largest chip foundry in the world, operating six major fabs in the area.
“If even one missile from China hits a key manufacturing center in Hsinchu, it would probably be impossible to get a new iPhone for three years,” said NSTC Associate Researcher Scott Huang. This was further corroborated by Lien Hsien-ming, the president of the Taiwanese think tank Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, who suggested a global GDP drop of around 6% to 10% because of the disruption in semiconductor production. “Conditions would be catastrophic,” says Lien.
China has always been vocal about its goal of reunifying Taiwan with the mainland, with Beijing saying that it’s willing to use force if necessary. The U.S. intelligence community assesses that the CCP would have the military capability to conduct an invasion of its neighbor by 2027, although this does not mean that it would do so at that time. However, any attack or instability would have a wide-ranging impact on the global semiconductor supply.
Although the U.S. is working hard to reshore chip production, with TSMC making moves to accelerate production of its latest nodes in Arizona, it’s estimated to take at least 20 years before it achieves independence from Taiwan and China. Beijing is also pushing for “semiconductor sovereignty”, with the CCP claiming that its homegrown AI processors could compete against China-only Nvidia H20 and RTX Pro 600D AI chips.
Taiwan is still relying on its “silicon shield” to protect it from invasion, despite moves by the two rivals to build the latest, most powerful chips within their borders. However, the Taiwanese government recognizes this might not be enough, especially if Beijing decides to just destroy TSMC instead of capturing it whole. That’s why the government of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te plans to increase the island’s defense spending to 5% of its GDP and develop T-dome, an air defense system inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome, and help protect it from airborne threats, including aircraft, drones, missiles, and hypersonic weapons.
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Jowi Morales is a tech enthusiast with years of experience working in the industry. He’s been writing with several tech publications since 2021, where he’s been interested in tech hardware and consumer electronics.
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shady28 China's silicon independence moves are indeed more an attack on Taiwan's "silicon dome" than having to do directly with the US - aka Taiwan is currently too important to destroy (China), and too important to let it be destroyed (US & others).Reply
Oddly these moves by both China and the US all lead to one ending sooner or later. Once this silicon dome is mostly removed by one side or the other... -
FunSurfer Taiwan should invest in protective measures anyway, not related to China, as the new future threat from the skies is falling satellites, that can cause the said damage if it crushes on the wrong place.Reply -
pug_s I find propaganda like this about China taking over the Taiwan Island so that they can take over TSMC's plants completely laughable. In 2024, China spent $10.9 billion buying ASML's DUV equipment. This accounts 36% of ASML's revenue which is bigger than the Taiwan Island. TSMC's chips affects the western nations more than it affects China.Reply -
shady28 Replypug_s said:I find propaganda like this about China taking over the Taiwan Island so that they can take over TSMC's plants completely laughable. In 2024, China spent $10.9 billion buying ASML's DUV equipment. This accounts 36% of ASML's revenue which is bigger than the Taiwan Island. TSMC's chips affects the western nations more than it affects China.
That's a poor way to rate things on multiple levels. Taiwan produces 3X the number of chips as China. More importantly, they are much better.
I've read China's claims to have indigenous ability to make 7nm class lithography, but I've also read analysts who I believe are more trustworthy state that China's domestic ability is more along the lines of 16-20nm.
Most fabs are nowhere near any of these numbers. The majority are > 150nm. This would include China.
Here's the breakdown / ranking of the worlds biggest chip producers:
#1 : Taiwan - 60%
#2 : China - 20%
#3 : S. Korea - 17-20%
#4 : Europe - 9-10%
#5 : US - 10%
Europe is ranked higher than the US simply due to the presence of ASML.
The US is likely passing up Europe's volume to a significant degree now.
Source:
https://waferprocess.com/artificial-intelligence/who-makes-the-worlds-chips-top-5-semiconductor-producing-countries-ranked/ -
pug_s Reply
I never said China is the biggest chip manufacturer, but China has been building capacity by buying more Lithography machines than Taiwan Island in the recent years. Since they couldn't buy the latest EUV ones, ASML probably overcharges Chinese companies on the older DUV ones.shady28 said:That's a poor way to rate things on multiple levels. Taiwan produces 3X the number of chips as China. More importantly, they are much better.
I've read China's claims to have indigenous ability to make 7nm class lithography, but I've also read analysts who I believe are more trustworthy state that China's domestic ability is more along the lines of 16-20nm.
Most fabs are nowhere near any of these numbers. The majority are > 150nm. This would include China.
Here's the breakdown / ranking of the worlds biggest chip producers:
#1 : Taiwan - 60%
#2 : China - 20%
#3 : S. Korea - 17-20%
#4 : Europe - 9-10%
#5 : US - 10%
Europe is ranked higher than the US simply due to the presence of ASML.
The US is likely passing up Europe's volume to a significant degree now.
Source:
https://waferprocess.com/artificial-intelligence/who-makes-the-worlds-chips-top-5-semiconductor-producing-countries-ranked/
Second the link below don't make much sense as the percentages of #1 added thru #5 is more than 100%. -
phead128 What's up with these weird titles and articles. Is Tomshardware becoming like TWZ clickbait.Reply
"one well placed North Korean missile can end South Korean semiconductor dreams, Tom Clancy says"