AMD shared the recent Mercury Research CPU market share results, giving us some insight into its gains in the third quarter of 2020. The headline news is that AMD has reached its highest overall market share since 2007 and has its highest desktop PC share since 2013. In terms of the client x86 market, AMD took its highest amount of share since Q2 2011.
The report comes on the heels of AMD's stellar financial results that pointed towards such amazing growth. It also comes after Intel's recent disappointing earnings report –– particularly in terms of Intel's desktop PC processor sales.
But AMD's share gains certainly aren't limited to the desktop PC segment; the company is on a full-court press that sees it gaining share from Intel in every segment that it competes in.
Intel still insists it isn't receiving more competition than it expected, so perhaps the company has planned to cede market share across the board. Intel has also seen a drastic shift in its product mix to lower-priced desktop PC chips, implying that AMD's share gains are coming in the high-end margin-rich segment of the market. You can read more about that here. We also have additional comments from Dean McCarron of Mercury Research in each section below, and he confirms our assertion that AMD is expanding its share in the high-end of the desktop PC market.
AMD's impressive gains in the desktop PC market come before the launch of its Zen 3 Ryzen 5000 processors, which the company claims take the leadership position over Intel in every metric - including Intel's last bastion: Gaming. Those chips land November 5.
Intel won't have a response to Ryzen 5000 until Rocket Lake lands in Q1 2021. That means AMD will likely own the holiday sales season, expanding the gains outlined below in a very rapid fashion. It looks like it will be a long winter for Intel.
Here are the bullet points from AMD, and we have segment-by-segment breakdowns below, including historical data:
- AMD overall x86 CPU share was 22.4%, an increase of 4.1 share points quarter over quarter (QoQ) and 6.3 share points year over year (YoY): Highest share since Q4 2007
- AMD desktop x86 share, excluding IoT, was 20.1%, an increase of 0.9 share points QoQ, and 2.1 share points YoY: AMD desktop share has grown over 12 consecutive quarters: Highest since Q4 2013
- AMD notebook x86 share, excluding IoT, was 20.2%, an increase of 0.3 share points QoQ, and 5.5 share points YoY: AMD notebook share has grown over 12 consecutive quarters: This is a new record for AMD x86 notebook share, eclipsing the previous high of 19.9% set in Q2 2020
- AMD client x86 share, excluding IoT, was 20.2%, an increase of 0.5 share points QoQ, and 4.3 share points YoY: Highest since Q2 2011
AMD vs. Intel Desktop Market Unit Share Q3 2020
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | 3Q20 | 2Q20 | 1Q20 | 4Q19 | 3Q19 | 2Q19 | 1Q2019 | 4Q18 | 3Q18 | 2Q18 | 1Q18 | 4Q17 | 3Q17 | 2Q17 | 1Q17 | 4Q16 | 3Q16 |
| AMD Desktop Unit Share | 20.1% | 19.2% | 18.6% | 18.3% | 18% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 15.8% | 13% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% |
| Quarter over Quarter (QoQ) pp | +0.9 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.9 | Flat | +1.3 | +2.8 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | +1.5 | +0.8 | Row 2 - Cell 17 |
| Year over Year (YoY) pp | +2.1 | +2.1 | +1.5 | +2.4 | +5 | +4.8 | +4.9 | +3.8 | +2.1 | +1.2 | +0.8 | +2.1 | +1.8 | Row 3 - Cell 14 | Row 3 - Cell 15 | Row 3 - Cell 16 | Row 3 - Cell 17 |
AMD has reached 20.1% of the desktop PC market, notching its highest penetration since the fourth quarter of 2013. AMD has grown its desktop PC market share for 12 consecutive quarters.
Here's Dean McCarron's analysis of his report:
"A bit more than 60% of AMD's increased desktop shipments came from what I'd consider high-end (e.g. not dual-core or APU units, so Matisse and a tiny bit of Pinnacle Ridge cores that remain)."
"I'd say 100% of the gain came from the high end for them, because Intel's high end was flat and AMD's high end grew, while Intel's entry-level business out-grew AMD's. Intel's i3/Pentium/Celeron grew very strongly and if you limited the share to just entry-level, Intel would have gained in the third quarter."
AMD vs. Intel Notebook / Mobile Unit Share Q3 2020
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | 3Q20 | 2Q20 | 1Q20 | Q419 | 3Q19 | 2Q19 | 1Q2019 | 4Q18 | 3Q18 | 2Q18 |
| AMD Mobile Unit Share | 20.2% | 19.9% | 17.1% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% |
| Quarter over Quarter / Year over Year (pp) | +0.3 / +5.5 | +2.9 / +5.8 | +0.9 / +3.2 | +1.5 / +4.0 | +0.7 / +3.8 | +1.0 / +5.3 | +0.9 / ? | Row 2 - Cell 8 | Row 2 - Cell 9 | Row 2 - Cell 10 |
AMD has now reached 20.2% of the notebook market, an impressive 5.5 percentage point gain in one single year. This is by far AMD's fastest-growing market, and it comprises roughly 60% of the client processor market, meaning these gains are very important in terms of overall volume and revenue.
This is also a new record for AMD's notebook share, passing its 19.9% record it set in Q2, 2020.
"I would say Intel's greatly improved availability of i3/Pentium/Celeron had an impact as the on-quarter gains by AMD were much lower than prior quarters, especially in mobile -- AMD mobile share was up 0.3 points v. 2.9 points in Q2 and 0.8 points in Q1, so the gains are slowing and Intel appears to be in the process of catching up. I expect the market will continue to get more competitive in the upcoming quarters, especially in the low end, due to Intel's entry-level capacity increasing so much," said McCarron.
AMD vs. Intel Server Unit Market Share Q3 2020
AMD bases its server share projections on IDC's forecasts but only accounts for the single- and dual-socket market, which eliminates four-socket (and beyond) servers, networking infrastructure and Xeon D's (edge). As such, Mercury's numbers differ from the numbers cited by AMD, which predict a higher market share. Here is AMD's comment on the matter: "Mercury Research captures all x86 server class processors in their server unit estimate, regardless of device (server, network or storage), whereas the estimated 1P [single-socket] and 2P [two-socket] TAM [Total Addressable Market] provided by IDC only includes traditional servers."
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | 3Q20 | 2Q20 | 1Q20 | 4Q19 | 3Q19 | 2Q19 | 1Q2019 | 4Q18 | 3Q18 | 2Q18 | 4Q17 |
| AMD Server Unit Share | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Quarter over Quarter / Year over Year (pp) | +0.8 / +2.3 | +0.7 / +2.4 | +0.6 / 2.2 | +0.2 / +1.4 | +0.9 / +2.7 | +0.5 / +2.0 | -0.3 / - | +1.6 / 2.4 | +0.2 / - | Row 2 - Cell 10 | Row 2 - Cell 11 |
McCarron shared the server results from the report, which AMD did not include in its communications with the press, saying "According to Mercury, AMD also gained QoQ and YoY in the x86 server market. AMD utilizes a server-specific TAM of roughly 20 million CPUs, based on IDC data. We will update our x86 server share once IDC Q3 2020 data is available."
In either case, the report shows that AMD did gain share in the server market by Mercury Research's calculations, though McCarron says that AMD's growth was hindered by a sharp increase in Intel's Atom SoC shipments this quarter.
"AMD gained server share by either measure, but if you compared AMD EPYC v. just Intel Xeon SP, the number would be about 12.1 percent v. 10.4 percent last quarter, which is a pretty strong gain. This is mostly because Intel's Xeon SP business declined to do a downturn in cloud and a big downturn in enterprise/government sales, while AMD's server products set a new revenue record as they're still growing. With Intel's high Atom SoC growth included, though, the share gain is much smaller at 0.8 points," McCarron expanded.
AMD vs. Intel Total Market Share Q3 2020
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | 3Q20 | 2Q20 | 1Q20 | 4Q19 | 3Q19 | 2Q19 | 4Q18 | 3Q18 |
| AMD Client | 20.2% | 19.7% | 17.5% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 15% | 13.5% | 11.6% |
| Client PP Change QoQ / YoY | +0.5 / +4.3 | +2.2 / +4.7 | -0.5% / ? | +1.1 / +3.5 | +0.8 / +4.2 | ? | ? | - |
| AMD Overall x86 | 22.4% | 18.3% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 10.6% |
| Overall PP Change QoQ / YoY | +4.1 / +6.3 | +3.5 / +1.2 (+3.7?) | -0.7 / ? | +0.9 / +3.2 | +0.7 / +4 | ? | ? | - |
Perhaps the best overall view comes from the overall x86 market share. AMD has now reached 22.4% of the market, a stunning 6.3 percentage point gain over the prior year. This is the company's highest share since Q4 2007.
In terms of client x86 share (excluding IoT), AMD has reached 20.2%, a 4.3 percentage point gain on the year. That's the highest since Q2 2011.
